Tag Archive | "seahawks"

The Degenerate: Week 14, Monday Night – Are You Really Going to Watch This Game?

So we finally got ourselves a winner on Sunday. The Eagles looked pretty good. Yeah, they put up 24 of their 26 points in a big 2nd quarter burst, but they looked pretty good on defense with nine sacks, two fumble recoveries and an interception. And Shady was able to find the end zone twice (but only managed 38 yards rushing). But really the Dolphins showed that they just aren’t that good, and Matt Moore isn’t a big game QB. Besides that nice TD pass to Brandon Marshall he really didn’t do too much before he left with an injury.

The Eagles defense was swarming on Sunday

So yeah, the Eagles are still alive for the division title. We still need a ton of help and alot of breaks have to go our way, but it’s not over (yet). Actually it probably is, but I’m #ALLIN and I’m not giving up hope until we are mathematically eliminated.  We get the Jets at the Linc next week. Rex Ryan comes into town, so hide your daughters… and lock up your refrigerators.

But let’s put away the pipe dreams for one more week. Tonight is Monday Night, so you know what that means: Jaws, Jon Gruden, Mike Tirico and quite possibly the worst Monday Night Football matchup all season.

5-7 Seattle is hosting 2-10 St Louis. Rams QB Sam Bradford is hurting and backup AJ Feeley is already declared OUT, so the Rams could be playing some guy named Tom Brandstater at QB (no shit, I’m not making that up). They also claimed Kellen Clemons off of waivers, so he could get some action too. So your starter could be an injured Sam Bradford,  Tom Brandstater, or some guy they signed last Wednesday.

We’ve already had to sit through Tyler Palko and the Chiefs at New England. And Jacksonville hosted San Diego last week and that wasn’t that great either. But this one is a crappy matchup of epic proportions. But no worries, I’ll break it down and pick a winner for us (para la única diversión).

Marshawn should have another big game

Seattle is a -9 point favorite in this one, the Over/Under is 38. Vegas was hesitant to make a line on this game without knowing the status of Sam Bradford. The Hilton Supercontest put the line as Seattle -7.5, and people jumped all over it. 109 contestants picked Seattle -7.5, while only 22 went with St. Louis. (The Supercontest is an open invitation contest where entrants pony up $1500 to try to prove they are the best handicapper in the country, picking five games against the spread every week. Winner takes all.) We know that the Supercontest 7.5 point spread was low because the true “opening number” for this game was Seattle -9.5 (at least the ones I saw). The line has settled on -9 this morning after being bet up to -10 over the weekend. Seems like the news this morning that Bradford should be playing brought in some Rams money.

But really, the question here isn’t if the Seahawks can win, it is can they cover the 9 point line? And we might see this line go up even more, I mean if you’re betting on the game you aren’t going to put your money on the 2-10 Rams and their shaky QB situation, are you?

One saying I learned early in my gambling life was “never rely on a bad team to do good things.” And tonight you’re going to rely on the Rams (and whomever their QB is tonight) to get motivated and go into a hostile stadium and hang with a Seattle team that is still (barely) alive for a wildcard playoff berth.

Hey look, it's the last four Rams fans.

Seattle had an impressive win at home last week over the Eagles, and they’ve won three of their last four games and covered the spread in four of their last five. To say St Louis has struggled would be an understatement. They’re 2-10 straight up and against the spread, and they got shutout last week at San Francisco.

I don’t see how the Rams can stay in this game. They have the #31 ranked team in overall efficiency (thankfully for them the Colts are playing even worse), and the 32nd (worst) ranked offense. Seattle counters with the #11 defense. The Rams will have a tough time moving the ball. With all the problems at QB lately, opposing teams really only have to key on Steven Jackson, you stop him, you stop the Rams offense. Seattle should be able to do that, they come in with the #9 rush defense.

Seattle has owned the Rams lately. Since 2005 the Seahawks are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in this series. These two teams met back in Week 10, and the Seahawks won that one 24-7, holding the Rams (with Sam Bradford at QB) to 210 yards total offense.

The combination of the Seattle defense, Seattle home field advantage and the Rams inept offense means that I’m taking Seattle -9 in this one.

I don’t expect alot of points, I could see the Seahawks playing a conservative game, alot of Marshawn Lynch on the ground (remember him, Eagles fans?) and Tarvaris Jackson trying not to lose the game and sticking with short passes. Even if Sam Bradford sucks it up and plays, I don’t see him being effective with his injured ankle.

I see Seahawks getting it done in a low scoring game, boring game. Good luck if you’re going to watch it. How about Marshawn Lynch leads the Seattle offense, the Rams continue to struggle on offense and the Seahawks win 24-10.

The Line: Seattle -9, O/U 38
The Pick: Seattle -9
Game trends (via Covers.com): St. Louis: 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games; Seattle: 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.

The Over/Under on ‘Skittles’ mentions tonight? I’m setting it a 5. And I’m going OVER.





Season Record: 17-16. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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Time’s Yours Podcast: The Eagles Find The Bottom

I sent a text to Lee Russakoff this morning that said “do you still want to do this today? I don’t even know what to talk about besides DeSean Jackson.”

The Eagles finally beat the life out of me. As it turned out, Lee wanted to do the podcast in part to talk about our debate over peanut butter vs. cream cheese. Then we got to the Eagles.

Man, they suck.

Follow Lee Russakoff on Twitter @LeeRussakoff

Subscribe to the Time’s Yours podcast on iTunes by clicking here.

Subscribe to the Time’s Yours podcast by RSS by clicking here. 

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The Degenerate: Week 13 Thursday Night Pick, U-G-L-Y

So, I’ve had this Eagles / Seahawks game circled on my calendar ever since the Eagles started 1-4. Based on my crazy wishful thinking back in October, this was the week that the Eagles would overtake the Giants and get into 1st place. I had the Giants losing a bunch of their recent games (they did drop three of their last four, so I was right about that), the Eagles would be surging and a win this week over Seattle, coupled with a Giants loss this Sunday vs Green Bay, would move the Birds into 1st place. Well, that sorta didn’t turn out like I planned.

I finally have an excuse to use this Vince Young picture.

Now we’re stuck with a Thursday Night NFL Network primetime matchup of 4-7 teams, and who’s leading the charge you ask?? Well, it’s Vince Young and Tarvaris Jackson.

To the rest of America, I will say… I’m sorry you have to sit through this.

But I’m an Eagles fan and I’ll watch every play of this game, no matter how painful it becomes. Last Sunday I had the pleasure of listening to the Eagles/Patriots game on the radio, the ‘theater of the mind’, every word from Merrill Reese that poured out of the speakers had me visualizing Tom Brady ripping apart the Eagles defense, or what was supposed to be a defense. The ‘Fire Andy’ chants were short-lived but loud when the did happen, I heard them clear as day on my radio. The natives are getting restless. I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but can we just give up on the Juan Castillo Experience already? Enough of this. I’m half expecting Jeff Lurie to pull back the curtain and let us in on his own personal Truman Show.

That Patriots game was ugly. But this week if the Eagles can recover and get a win, improve to 5-7 and… move one game closer to ending the season.

But in brighter news, we went 3-1 last week with the picks. 2-1 on Thanksgiving Day and another Monday Night winner (7-3 on the season on Monday nights).

So stick with us and we’ll recap our Week 12 picks, then we’ll breakdown the Eagles/Seahawks and make a pick in that one. You’re gonna watch it, so you might as well bet on it, right? (for amusement purposes only, obviously)

Week 12 Revisited

It was a good week.

Like I said earlier, the picks went 3-1 last week. It was a pretty nice weekend. Even I was a little surprised at how easily the Packers and Saints covered, Baltimore defense did what I expected and shut down the 49ers. The Cowboys? Well, when I need them to score a bunch of points, they can only manage 20. F the Cowboys.

We’re 16-12 overall on the season, not too bad (All of the 2011 picks are documented here.). And that number includes losing 5 out of 6 games a few weeks ago. Let’s hope we keep the momentum going this week, starting with our pick for the Thursday Night Eagles game…

Thursday Night Football

TNF Bet #1: (a.k.a “The 2nd String is now the 1st String” pick): Eagles / Seahawks UNDER 43.5

Juan, 'just tackle the guy with the ball' isn't one of our defensive formations.

As soon as I started thinking about this Eagles / Seahawks game on Monday my first thought was to go with the UNDER. Both teams are struggling offensively, the Eagles are pretty banged up and travelling out west and playing Thursday night after a Sunday beatdown like they got against the Patriots will not be easy.

This game opened as Eagles -3.5, O/U 45.5, and then everyone on the Eagles got hurt and the total dropped to 43.5, I wouldn’t be surprised if that total dropped to 43, or 42.5 by kickoff. The wiseguys, and the public at large, is wondering how the points will be scored. I know I am. This is the lowest total for an Eagles game this season.

First, the obvious statement, both teams aren’t playing that good this season and neither are fighting for a playoff spot. So it’s kind of hard to handicap two teams playing without any motivation. Then you factor in the injuries on the Eagles, the list is long and distinguished. Mike Vick and Jeremy Maclin are OUT. DRC is still OUT too (that could be a good thing, jk). Now Nnamdi and Shady McCoy are game time decisions? And in the ‘non-injury’ department DeSean Jackson has a bruised ego and is destined to not give 100% tonight. It’s a given that he doesn’t want to get hurt in a meaningless game and ruin his free agent value. So pretty much every decent player on the Eagles is banged up.

Seattle is coming in struggling on offense. Over the past 6 games they are only scoring 12 points a game, not good. FootballOutsiders.com has Seattle as the 26th ranked offense, 196 yards per game passing and 97 yards per game rushing. Not very potent. But the Eagles counter with the 19th ranked defense. So it’s a good thing Seattle sucks moving the ball. I mean I know Tom Brady tore them up last week, but is Tarvaris Jackson even half the QB of Tom Brady? I say no. Seattle’s leading receiver is Doug Baldwin (who?). Next is Ben Obomanu with 295 yards receiving on the year. Sidney Rice was their #1 WR but he’s out this week with a concussion.

Marshawn Lynch is the key tonight

Running the ball it’s all Marshawn Lynch. I think he is the only offensive weapon the Seahawks have. He started very slowly but has turned it on the past few weeks so he is someone to watch. But if Seattle sticks with the run game, that can only help the UNDER. I expect the Eagles to gameplan against Lynch and try to make Jackson beat them passing.

The Eagles offense is tough to predict. Started strong early in the year, but they have only put up 19 .5 points a game over the last 4 games. Vince Young has had some decent numbers last week but alot of it was in garbage time. He hasn’t been terrible in his two starts, but I wouldn’t want to rely on him with the game on the line.

I was hoping for alot of Shady on the ground this week but it looks like he will be a gametime decision with a sprained toe. I guess that might leave the RB duties to… Dion Lewis? Ronnie Brown? Well, Seattle has the #8 rush defense, so they would probably eat those 2 guys alive. So I expect Shady to play, mainly because the Eagles really don’t have a #2 back. And if Shady does play, he will be limited. Again, more reason to go UNDER.

So it seems like it will be up to DeSean Jackson to be the playmaker this week. Hopefully he will be mentally ready.

And former Seahawk Jason Babin gets himself Tweet of the Week honors with this one…


Distain, nice. That sounds like some Dirty Harry/Death Wish shit right there. Mike Holmgren better watch his back (Jason does know that Holmgren is out of Seattle and works for the Cleveland Browns now, right?)

Sportsbookspy.com is showing 56% of the action is going to the UNDER, so this pick is not original.

The trends are against us on this one: Seattle 4-1 OVER at home this year, and the Eagles are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 road games. But I’m bucking those trends tonight.

I think this game will be a borefest (sorry, but it’s true), with both offenses struggling to move the ball. Maybe a few big plays here and there but overall a slow paced game. The Eagles are still the better team and I think Andy has them ready to get a road win, 20-10 Eagles on top.

I would expect the Eagles to cover the 3.5 points, but I’m not taking a side. With this Eagles team, who knows what you will get.

The Line: Eagles -3.5,  O/U 43.5
The Pick: Eagles/Seahawks UNDER 43.5

Back on Friday with the Sunday pick.





Season Record: 16-12. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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The Degenerate: Week 9, The Friday Pick. How ‘Bout Them Cowboys!

Here we are, Friday. Time for some picks. Last week was a bit rough, 1-2 with a tough loss on the Chargers on Monday night to end the week. But no worries, we’ll get ’em this week.  We’re still 10-6 on the season (see all the picks here), and 9-4 over the past four weeks.

The Eagles are playing on Monday night this week, so I’ll be making that pick in my Monday Night Football column on Monday (have I said Monday enough?). But we still have a full slate of games to choose from on Sunday. We’re looking at seven games with a line of seven points of higher, last week was the week of the underdog (three double-digit dogs covered last week), will this be the week of the blowouts? We’ll see.

There is no line posted on the Rams/Cardinals game yet because of injuries to Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb. That game could be the worst game of the season, and I have no interest in handicapping a game between two terrible teams using backup QB’s. John Skelton vs. AJ Feeley? No thanks.

There were a few game I looked at, but decided not to make a play on…

Sorry Tim, you aren't cutting it.

Raiders -8′ over Broncos – Tebow sucks. There, I said it. I’m sure he’s a good guy but as an NFL QB, he just isn’t ready yet. Last week the Broncos got whooped 45-10 at home by Detroit, now they travel to Oakland. The Raiders are good and they should cover this line. This is a big rivalry, so the Raiders will have no issues with whopping up on the Broncos. But I hesitated for a few reasons. 1) Darren McFadden is hurting and probably won’t play. He’s been a bit of a bust this season, but he’s their #1 back. 2) Carson Palmer hasn’t proven that he is ready to be a QB again. He stunk in his Raiders debut vs. the Chiefs, throwing three INT’s. I don’t want to lay 8′ to find out that Carson Palmer is washed up. I’d lean to the Raiders, mainly because I don’t know how the Broncos will score any points. But I’m passing on making this a Friday pick.

49ers -4’ over Redskins – This line screams ‘Bet the 49ers!’ The Redskins got shutout against Buffalo last week, and the Bills have a mediocre defense. Now the big, bad 49ers defense is coming to town, how will John Beck lead this team to any scores? Santana Moss is out so there is no real pass threat. San Francisco is good, 5-2 with a 3 game lead in the NFC West. The Redskins are 3-4, but they’ve lost three in a row. I would go with the 49ers at any line under 6 points, but traveling East to play the early game is never a good position to bet on. I would think the 49ers can win this one like 27-10, but I’ll pass.

Maybe a Raiders/49ers ‘Bay Area’ teaser would be a decent play. But as individual bets, I’m going to pass on both. But I did find one game that  I thought had some value on Sunday. And in Monday’s post I’ll make a pick on the Eagles / Bears MNF matchup. On to the Friday Pick…

Bet #1 (The “You’re telling me I gotta cheer for the Cowboys?” pick) Dallas Cowboys -11.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks

Get up, Romo. You gotta win us some money!

I know, I know, screw the Cowboys. I’m with you, believe me. But let’s step back and look at this game without our Green and White glasses on. Dallas isn’t a bad team. They have a pretty good defense (maybe that defense didn’t show up last week, but it’s still good) and they have good skill position players. They have DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones (questionable) running the ball. And Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten catching the ball. Yeah, Tony Romo isn’t the best, but he’s pretty good and should be fine against the Seattle pass defense. It’s those close games down to the wire where he seems to crap the bed. And I don’t think this one will be close.

But let’s not bury the lede here, Seattle isn’t very good and that’s why I’m picking this game. They are 2-5. One win against Arizona (13-10) and a “how did they pull that off?” 36-25 upset over the Giants in the Meadowlands (Giants were our pick in that game in Week 5, so I remember it well). They have some bad losses @Cleveland (6-3), vs. Cincinnati (34-12), @Pittsburgh (24-0) and @San Francisco (34-17). They also lost a home game to Atlanta 30-28, but they were losing that game by 20 in the 3rd quarter and staged a miracle comeback that came up short at the end. I think the Cowboys will continue the trend and get a big win at home over the Seahawks.

But let’s look at the numbers to see why I think that:

Seattle offense vs. Dallas defense

The Cowboys should get to Tavaris this Sunday

Seattle cannot score. They’re putting up 15.6 points per game (27th out of 32). Their offense is sluggish, and they have no running game (to put it lightly). 284 total yards per game (31st), 206.3 pass yards per game (25th), 77.7 rushing yards per game (31st). FootballOutsiders.com has Seattle as #29th in offensive efficiency, #23 in passing, #31 in rushing. Not good.

Dallas defense is pretty good. I know they got smoked by the Eagles last week, but let’s be honest, Vick and Shady McCoy are leaps and bounds better than Tavaris Jackson (or Charlie Whitehurst) and Marshawn Lynch. Cowboys are 8th in Overall Defensive Efficiency, #10 in Rush, #10 in Pass. Seattle’s young offensive line has allowed the most sacks in the NFL (28). DeMarcus Ware could be in for a big day.

Missing Sean Lee could be an issue for the Cowboys D, but the lack of a running threat from Seattle and a whole week of preparation will help make up for Lee’s absence. Seattle has a young offensive line that could be exploited by the Cowboys pass rush. It could be a tough day for whoever the Seahawks put behind center. It looks like Tavaris Jackson will be starting. He was hurt last week and was supposed to sit but came in after Charlie Whitehurst started poorly, Jackson put up 323 yard passing against Cincinnati. Not a bad performance, we’ll see if he can do it again against that Cowboys pass rush.

Dallas Offense vs. Seattle Defense
Dallas is putting up almost 400 yards per game, good for 8th in the NFL. They’re near the top in passing with 294 yards per game (7th). Surprisingly, their rushing stats aren’t very good, 15th overall in rush yards per game and 29th on FootballOutsiders.com rushing efficiency. But the addition of DeMarco Murray is really paying off. Even last week vs. the Eagles Murray managed 9 yards a carry. He didn’t get much work because they fell behind so quickly they had to go right to the passing attack to try to make up the deficit but when he got the ball he made the most of it. Murray should get a good number of touches this week.

Fantasource, in his Sunday attire this week.

Seattle does have a good rush defense (#3), but not much of a pass defense (#29). The Cowboys counter with the #5 offensive line/pass protection, but are low ranked (#21) in run blocking. So I’m thinking a big day from Tony Romo (yeah, I think he has it in him), Miles Austin and Dez Bryant.

The intangibles are also pointing to the Cowboys. Dallas is coming home off of a bad loss, now they’re playing a weaker team, and it’s a must win game. Dallas is still very much alive in the NFC East division race. This is a good spot for the Cowboys to get a comfortable win. Seattle is having issues with injuries (QB Tavaris Jackson is hurting) and team chemistry (RB Marshawn Lynch was seen yelling at coaches last week after another bad game). And Seattle has put up 2 sub-par offensive performances in a row (3 points against Cleveland, 12 points against Cincinnati). I see the Cowboys letting out some frustration vs. Seattle.

I could name 10 things I’d rather do than cheer for the Cowboys, but this week you may as well call me Jerry Jones Jr. The Cowboys are coming home off of a bad loss, they are playing a below average opponent and they are in a must-win spot. I think the Cowboys get it done on Sunday and cover the 11.5 point line.

How about a final of Cowboys 31 Seahawks 10.

The Line: Cowboys -11.5, O/U 44.5
The Pick: Cowboys -11.5

So there you go. Dallas over Seattle. Go put on your Troy Aikman jersey and root for America’s Team (sorry, I promise I won’t make you cheer for the Cowboys again).

Coming on Monday, the Eagles / Bears pick. Good luck this weekend!





Season Record: 10-6. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

  • Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
  • Email me fantasource@gmail.com
  • Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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The Degenerate: Week 5, The Friday Picks… Bet On Eli?

So here we are, the Friday picks. Let’s try to keep the momentum alive from last week and come out with a little money in our pocket (for amusement purposes only, of course). Can the Eagles get it done in Buffalo? Is Seattle primed for a North Jersey beatdown? Read on to find out.

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