Tag Archive | "Patriots"

The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Pick – So, Who Do You Hate Less?

Like Huey Lewis said, “So, this is it.” It’s the last Degenerate column for the 2011-12 NFL season. And you know what, I think this season was pretty successful. Yeah, we had some rough patches (like losing 5 in a row at one point), but we are ending the season on a nice streak, hitting 9 of our last 11 picks. Sweet.

We had a winner in the AFC Championship with the Ravens +7 over the Patriots. Now let’s end the season on a high note with a Super Bowl winner. That would make me happy, and it would put us at 26-18 (59%) on the season. Not too shabby. And as an added bonus, we also solicited Super Bowl picks from some “Friends of SpikeEskin.com”, including meteorologist/sports nut John Bolaris.

Yesterday, I posted my picks in some Super Bowl props, The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Props – Fishnets, Gatorade and Belly Buttonscheck it out here.

The ‘Friends of SpikeEskin.com’ picks:

Spike Eskin – 94WIP, CBS, this site (@SpikeEskin):

Prediction: Giants – (-12) over Patriots (-17)

In the worst Super Bowl of all time, the Giants prevail with a negative score. The refs will discuss for over an hour whether -12 is actually greater than -17. Eli Manning will look like he’s smelling a fart. At least the hoodie will go to sleep sad.

 

Cranekicker from CraneKickChronicles.com (@Cranekicker)

Prediction: Patriots 27 Giants 20

Rationale: I want both teams to lose but I have come to grips with that being impossible. And despite what a local shockjock wrote in a recent column, I cannot root for the Giants. The only time you will catch me cheering for the Giants is when they are fumbling or throwing interceptions.

The truth is, Eli Manning is really good and the Giants run a great organization and I can’t stand it. I’d rather have Boston fans yucking it up from a far than loud mouthed New Yorkers right around the corner professing their love for Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning when really they tried to run both of them out of town. So I lay my hopes with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. This all makes me sick. Thank God for buffalo chicken dip and block pools. Brady with a late TD to Hernandez for the win. Here’s a picture of Andre Tippett.
Andre Tippett

 

Pat Gallen from Phillies Nation and 97.3 ESPN Radio (@PatGallen_PN):

Prediction: Giants 30, Pats 26. It pains me to go this way, but the Giants D is playing really well right now, and the Patriots D isn’t really all that great. Eli wins…dammit

 

John Bolaris (@JohnBolaris):

Prediction: Giants 27, Pats 24. Don’t like Pats D. Giants going in Hot. Eli has been huge this year especially 4th quarter. Brady can still cut u up like a fine surgeon. And what is against the Giants, the pure probability factor that it’s really tough to beat any NFL team twice in the same year especially when you’re dealing with Pats & Brady. That being said Pats defense should be their downfall. JB

 

Meech – the guy who killed The Fightins (@meechone):

Prediction: Giants 30, Pats 24 (OT)

 

CBS3’s Chris May (@chrismayphilly):

Prediction: Patriots 27 Giants 21. Brady’s your MVP.

 

Zoo With Roy (@zoowithroy):

Prediction: YEAH GIRL PUT IT IN THE BANK: Giants 37, Pats 34

 

CSN’s Marshall Harris (@mharrisCSN):

Prediction: I got the Giants 35-31.

 

Philly.com’s Ryan Petzar(@petzrawr):

Prediction: 21-10 Pats.

 

Dan Roche – Daily News Live Producer  (@RochesRWinners):
Some predictions:

Duration of Kelly Clarkson’s National Anthem:

Over 1:34
Under 1:34
Will be delayed until she finishes her sandwich 

Will Clarkson show her midriff?

Yes (1/3)
No (4/1)
My eyes!! My eyes!! √

What will be higher on Super Bowl Sunday?

Patriots points(-115)
LeBron James points vs Raptors (-115)
Drexel University’s campus (no line) 

What will be shown more frequently?
Peyton Manning’s Face
The “Eli Manning Face” 

Oh yeah, the game:

Patriots 27 (-2½) √
Giants 24

 

Kevin Cooney of PhillyBurbs.com (@KevinCooney)

Too many people are taking Eli and Coughlin… I’m going with opposite world. I can’t see Brady and Belichick losing two Super Bowls to the same team. Plus, the Giants won’t be able to cover the two tight ends.

Prediction:Patriots 31, Giants 24


Ok, not that my pick carries any more weight than those above (who am I kidding, this is the only one that matters), but here we go…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “I only watch it for the commercials” pick)
New England Patriots -2½ over New York Giants

My money is on this guy.

In a ‘lesser of two evils’ selection, I’m going with the Patriots.

Picking this game is kind of like choosing between stubbing your toe or banging your funnybone. Neither one is too appealing. On the one hand you have the Patriots. God’s gift to the NFL (or so their fans would make you think), they have a Hall of Fame QB, an evil wizard coach and no defense, yet they are scoring at a record pace and went 15-3. The Pats have 7 Super Bowl appearances and 3 Lombardi Trophy’s. On the other hand you have the Giants. Yeah, no further explanation necessary. I’ve been raised since day 1 to hate strongly dislike the Giants, and it seems like every few years they just go out of their way to rub my face in it. They have 3 Super Bowl titles in 5 appearances. (But I thought we were the Dream Team?)

My outfit on Sunday.

I put my personal biases aside and I looked at this game with a neutral eye. And when I broke it down I just think the Patriots are the better team with the better coach and the better QB. Yeah, their defense stinks, but that isn’t news. The Gronkowski injury is distracting people from the bigger picture, even without Gronk the Patriots have another very good tight end (Aaron Hernadez) and Wes Welker, the receiving corp is going to be fine. Brady is going against the 21st ranked pass defense, he’ll do alright. The Broncos had the 24th ranked pass defense and you saw what he did to them, twice. Two weeks ago they played the Baltimore Ravens (the best defense in the NFL) and they were able to put up 23 points. The Pats running game is pretty good too, 4th ranked overall. BenJarvus Green-Ellis should be able to move the ball against the Giants 19th ranked rush defense. Pats Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien is leaving New England to coach Penn State, so there is some extra motivation (if it was even needed) to send him out a winner.

I expect the Giants to try to take advantage of the New England pass defense, so expect lots of Eli Manning passes, and he has some pretty good weapons to work with. Manningham, Cruz and Nicks. That’s three solid receivers right there. And the Giants running game is decent, Bradshaw and Jacobs should see alot of touches, especially if New York gets an early lead. I’m not saying the Patriots will shut down Eli and the Giants defense, I just think that the Patriots defense will be ready.

I’ll keep it short, here are 3 reasons why I like the Patriots to win and cover on Sunday:

  1. Nah, this isn't gonna happen again.

    This is a revenge game (times two) for New England. Not only did the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII to ruin the Patriots undefeated season, they also went into Foxboro this season in Week 9 and beat New England. After that loss the Patriots went on a 10 game winning streak. Brady isn’t going to forget that Week 9 loss, nor has he forgotten that 2008 Super Bowl upset. He has a chance to right a wrong on the biggest stage of all.

  2. Everyone is betting the Giants. So, naturally I have to look to the other side. The early money came in on the Giants, which makes sense. The early bettors grabbed the Giants at +3½ and the line dropped to +3. And even more  money came in on the Giants, forcing the line to drop further to 2½ on Friday morning. And laying 2½ is where you bang the Patriots. From Covers.com: “The majority of the early money, both sharp and square, has been on the Giants. CNBC’s Darren Rovell tweeted that 80 percent of the max $25,000 bets at the offshore sportsbook BetOnline.com were on the Giants”.
  3. The Patriots are the better team. Yes, everyone says “the defense stinks”, “Eli is gonna light them up”. Well, they’ve had the same terrible defense all season, and they’re 15-3. They average 32 points per game, and they only give up 20 points. Compare that to the Giants. New York scores 25 and gives up 23. So, shouldn’t we be saying the Giants defense stinks? I don’t know, this seems like a pretty even matchup and if I’m laying down my money on either Eli or Brady, I’ll take Brady.

I’ll say, the Patriots get their revenge in front of an enormous TV audience, in the most anticipated Super Bowl in recent memory, in Peyton Manning’s living room. Brady and the Patriots win, 27-20.

The Line: New England -2½, O/U 54
The Pick: New England -2½
Game Trends (via Covers.com): New England: 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games. New York: 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.

Thanks for reading the NFL picks column all year, good luck!!

(Yes, I’ll be back with some other stuff, March Madness, baseball, NBA playoffs, etc.)

Fantasource

Season Record: 25-18. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

Posted in Fun Stuff, National Sports, The Degenerate's PicksComments (2)

The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Props – Fishnets, Gatorade and Belly Buttons.

Well, it’s finally here. The Super Bowl.

Back in August when all of us Eagles fans were looking ahead to the season I’m sure alot of us pictured the Eagles playing this week. Well, we all know what happened. Not quite a Super Bowl run, but an interesting season nonetheless. Andy is coming back, Juan is coming back, pretty much the same story next year, let’s hope we have more success. But enough about the Birds, it’s Super Bowl week.

We’re going to approach the Super Bowl in two installments here at SpikeEskin.com. Today, we’ll take a look at prop bets. Prop bets are those crazy bets that you hear people talking about on TV and radio, pretty much any scenario you want to bet on is available.  They make for interesting conversation, and keep people talking during the leadup to the game when nothing else is happening.

Some are pretty basic football bets, “How many passing attempts for Tom Brady?”, “How many completions for Eli Manning?”. But the ‘wacky’ prop bets are the ones that get most of the attention, bets like “Who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first in his postgame interview?”, “How many times will they show Robert Kraft on camera”, stuff like that. I don’t know if there is any real way to handicap some of these, but I’ll break a few down and give out my picks.

So, today it’s the prop bets and tomorrow will be the picks. I’ll make a pick in the game (as usual), but I’m pretty excited to say that we’ll also have Super Bowl picks from some of our favorite folks in the internet world (Twitter legends, bloggers, local celebs, etc.). Spike hasn’t unvelied the complete list to me, but some of the early names look interesting. That should be a fun read tomorrow.

I found these props and their odds from Sportsbook.com, but these props and many, many others are available at almost all online sports books (and in the Vegas casinos, as well). Even my local guy offers a long list of props to pick from. I included a PDF from Sportsbook.com if you want to print some out and bring them to your Super Bowl party (for amusement purposes only, of course).

Last year a buddy of mine had Jordy Nelson to score the first TD at 11-1. And yeah, when Nelson broke that TD and scored, it was cha-ching for him. Nice payday and it was still the first quarter. These payouts aren’t as high paying, but they will be fun to track, so let’s get to it…

1) What will be higher Eli Manning Completions (+120) or Lebron James Points (-150)

Yup, you can bet on LeBron in a Super Bowl prop

Before you decide on this wager you need to put a number on both options. Eli’s completions? Flacco went 22-36 for 306 yards vs. the Patriots 2 weeks ago, so you can use that as a starting point. So, you have to think Eli will do something similar, his over/under for completions is 24.5 with more juice on the Over, so Vegas thinks around 25/26. So how about we say 26 total completions for Eli.

LeBron plays the Raptors on Sunday afternoon. That game should be a blow out, and I don’t expect LeBron to play the whole game. But even 3 quarters of LeBron will get you 26+ points. LeBron has been held under 26 points only 4 times this season.

Fantasource says: I’ll take LeBron to have more points. But it could be close. How about Eli completes 26, LeBron scores 30.

2) What will be higher Tom Brady TD Passes (-115) or Bruins Total Goals (-115)

How many TD’s do you think Tom Brady will throw? I’ll say 3. That’s just a guess. I know for sure that he won’t throw 6 like he did against the Broncos. And the Bruins goals? They’re leading the NHL in goals per game (3.5), and they play the Capitals who give up 2.8 goals per game. So let’s say 3+ goals for the Bruins.

Fantasource says: I’ll take the Bruins Total Goals to be higher. It’s gonna be tough for Brady to get more than 3 TD’s. I’ll wager that the Bruins have a decent chance at 4+ goals.

3) How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem? From first note starts until she completes saying “Brave”.

Over 1 minute 34 Seconds (-120)
Under 1 minute 34 Seconds (-120)

Are we gonna see that belly?

This one is so dumb that you have to love it. And you know what, someone actually did alot of research on this. So here’s all you ever wanted to know, and then some, about the National Anthem prop bet from BeyondTheBets.com. “Super Bowl National Anthem: Will Clarkson’s rendition fall short of 1:34 over/under?”

Fantasource says: BeyondTheBets says Under. But Covers.com says they like the Over. And I say… Under. BeyondTheBets.com makes a more compelling case than Covers.com. But really, if you’re betting this you might have a problem (but that is probably true for most of these prop bets).

4) Will Kelly Clarkson’s bare belly be showing when she sings the National Anthem?

Yes +300

For this one I consulted my pop-culture expert, Mrs. Fantasource. Her analysis was this, “Well, if she shows her belly it won’t be on purpose. She’s a little chunky.”

Fantasource says: Actually Mrs. Fantasource says: “No, at least not on purpose.” So, no bet on this one for me.

5) Will Madonna be wearing fishnet stockings at any point during the Super Bowl Halftime show?

Yes -120
No -120

As much as this might be a “who the hell knows?” type of bet, there is some recent history to go back on. In the past month Madonna has been photographed a few times, most times she is wearing fishnets. I guess the Material Girl is trying fishnets as party of her new look. WagerMinds.com did some research as well and came to the conclusion that ‘Yes’ is a good bet. So believe it or not, I’m saying bet ‘Yes’ on this one.

Fantasource says: Bet Yes. Fishnets are in this season, at least for Madonna, and she will wear them proudly.

6) How many times will David Tyree’s 2008 Super Bowl catch be shown be shown on TV during the game? From kick off until final whistle. Half-time does not count towards wager.

Over 1 (-160)
Under 1 (+120)

You gotta go OVER. No doubt. You have to expect it’s coming at least once, and at that point you’ll have a push. Will it happen twice? Unlikely, but you never know. If it’s late and the game is tight, or if there is a crazy catch by a Giants WR they may show it again.

Fantasource says: Bet OVER. At the very least you should get a push.

7) Which region will have the higher local TV Rating?
Boston -7 (-120)
New York +7 (-120)

I don’t know much about TV ratings, but I know the Bostonians love to watch their Pats. When these teams played in Super Bowl XLII the Giants got crushed in the ratings. Boston came in with a 55.6 local rating, New York got 44.9 local. Why would this year be any different? I think it might even be a higher difference.

Fantasource says: Lay the 7 ratings points (or whatever they’re called) and cash in. Boston is the solid play here. If there was a ‘best bet’, this would be it.

8 ) Longest Completion – Eli Manning (NYG) Over/Under 45½ yards
Over -130
Under EVEN

Fishnets!

I’m going on a hunch here and saying that Eli will be able to find one of his WR’s for a long gain. The Patriots pass defense is not good. I mean, Tebow even got a 41 yard pass in, and he played terrible. Eli got a 66 yard pass against the Packers and 36 yarder against a tough 49ers defense. A combination of a talented Giants receiving corp and a bad Patriots defense makes me say over is a Over.

Fantasource says: I like the OVER 45½ yards. I think Eli will test the Pats pass defense, and Eli’s WR’s have the speed and talent to break a long one.

9) What Color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?

Clear/Water – 2/1
Yellow – 2/1
Orange – 9/4
Red – 11/2
Green – 6/1
Blue – 10/1

Fantasource says: Clear/Water is the choice here, and at 2/1 it’s a nice bet. Bill Belicheck has been doused with only water in his Patriots coaching career. And when the Giants won in 2008, yup, Coughlin got a water bath (see the image at the top). Go with ‘Clear/Water’ and meet me at the cash window for your 2/1 payout.

10) What will be higher, Hakeem Nicks Receptions (-115) OR Total Goals in the Flyers/Rangers game (-115)?

Flyers fans, this one is for you. The Over/Under for Hakeem Nick receptions is 5½, and the juice is on the UNDER. So Vegas is thinking 5 or fewer receptions. But I expect Eli to be tossing all day, and Nicks is one of his main targets. Flyers/Rangers total goals? These teams have played 3 times this season, with total goals of 2,6, and 5. The Rangers are only giving up 2.0 goals per game, and scoring 2.8. The Flyers are scoring 3.3, and surrendering 2.9. We can put the total goals at a max of 6 and hope Hakeem Nicks is Eli’s main target. I like Nicks here.

Fantasource says:  Flyers/Rangers should be low scoring, and Eli should be tossing it all day. I like Nicks’ Receptions to be higher.

So there you have it. Some meaningless prop bets to make the game more enjoyable. You can have action from before the kickoff (National Anthem time), up to after the final whistle has blown (Gatorade bath color).

Good luck!!

 

Fantasource

 

Season Record: 25-18. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

Posted in Eagles, Fun Stuff, National Sports, The Degenerate's PicksComments (1)

I’m Rooting For The Giants In The Super Bowl

I decided to root for the Giants in the Super Bowl instead of the Patriots.

I wrote a piece for CBS Philly about it, and you can read it HERE.

Posted in EaglesComments (1)

Time’s Yours Podcast: The Eagles Nuclear Winter

This Guy

About two weeks ago, it was the NBA that was about to suffer through a nuclear winter.

As it turns out, it’s our oh-so-lovable, underachieving, highly-paid, hometown football team, the Philadelphia Eagles who will have to sift through the rubble to find survivors after disaster.

Will DeSean Jackson be a survivor? Doubt it. Juan Castillo? Highly doubt it. Andy Reid? It’s the Cyber Monday Nuclear Winter edition of Time’s Yours. We even sneak some Sixers talk in at the end.

Follow Lee Russakoff on Twitter @LeeRussakoff.

Subscribe to the Time’s Yours podcast on iTunes. 

Posted in Eagles, PodcastComments (0)

The Degenerate: Week 11, MNF pick – Just Bet The Patriots

Well, another loser on Sunday. Not just an average loss, but a ‘blow the doors out’ loss. We had UNDER 48 in the Carolina / Detroit game. Final score? Well, I’m glad you asked, how about 45-38 Detroit. Nice.

For Amusement Purposes Only, right?

It pretty much went the exact opposite of what I wrote up:

  • The Carolina defense isn’t very good. But with Stafford limited and the rushing game missing it’s #1 guy, I think Detroit will try to play a conservative gameplan.” – 5 passing TD’s from Matt Stafford. Slightly incorrect.
  • I fully believe that the Detroit defense will shut down a pretty good Carolina offense.” – LOL, Carolina put up 35 points.

Well, let’s put yesterday’s pick behind us and pretend it never happened. And yes, the Eagles won, and I’m #ALLIN, but I need to wait another week before jumping back into the playoff hysteria.

Onto the Monday Night pick…

Monday Night Football: Chiefs at Patriots

Tonight we have Kansas City visiting New England. We’ve been burned by KC on Monday Night before. On Halloween night, Phillip Rivers blew a perfect chance for a push and fumbled in the red zone late in the 4th quarter, KC ended up winning in OT. Screw Phillip Rivers. But the good news for us tonight is that Tom Brady is not Phillip Rivers. Brady has a better arm, better weapons and a model girlfriend. He won’t blow this one for us.

Wll this be a big night for Welker?

As far as I can see it tonight is not going to be a good night for KC, this one could get ugly.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not a fan of the Patriots. Not since that 2004/05 Super Bowl when they beat the Eagles. And then there was that smugfest 2007 undefeated regular season. Add to that the cocky Boston fans and the media’s love affair with Tom Brady, well it all adds up.

But I do know one thing, love or hate the Patriots you have to admit Bill Belichek knows how to win. And I think in a position like the Patriots are in tonight, they will come out firing and win this game going away. They have the offensive weapons to put a bad teams away early.

New England has had a pretty tough schedule the past five weeks, vs. Jets, vs. Dallas, @Pittsburgh, vs. Giants, @Jets. Tonight they get a breather.

The Chiefs have really come back to earth since they ran off a 4 game winning streak after starting 0-3. They’ve lost 2 in a row, 31-3 to Miami, and 17-10 to the Tebows. They’re now going on the road after 3 straight home games.

All trends are pointing to the Chiefs in this one; Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when getting 10.5+ points. The Pats are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games when favored by 10+ points (via Covers.com).

It's on you, Palko

But those trends don’t factor in one important detail about tonight, Chiefs QB Matt Cassel is out, and Tyler Palko is making his first NFL start. The Patriots knocked off the Jets last week 37-16 and they seem like they are ready to put the division away. Tonight should be an easy win, and a game that Patriots should control from start to finish.

We are looking at a KC team going on the road after 2 home losses, KC is ranked 30th (out of 32) in overall team efficiency, and 30th overall in pass defense. Brady should have his way with that defense tonight.

The Patriots are #4 overall, and #2 in overall offense and #2 in pass offense. Yes, the Patriots are low ranked in defense (23rd) but I think Belichek will be able to draw up some schemes to confuse Palko.

I’m not going to get fancy, I’m not going to say Tyler Palko will find a way to beat the Patriots, I’m not going to say that the Chiefs defense will magically shut down Tom Brady. I’m going with the obvious play here, I’m laying the 16.5 with New England (for amusement purposes only, to be clear).

I’m thinking Brady and Welker have a big night, the Patriots defense gives Tyler Palko a rude NFL introduction and New England gets a big win in front of the home crowd. Patriots win 34-10.

Going 0-3 this week would really suck, and drop me to .500 on the season. Help me, Tom Brady. You’re my only hope.

Thanksgiving picks post coming Wednesday.

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 12-11. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

Posted in Fun Stuff, National Sports, The Degenerate's PicksComments (0)


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