Tag Archive | "Packers"

The Degenerate: Divisional Round Pick – The Packers? Rodger That.

Well, there goes one weekend of playoffs in the books, and boy was it was memorable. If you didn’t pay attention you would have thought Tim Tebow and the Broncos played the only game last weekend. Sure, that was a nice win by the Broncos as 9.5 point underdogs and I’m sure some people made nice money on the Broncos moneyline (+300), but there were a few other games on the slate. The Giants knocked off the hapless Falcons, the Saints won a shootout in the dome against the Lions, and then there were the Texans.

I salute you, JJ Watt.

Our pick last weekend was the Texans -3 at home over the Bengals. The game pretty much played out just as I wrote it up, Houston used Arian Foster and the running game along with Andre Johnson to get some scores, and they shut down the Bengals on defense for an easy 31-10 win as 3 point favorites.

You might say that the pick six by defensive tackle JJ Watt at the end of the first half was lucky, but was it really? Houston had a much better defense and it was just a matter of time before Bengals rookie QB Andy Dalton folded under pressure on the road. And fortunately for us, it happened at the perfect time. What should have been a 10-10 tie at half quickly turned into 17-10 Texans, and from there is was all over.

We’ll take the win, it moved us to 24-17 on the season, and a whopping 8-1 in our last 9 picks. It’s been a nice run, so let’s keep it up. Here we go with the Round 2 pick…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “OK, I can definitely cheer against the Giants” pick)
Green Bay Packers -7.5 over New York Giants

The old saying goes ‘perception is reality’, and whether you agree with it or not perception is going to play into our favor this weekend.

ELI!!!

Giants fans are feeling pretty good this week.

Everyone watched the Giants beat up on the Falcons last weekend and come away with a nice 24-2 win. And as a result, the public is all over the Giants (like white on rice). The line opened at Green Bay -9 and is currently at Green Bay -7.5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it dropped to Green Bay -7 by kickoff. Everyone is betting on Big Blue. And the local media is driving the badwagon. The Newark Star-Ledger is screaming “New York Giants football is back!”

Yes, the Giants won. Yes, their defense looked pretty good. But the Falcons put up one of the ugliest performances in playoff history, failing on two 4th-and-inches plays, getting only 247 yards of total offense, and after missing that second one it seemed like they just gave up. The Giants played well, but the public is acting like they beat the 1985 Bears. Relax, it was only the Falcons (who played like crap), but this week the Giants will get a wakeup call when they visit Lambeau Field.

Green Bay has the best offense in the NFL. There, I said it. Maybe you can argue the Saints are better, or the Patriots, but for my money it’s the Packers. And getting them at home, off a bye week, playing a team in it’s 4th straight ‘must win’ game is a good spot to bet on.

The Giants have been fighting for their lives ever since they lost to the Redskins (for the 2nd time this season, I might add) in Week 15. Week 16 they had a ‘win or go home’ against the Jets, they won. Week 17 it was ‘winner takes all’ vs. Dallas, the Giants won that one too. Last week it was the wildcard game, and the Giants stepped up and beat a ‘not playoff ready’ Falcons team. This week is a major step up in class.

Hopefully we see alot of Lambeau Leaps on Sunday

You’re probably already sick of hearing how this Giants team is just like the Giants team in 2007-08. You know, the one that got hot at the end of the regular season, beat the Packers in Lambeau to win the NFC and then pull the mother of all upsets over the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl. As they like to say on the internet, cool story bro. But it ain’t happening again.

The Packers are rested, they are 15-1, they are undefeated at home, 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 7-1 ATS at home this season. And how about this list of points scored by the Packers at Lambeau this season (reverse from Week 17): 45/35/46/35/45/24/49/42. Wow.

The Giants come in with the #8 offense, #3 passing, #20 rushing and to be fair, that rushing rank included weeks where Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were hurt, so they are a little better than that. So there is some firepower there, and the Packers defense isn’t great but has played well at home, and I think this will be more of an ‘outscore the Giants’ than a ‘shut down Eli’ type of game.

There is an added layer of emotion on the Packers bench this weekend. Michael Philbin, son of Packers Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin was found dead this week after drowning in a lake. He was 21. Joe Philbin will not be at the game this weekend, but I don’t expect that to impact the Packers at all. I see this as a rallying point for the Packers to win the game so somehow they can turn a tragedy into something positive for their coach. I don’t see Aaron Rogers letting up this weekend, it could be a huge game for #12.

How about the Giants hang in the game for a while but fail to stay in a track meet with the Packers at Lambeau. Green Bay wins it 37-20.

The Line: Green Bay -7.5, O/U 52
The Pick: Green Bay -7.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Green Bay: 8-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. New York: 4-12 last 16 games on grass.

Divisional Round Props

Here are some props to chew on. Last week I gave out a winner with Arian Foster getting most rushing yards. If you took Arian Foster +450 and Andre Johnson +700 like I wrote you would end up with a nice +250 profit. Props are fun to play, but for small wagers. No need to get carried away.

Highest Scoring Team
San Francisco 49ers (+1200)
Denver Broncos (+2500)
New York Giants (+1500)
Green Bay Packers (+160)
New England Patriots (+150)
Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
New Orleans Saints (+350)
Houston Texans (+3000)

First choice has to be the Patriots, but at +150 it’s not worth the money. Same with the Packers at +160. No real value in these, I don’t see any other team really rolling up points. If you think Eli can pull the upset, then maybe the Giants at +1500 looks tempting, but I’ll pass.

Most Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) (+350)
Alex Smith (49ers) (+1200)
Drew Brees (Saints) (+130)
Eli Manning (Giants) (+450)
Joe Flacco (Ravens) (+800)
Tj Yates (Texans) (+2000)
Tim Tebow (Broncos) (+2000)
Tom Brady (Patriots) (+250)

I’m going with Aaron Rodgers at +350. You read what I wrote above, I think Aaron Rodgers will have a huge game. Not only is he capable of throwing 400 yards, this could be the week he makes it a priority to rack up yards. And at +350? I’ll take it.

How about Tebow at +2000? Wow. That shows you how much faith Vegas has in his arm, he’s coming off a 316 yard game last week and now going against the worst pass defense in NFL history, no respect.

Most Rushing Yards
Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants) (+650)
Arian Foster (Texans) (+350)
Benjarvus Green-Ellis (Patriots) (+2000)
Chris Ivory (Saints) (+650)
Frank Gore (49ers) (+350)
Ray Rice (Ravens) (+200)
Ryan Grant (Packers) (+1000)
Willis Mcgahee (Broncos) (+350)

I would love to say Arian Foster again at +350. But Baltimore has the #7 rush defense, so I have to pass on him. No real value here.

Most Receiving Yards
Andre Johnson (Texans) (+800)
Anquan Boldin (Ravens) (+1500)
Demaryius Thomas (Broncos) (+600)
Hakeem Nicks (Giants) (+450)
Jermichael Finley (Packers) (+1500)
Jordy Nelson (Packers) (+450)
Marques Colston (Saints) (+300)
Michael Crabtree (49ers) (+1000)
Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) (+1000)
Vernon Davis (49ers) (+2000)
Victor Cruz (Giants) (+300)
Wes Welker (Patriots) (+600)

This is a tough one, no real favorite in this either, no stud WR waiting to get yards against a bad pass defense. Throw out Andre Johnson, Boldin and Colston as they are facing solid pass defenses. If you are looking for a play maybe Hakeem Nicks at +450. I think the Giants will be playing from behind and Eli will be tossing it all day. Between Cruz (+300) and Nicks (+450), I’ll take Nicks. But I’m passing on this one.

So for props, the only one I’ll go with is Aaron Rodgers for Most Passing Yards at +450. It’s going to be a Packers weekend. Bet the game, bet the prop, pop a few cold ones, and enjoy the game.

Oh, and I just wrote 1300 words and didn’t mention the Eagles or Andy Reid once. You’re welcome.

…and before I let you go, I LOVE this Sixers song. #ShowYaLuv

Fantasource

 

 

 

2011 Regular Season + Playoffs Record: 24-17.

You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

 

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The Degenerate: Week 12 – Thanksgiving Picks, The Turkey Day Threesome

It’s Thanksgiving week. You know, the week when you get sloppy drunk with old high school friends (“OH MY GOD WE SHOULD TOTALLY HANG OUT MORE!”), you pretend to start Christmas shopping before giving up after an hour, and… FOOTBALL!

Can we wrap this up? I have money on the Cowboys game.

Growing up, Thanksgiving day football was always a mess (except 1989 when the Eagles shut out the Cowboys 27-0, a.k.a Bounty Bowl). Detroit would play, Barry Sanders would get 175 yards rushing and they would still lose. Then we had to sit through a Dallas Cowboys game. No matter how much I hate the Cowboys, I always watched every play (mainly for gambling or fantasy football purposes, but still). And then, a few years ago, the greatest invention ever was created, the Thursday Night Thanksgiving game. Why did it take so long? Thanksgiving is perfect for a night game. The day is done, the food is gone, your family has all gone their separate ways, your stomach is bloated and you want nothing else than to sit in the recliner and watch football. Well, the NFL felt your pain and a few years ago they started the Thanksgiving night game. God Bless the NFL.

This year the Thanksgiving matchups are actually pretty decent. Miami at Dallas looks ugly on paper, but the Dolphins aren’t playing too bad lately. I could see a lot of points in this one.

Green Bay at Detroit? Nice. We finally have a Detroit Thanksgiving game that is worth a crap. This one should be a battle, the Packers are trying to keep their unbeaten season alive and the Lions are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. I’m actually looking forward to this one.

The night game is San Francisco at Baltimore. The Harbaugh Bowl, or whatever. Honestly, I’m already sick of the hype on this one. We get it, the coaches are brothers. Their mom said she is hoping for a tie. Whatever. Two great defenses are banging heads, this one should be a fight.

There are three great games on tap for Thursday, and guess what sports fans? I’m making a pick in all of them. Why not? I’m 13-11 on the season. I slugged through last weekend at 1-2. I’ve been pretty picky about my selections, and it’s only gotten me to two games over .500. Maybe shooting from the hip will get us some luck. I’ll call it “The Three Course Thanksgiving Cornucopia”.

So, here we go with the TCTC, as always this is for amusement purposes only. You can use this as your guide when making those $5 bets with your Uncle Frank. I’m going to breakdown the three games quickly since I know we all have better things to do today…

Bet #1: (a.k.a The “If Cam Newton can put up 35 points on Detroit…” pick) Green Bay -6.5 over Detroit

80 years and finally a good matchup.

I know, the cool thing to say is “yeah, I think Detroit knocks off the Packers and gives them their first loss.” But I don’t think it’s going to happen. I expect another big game from Aaron Rogers and company. Green Bay has been favored by less than a TD four times this season, covering all four games. They’re averaging 35 points per game so far this season.

The Detroit defense is good, I know that. But last week they sure didn’t look like it, giving up 35 points to Cam Newton and the Panthers. Could they have been looking ahead to this game? Probably. But I think the Packers are focused on the undefeated season, and this is a major hurdle, so they will be ready. Aaron Rogers is locked in right now, he will be tough to stop.

Detroit started the season 5-0, but have only gone 2-3 since then. Matt Stafford is hurting, but he sure didn’t look like it on Sunday, throwing five TD passes. They’re missing their #1 RB, but fill-in Kevin Smith had a good game last week. But I’m worried more about the defense. How can they give up 35 points to Carolina?

It could be a long day for the Lions. Vegas sets the Total at 56 points, so they’re looking for around a 31-24 game. I think it will be more lopsided. How about Aaron Rogers and Jordy Nelson keep rolling and the Packers win 38-21.

Bet #2 (a.k.a The “At least you aren’t picking the Cowboys” pick) Dallas / Miami OVER 44

Who knew Miami fans were so gangsta?

Miami has shut down the last three teams they have played. KC scored three, Washington scored nine and Buffalo scored eight. But take look at those teams, none of them have been playing well lately.

Yeah, Washington almost beat Dallas last week, but that was pretty much the Redskins’ Super Bowl. They gave Dallas all they could and still couldn’t get it done.

Dallas has put up 20+ in four of the last five games, they seem like a different team with DeMarco Murray in the backfield. Miami is averaging 29 points the last 3 games, ever since Reggie Bush remembered he was a Heisman winner. Both offenses are moving the ball well.

And playing on a short week, I’d give the advantage to the offense.

Add to that Miami has not gone OVER at all this season, eight UNDERs, one Push. All streaks end at some point, and I think this one ends this week. DeMarco Murray and the Dallas WR/TE’s (Bryant, Robinson, Witten) should have big days. As much as I would like to see the Cowboys lose to help the Eagles, I don’t see it happening. Romo and Murray get Dallas a 34-20 win.

Bet #3 (a.k.a The “Home cooking always tastes better” pick) Baltimore -3 over San Francisco

I know, I know, I said I’d never put my money on Joe Flaccid. But in this one, I’m putting my money on Joe Flaccid (but never again, I swear 😉 ).

Flacco is not a great QB, I know that. But I’m looking for less Flacco and more Ray Rice in this one.

Could be a big night for Ray Rice

Both defenses are solid (San Fran is #3, Baltimore is #1), and both offenses are average (San Fran is #19, Baltimore #21). Seems like a recipe for a low scoring game, Vegas set the total at 38 points.

This one comes down to two things for me: 1) San Francisco is coming off of a battle against the Giants on Sunday that pretty much came down to the last play, and 2) San Francisco is travelling across the country on a short week to play in a game that has been pretty hyped up.

San Francisco is a young team, I think the hype around this game could be distracting for them. Baltimore is at home, and they are a veteran team. I don’t think Ray Lewis, Ray Rice and Ed Reed will let the team lose focus on this one. Baltimore is battling the Steelers for the lead in the AFC Central, while the 49ers have already wrapped up the NFC West. This isn’t a great spot for the 49ers.

The 49ers are 9-0-1 vs. the spread, that is unconscious. It can’t keep up and I think this is the week they finally lose a game vs. the pointspread.

So, we have a veteran team at home, on a short week against a young, hot team off a tough win travelling cross country. I think Baltimore settles in and knocks off the 49ers, and it might not even be that close. I’m saying Ravens 27-10.

Let’s hope we sweep the board on Thursday and celebrate Turkey day with some winners.

*No pick from me on the Birds game. Patriots are laying 4 right now, no Over/Under posted yet. I’ll just sit back and hope for the best. I’m still ALL IN, but if they can manage to pull this one out? Oh boy, the hype machine starts up all over again.

I’ll be back next week with a full slate of posts. But for now, enjoy the holiday weekend!

 

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 13-11. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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The Degenerate: Week 10, MNF pick: It’s Over, Johnny

So, can we stick a fork in them? Are they done? 3-6, 3 games back with 7 to play? Yeah, I think they’re done. Time to start studying the college draft prospects. As it stands today we’re right in the mix for a top 5 pick, so that’s pretty cool. Can’t wait to see what Andy has up his sleeve this year. How about a punter? That LSU kid is pretty solid. What about drafting a QB? Oh yeah, I forgot, we’re stuck with the 100 million dollar man. But at least it’s not Kevin Kolb, amirite. I personally think they would do well getting Justin Blackmon from Oklahoma State. Another WR to throw into the mix. Maclin, Jackson and Blackmon. I like that. But he’s junior, hopefully he comes out.

So, can I just challenge the whole season and start over again?

Anyway, back to reality. John Skelton came into the Linc with the 2-6 Cardinals, he led a 4th quarter comeback and the Cardinals came away with a 21-17 win as 14 point underdogs.

The good: Asante got a pick six. The bad: Vick threw 4 INTs (lucky for him 2 were negated by penalties). The Ugly: DeSean blew off a team meeting and got benched.

I guess Andy has to go. This team has no fire, no passion and they have no heart late in games. They’ve only won 3 games, at Rams, at Redskins and vs. Cowboys. So, we have wins against 2 of the worst teams in the league and a nice blowout of Dallas. But when push comes to shove, they can’t get it done. They’ve blown late leads to the Falcons, Giants, 49ers, Bears and now the Cardinals.

The drumbeats are sounding, the ‘Fire Andy’ movement will be in full force this week. I’m sure that idiot with the signs will be outside of NovaCare. Hopefully he bought himself a dictionary.

As much as I don’t want to, I’m writing off the rest of this season. I have to. I can’t hold out any more hope for a team that has proved multiple times that it can’t close games. Watching the 49ers/Giants game made me long for the days of good football. Both teams fought to the end, to the last seconds, the game went down to the final play in the red zone. You didn’t want to count Eli out (yeah, I just wrote that), even after two bad interceptions he answered with a threaded needle for a TD. And the 49ers were punching back everytime the Giants landed a left hook. I want that kind of fight. I want a team that will die on the field to get a win, these guys aren’t doing it.

Maybe a new coach, but who knows what the answer is. Bill Cowher? John Gruden? Rob Ryan? Some unknown assistant with a nice binder full of laminated plays and schemes (ala Andy Reid back in 1999)? The triumverate (Lurie, Reid and Banner) needs to step back, evaluate the coaches and management, and make a move. Maybe move Andy upstairs, let someone else call the plays? I don’t know. Something has to be done.  But knowing the track record of the Big 3, I’m not holding my breath.

Onto the Monday Night pick…

Monday Night Football: Vikings at Packers

Green Bay hosting Minnesota. The Packers are a 13 point favorite, total is 50 points.

There's gonna be alot of Lambeau Leaping tonight

I’m not expecting the Vikings to be in this game at all. Blowout city. But laying 13 points opens us up to a back door cover. I’m looking at this game as a scorefest. And I’m going with OVER 50 points.

I’m bucking a big trend here. This season teams coming off bye weeks have hit UNDER in 20 of 27 games including 2 UNDERs from the 3 teams off bye weeks in this past Sunday’s games. So I’m working in the minority here.

Green Bay can score, we all know that. They’re averaging 34 points a game. They’re also 8-0 and looking to keep the undefeated season alive. A home game on Monday Night is something teams circle on the schedule when it first comes out. So expect a top effort from Green Bay. The Packers are playing a division rival, but one that’s not very good. Minnesota is 2-6 and going nowhere fast. They have Adrian Petersen, the best RB in the league (sorry Shady, your #2). But the Vikes have improved the past few games. Christian Ponder took over for Donovan McNabb full-time in Week 7 and since then they have put up 24 and 27 points and they’re coming into this game off of a bye week. So they’ll be rested. Ponder is good. The rookie QB crop this season is pretty solid (Andy Dalton and Cam Newton are probably battling for Rookie of the Year) and Ponder is one of the better ones.

AP is ready for a big game.

Ponder already matched up against the Packers in his 1st pro start in Week 7, and put up a decent game but lost 33-27 at home. So he’s already seen the Green Bay defense, and he did ok with them. Petersen is going to get his touches, he had 175 yards rushing and a TD in Week 7 vs. Green Bay. I expect the Vikings to try to slow down the game by staying on the ground and keeping the Packers off the field, but it’s probably not going to work for too long.

Green Bay has put up points this season, their lowest scoring game was when they scored only 24 points vs the Rams 2 weeks ago. Last week they went to San Diego and won 45-38. I expect Rogers to put the ball up early and often, try to get a big lead and take AP out of the game, forcing Ponder to throw. At least that’s what I would do if I was playing this matchup in Madden.

You may not be aware of this but the Green Bay defense is not very good. They’re 8-0 despite the fact that they have the 22nd ranked defense. That’s says alot about their offense’s ability to outscore teams.

And while Minnesota’s defense is a far cry from the Purple People Eaters of the 70’s, at #20 they’re ranked higher than the Packers D. But they do have the 21st ranked pass defense, so I expect Aaron Rogers to have 3 TD’s, maybe 4. Another great fantasy game for Rogers.

I think the Vikings will figure out a way to score in the 20’s, and the Packers will score early and often and get into the 30’s, and that’ll put the game OVER 50.

How about Rogers throws 4 TD’s, the Packers move to 9-0 and cheeseheads rejoice with a 37-24 Packers win in a division beatdown of the Vikings.

The Line: Green Bay -13, O/U 50
The Pick: Green Bay / Minnesota OVER 50
Games Trends (via Covers.com): Vikings: 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC North. Packers: OVER is 7-2 in last 9 games as a home favorite.

R.I.P Joe Frazier.

R.I.P 2011 Eagles.

Season Record: 11-9. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.
Fantasource

 

 

 

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

  • Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
  • Email me fantasource@gmail.com
  • Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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