Tag Archive | "New York"

The Degenerate: Divisional Round Pick – The Packers? Rodger That.

Well, there goes one weekend of playoffs in the books, and boy was it was memorable. If you didn’t pay attention you would have thought Tim Tebow and the Broncos played the only game last weekend. Sure, that was a nice win by the Broncos as 9.5 point underdogs and I’m sure some people made nice money on the Broncos moneyline (+300), but there were a few other games on the slate. The Giants knocked off the hapless Falcons, the Saints won a shootout in the dome against the Lions, and then there were the Texans.

I salute you, JJ Watt.

Our pick last weekend was the Texans -3 at home over the Bengals. The game pretty much played out just as I wrote it up, Houston used Arian Foster and the running game along with Andre Johnson to get some scores, and they shut down the Bengals on defense for an easy 31-10 win as 3 point favorites.

You might say that the pick six by defensive tackle JJ Watt at the end of the first half was lucky, but was it really? Houston had a much better defense and it was just a matter of time before Bengals rookie QB Andy Dalton folded under pressure on the road. And fortunately for us, it happened at the perfect time. What should have been a 10-10 tie at half quickly turned into 17-10 Texans, and from there is was all over.

We’ll take the win, it moved us to 24-17 on the season, and a whopping 8-1 in our last 9 picks. It’s been a nice run, so let’s keep it up. Here we go with the Round 2 pick…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “OK, I can definitely cheer against the Giants” pick)
Green Bay Packers -7.5 over New York Giants

The old saying goes ‘perception is reality’, and whether you agree with it or not perception is going to play into our favor this weekend.

ELI!!!

Giants fans are feeling pretty good this week.

Everyone watched the Giants beat up on the Falcons last weekend and come away with a nice 24-2 win. And as a result, the public is all over the Giants (like white on rice). The line opened at Green Bay -9 and is currently at Green Bay -7.5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it dropped to Green Bay -7 by kickoff. Everyone is betting on Big Blue. And the local media is driving the badwagon. The Newark Star-Ledger is screaming “New York Giants football is back!”

Yes, the Giants won. Yes, their defense looked pretty good. But the Falcons put up one of the ugliest performances in playoff history, failing on two 4th-and-inches plays, getting only 247 yards of total offense, and after missing that second one it seemed like they just gave up. The Giants played well, but the public is acting like they beat the 1985 Bears. Relax, it was only the Falcons (who played like crap), but this week the Giants will get a wakeup call when they visit Lambeau Field.

Green Bay has the best offense in the NFL. There, I said it. Maybe you can argue the Saints are better, or the Patriots, but for my money it’s the Packers. And getting them at home, off a bye week, playing a team in it’s 4th straight ‘must win’ game is a good spot to bet on.

The Giants have been fighting for their lives ever since they lost to the Redskins (for the 2nd time this season, I might add) in Week 15. Week 16 they had a ‘win or go home’ against the Jets, they won. Week 17 it was ‘winner takes all’ vs. Dallas, the Giants won that one too. Last week it was the wildcard game, and the Giants stepped up and beat a ‘not playoff ready’ Falcons team. This week is a major step up in class.

Hopefully we see alot of Lambeau Leaps on Sunday

You’re probably already sick of hearing how this Giants team is just like the Giants team in 2007-08. You know, the one that got hot at the end of the regular season, beat the Packers in Lambeau to win the NFC and then pull the mother of all upsets over the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl. As they like to say on the internet, cool story bro. But it ain’t happening again.

The Packers are rested, they are 15-1, they are undefeated at home, 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 7-1 ATS at home this season. And how about this list of points scored by the Packers at Lambeau this season (reverse from Week 17): 45/35/46/35/45/24/49/42. Wow.

The Giants come in with the #8 offense, #3 passing, #20 rushing and to be fair, that rushing rank included weeks where Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were hurt, so they are a little better than that. So there is some firepower there, and the Packers defense isn’t great but has played well at home, and I think this will be more of an ‘outscore the Giants’ than a ‘shut down Eli’ type of game.

There is an added layer of emotion on the Packers bench this weekend. Michael Philbin, son of Packers Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin was found dead this week after drowning in a lake. He was 21. Joe Philbin will not be at the game this weekend, but I don’t expect that to impact the Packers at all. I see this as a rallying point for the Packers to win the game so somehow they can turn a tragedy into something positive for their coach. I don’t see Aaron Rogers letting up this weekend, it could be a huge game for #12.

How about the Giants hang in the game for a while but fail to stay in a track meet with the Packers at Lambeau. Green Bay wins it 37-20.

The Line: Green Bay -7.5, O/U 52
The Pick: Green Bay -7.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Green Bay: 8-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. New York: 4-12 last 16 games on grass.

Divisional Round Props

Here are some props to chew on. Last week I gave out a winner with Arian Foster getting most rushing yards. If you took Arian Foster +450 and Andre Johnson +700 like I wrote you would end up with a nice +250 profit. Props are fun to play, but for small wagers. No need to get carried away.

Highest Scoring Team
San Francisco 49ers (+1200)
Denver Broncos (+2500)
New York Giants (+1500)
Green Bay Packers (+160)
New England Patriots (+150)
Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
New Orleans Saints (+350)
Houston Texans (+3000)

First choice has to be the Patriots, but at +150 it’s not worth the money. Same with the Packers at +160. No real value in these, I don’t see any other team really rolling up points. If you think Eli can pull the upset, then maybe the Giants at +1500 looks tempting, but I’ll pass.

Most Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) (+350)
Alex Smith (49ers) (+1200)
Drew Brees (Saints) (+130)
Eli Manning (Giants) (+450)
Joe Flacco (Ravens) (+800)
Tj Yates (Texans) (+2000)
Tim Tebow (Broncos) (+2000)
Tom Brady (Patriots) (+250)

I’m going with Aaron Rodgers at +350. You read what I wrote above, I think Aaron Rodgers will have a huge game. Not only is he capable of throwing 400 yards, this could be the week he makes it a priority to rack up yards. And at +350? I’ll take it.

How about Tebow at +2000? Wow. That shows you how much faith Vegas has in his arm, he’s coming off a 316 yard game last week and now going against the worst pass defense in NFL history, no respect.

Most Rushing Yards
Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants) (+650)
Arian Foster (Texans) (+350)
Benjarvus Green-Ellis (Patriots) (+2000)
Chris Ivory (Saints) (+650)
Frank Gore (49ers) (+350)
Ray Rice (Ravens) (+200)
Ryan Grant (Packers) (+1000)
Willis Mcgahee (Broncos) (+350)

I would love to say Arian Foster again at +350. But Baltimore has the #7 rush defense, so I have to pass on him. No real value here.

Most Receiving Yards
Andre Johnson (Texans) (+800)
Anquan Boldin (Ravens) (+1500)
Demaryius Thomas (Broncos) (+600)
Hakeem Nicks (Giants) (+450)
Jermichael Finley (Packers) (+1500)
Jordy Nelson (Packers) (+450)
Marques Colston (Saints) (+300)
Michael Crabtree (49ers) (+1000)
Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) (+1000)
Vernon Davis (49ers) (+2000)
Victor Cruz (Giants) (+300)
Wes Welker (Patriots) (+600)

This is a tough one, no real favorite in this either, no stud WR waiting to get yards against a bad pass defense. Throw out Andre Johnson, Boldin and Colston as they are facing solid pass defenses. If you are looking for a play maybe Hakeem Nicks at +450. I think the Giants will be playing from behind and Eli will be tossing it all day. Between Cruz (+300) and Nicks (+450), I’ll take Nicks. But I’m passing on this one.

So for props, the only one I’ll go with is Aaron Rodgers for Most Passing Yards at +450. It’s going to be a Packers weekend. Bet the game, bet the prop, pop a few cold ones, and enjoy the game.

Oh, and I just wrote 1300 words and didn’t mention the Eagles or Andy Reid once. You’re welcome.

…and before I let you go, I LOVE this Sixers song. #ShowYaLuv

Fantasource

 

 

 

2011 Regular Season + Playoffs Record: 24-17.

You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

 

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The Degenerate: Week 11 Preview and Thursday Night Pick, TEBOW!

Remember back to the fun of three weeks ago, after the Eagles crushed the Cowboys and we were ready to take control of the NFC East. We said that this weekends Giants game was going to be the game of the year, and we would win and get back into first place? I think I’ll quote from my own post that week… “That [Cowboys] game was huge. It got us closer to the Giants, it vaulted us from the ‘and other teams…’ list onto the short list for the NFC title race

Remember the Cowboys game? Wasn't that fun?

Yeah, well forget all that. Now we are in sink or swim mode.

A record of 3-6 with seven just games left. Our playoff chances are getting slimmer and slimmer by the week. That stuff happens when you lose back to back weeks as nine & 14 point favorites. Right now, we are on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. I see a statistic of a 3.6% chance of us making the postseason. And this week it doesn’t get any easier, we go up to the Meadowlands and take on the Giants.

Not only have the Eagles had a rough run of it in the real world, they haven’t done too much to help gamblers who have backed them this season. The Dream Team has been favored every game this season up to this week, and they’re only 3-6 ATS (against the spread). When they actually win a game, they cover the spread, too bad they haven’t won many games this season.

The kicker is that they’ve been favorites of seven points or higher four times (v. Giants, v. 49ers, v. Bears and v. Cardinals), all home games, and they’ve lost them all straight up. I’m trying to dig up how much you would have lost if you bet $100 on the Eagles to win every game on the moneyline (no spread), but an early guess is well over $1000. I’ll try to figure that out and report back in tomorrow’s column.

The good news for us here at The Degenerate is that we got back on the winning side last week, going 2-1 with the picks. Winners on San Francisco and the Packers OVER 50 on Monday Night, loser on the Chargers. I made my last bet on Phillip Rivers last Thursday night, the Chargers are dead to me. No way am I putting any money on them again this season.

This week the NFL throws us a pretty interesting Thursday night matchup, Jets vs. Tebow, I mean the Broncos. I’ll have a pick in that game and a first look at the Eagles / Giants matchup.

Onto the Week 10 review..

Week 10 Revisited

After losing 4 of 5, going 2-1 makes me feel like Einstein.

After a few tough weeks I am happy to say we got back on the winning track last weekend. I can’t blame you if you didn’t follow any of the plays last week since we sucked for 2 weeks in a row, but 2-1 last weekend isn’t bad. it moved us to 12-9 on the season (all of the 2011 picks are documented here). Not great, but still not bad. It’s 57%, still enough to make us a little profit for the season, but that’s irrelevant since this is for amusement purposes only, right?

Chargers -7 over Raiders – this game sucked. If someone informed me that Carson Palmer had an HGH injection I probably would have laid off the game. Seriously, Carson Palmer threw for 300 yards and two TD’s. Michael Bush had 157 yards rushing?

The Chargers were never really in this game, besides a 3-0 lead in the 1st quarter, they never led in the game. Bad showing for the Chargers, and a bad loss for us.  Raiders win 14-17. Loss

49ers -4 over  NY Giants – this one was a little nerve wracking. This was a slugfest, but a little more high scoring than I expected, even though the scoring started slowly. It was all field goals until the 3rd quarter. 12-6 49ers and Eli throws a TD to give the Giants the lead 13-12. 49ers came back with 2 TD’s to take a 27-13 lead.

Eli had one last surge in him, getting the Giants to within seven at 27-20, and driving with a minute left. 49ers needed a red zone stand to get out with the win and the cover. 27-20. Winner

Packers/Vikings OVER 50 – this one was a little too close for comfort. It started off pretty well, the Packers had 14 points before I even sat down on my couch, and then the scoring stopped.

We went into half with a 17-0 Packers lead. I was nervous. But with Aaron Rogers at QB, I knew we still had a chance. And he didn’t disappoint. 21 points in the 3rd quarter. Then it was stuck on 45 points, and it’s garbage time. Here comes Matt Flynn. 10 minutes left, he drives the Packers down for a meaningless TD to put us OVER 50. Packers win, 45-7 final. Winner.

Week 11 Hometown Preview: Eagles @ New York Giants

Opening Line: Giants -3, O/U 47
Current Line: Giants -5, O/U 46.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Underdog is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings. Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

The Giants game is always a bloodbath.

This game is tough to handicap. Mainly because we aren’t sure if Vick is playing. Which is why the line jumped so much. With Vick out the options are Mike Kafka (probably ugh) or Vince Young (definitely ugh). The Giants are for real, FootballOutsiders.com has them as the #8 overall team (#6 offense, #11 defense).

They’re also right in the middle of a tough stretch of games that everyone thought would kill their season. Two weeks ago they knocked off the Patriots on the road as 9 point underdogs. Last week they fought hard in San Francisco as four point dogs and almost pulled off another improbable win. This week they come home and look to keep their lead in the NFC East. Next week it’s @ New Orleans, then home vs. Green Bay and then @ Dallas. Ouch.

New York has had a pretty easy home schedule so far this season, St Louis, Seattle, Miami and Buffalo. But they only have one cover at home, a 12 point Week 2 win vs. Rams as seven point favorites. The Buffalo and Miami games were tight wins (but not covers) and the Giants got knocked off by Seattle as 10 point favorites a few weeks ago.

The Eagles? Well we know their story all too well.

This is a Sunday Night matchup, and the NY crowd will be fired up, they know a win here would pretty much put the final stake in the Eagles season. So expect a raucous crowd (I know, what else would you expect?).

But looking at the trends this seems like a good spot for the Eagles. Road team and Underdogs in this series cover at a pretty good clip, and the Eagles are both.

And last year, we went up there as three point underdogs and then this happened (w/Merrill Reese audio)…

We’ll make a pick in this game on Friday. I’m leaning Eagles and UNDER (seriously).

Thursday Night Football

TNF Bet #1: (a.k.a the “a bet against Tebow is a bet against God” pick): Teaser – Jets pick ’em and UNDER 46

Tebow-mania has hit new heights of absurdity

If you only got your news from ESPN here’s what you know about this game: Tebow Tebow Tebow. Tebow, Tebow Tebow Tebow. (Tebow) Tebow Tebow , Tebow? Jets. Tebow.

Yeah, Tim Tebow makes his national TV debut. NFL Network execs are creaming themselves at the chance to show Tebow vs. the Jets. Big Name player vs. Big Market team. Must See TV. I know I’ll be watching.

I like Tebow, he is a very interesting guy. He has strong beliefs, and he sticks to them. As we’ve seen all too well lately that some people preach one thing and do another (*cough* PSU *cough*), but Tim Tebow seems like the real deal. But that still doesn’t mean I’m going to bet on him.

This line opened at Jets -4, O/U 42.5, and is now Jets -6, O/U 40. All the money is on the Jets. Heck, I think even Mr. and Mrs. Tebow have money on the Jets. Sportsbookspy.com has 84% of the bets on this game going to the Jets. Wow, that’s huge public backing on the Jets minus the points.

But there’s good reason. The Broncos are still an unknown commodity. Tebow has only started 4 games. Yeah, he’s 3-1, but wins over Miami, Oakland and KC aren’t jumping off the page. Those teams have bad defenses (Miami: #21, Oakland #26, KC: #22). The week that they played a team with a decent defense (Detroit: #4) they got shut down, 45-10.

The Jets have a great defense, #2 overall (#2 passing, #5 rushing) and I think they match up well with the Tebow offense (if that’s possible). The Denver passing game is non-existent. Just stick Revis on Eric Decker and that’s that. This will force Tebow to keep it on the ground with whatever types of wildcat plays he plans to run. Add to that both Denver RB’s are hurting. Knowshow Moreno is out (ACL), and Willis McGahee is questionable tonight. So Tebow is out there all alone, his top WR will be all stranded on Revis Island, and his only functioning RB will be playing hurt, if he plays at all. Could be a long night for Tebow.

Whatever you do, just don't blow the game for us, ok?

That brings us to the Jets. They are pretty average on offense, #15th overall. (#13th passing, #14th rushing). LaDanian Tomlinson is out. So it’s going to be all Shonn Greene in the backfield. So I think tonight it comes down to Mark Sanchez and a short passing game. Can he get it done vs the #24 ranked pass defense? I think he can, but with a ball control mentality. I saw an article in the NY Daily News that said Sanchez is basically a ‘game manager’ now. Translation: play conservative and don’t screw anything up.

With the Jets D shutting down Tebow and Sanchez playing ‘game manager’, I think this will be a low scoring game, and the total of 40 shows me that Vegas thinks so to.

Both teams are desperate for a win, The Broncos are 4-5 but only a game out of 1st place in the AFC West, and the Jets are 5-4 and a game out of the AFC EAst. The Jets are also in the mix for a wildcard spot. Denver is playing well, three wins in four games, but they are 1-3 at home. The Jets are 1-3 on the road, so something has to give.

And logistically, the Jets are in a tough position. They played the Sunday Night game vs. New England, now they fly West and play again 4 days later in Mile High (or whatever it’s called), and in this time they have to prepare for the crazy Tebow offense? I still they can do it (In Rex We Trust), but I’m not willing to lay 6 points on the road. I also like the UNDER, so I think I’ll throw out a ‘Thursday Night Teaser of the Week’, how about Jets and UNDER. With the 6 points it will take the lines to Jets pick ‘em, Under 46.

Let’s say Rex and the Jets shut down Tebow, Sanchez plays a conservative game and the Jets come away with a 24-13 win.

C’mon Rex, get it done.

The Line: Jets -6, O/U 40
The Pick: Teaser: Jets pick ‘em + Under 46

Back on Friday with the Sunday picks

 

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 12-9. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

 

Posted in Eagles, Fun Stuff, National Sports, The Degenerate's PicksComments (0)


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