Tag Archive | "Monday Night Football"

The Degenerate: Week 7 MNF Pick: Bodymore, Murdaland

We had another winner this weekend with the Steelers -4 over Arizona. I’m pretty happy that we’ve been running on all cylinders lately, 7-2 in our last nine picks here at SpikeEskin.com. Hope everyone made some money along the way (but don’t forget, it’s for amusement purposes only).

So here we are again, another Monday Night is upon us. I wanted to write a 5000 word post comparing the Ravens players to characters from The Wire, but then I remembered that I’m not Bill Simmons, plus someone already did that shtick with the 2011 Phillies players last week (it’s good, go read it). So I guess I’ll just handicap the game without any fluff.

I'm hot, now Roger Goodell is trying to shut me down

We hit the Steelers game yesterday and also have run off three straight Monday Night winners, and just when I’m right in the middle of a hot streak the NFL sends in The Cooler to shut me down. Baltimore at Jacksonville? Seriously? This game has me very inspired to watch something else.

Don’t get me wrong, I do love the Ravens defense, it’s the best in the league (maybe the best ever?). That, plus the fact that the Jaguars are horrible on offense means it could get ugly for Blaine “Yo Gabbert” Gabbert and friends tonight in J-ville (is that what they call it?). By the way, here’s your ‘No shit, Sherlock’ headline of the week from the Boston Globe: “Ravens’ defense has been tough on young quarterbacks”. Oh, you don’t say. You’re telling me that rookie Blaine Gabbert might be in for a rough night against Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and company? Thanks for the newsflash.

The Jaguars are having a rough season, they are 1-5 this year and Gabbert is 0-4 since taking over as the starter. Yes, they played the Steelers tight last week in Pittsburgh, but they could only muster 209 yards of total offense. Blaine Gabbert got a whopping 109 yards passing. And now he has to face the #1 Ravens defense? Does anyone really expect the Jaguars to get any points? Maybe MJD can break one at some point, but I’m not expecting much.

But the Ravens offense isn’t that exciting either. Joe Flacco? He’s decent but I wouldn’t put the ball in his hands and ask him to win a game for me. It’s really Ray Rice or nothing as far as I’m concerned, and tonight that just might be all the Ravens need.

Let’s quickly run through the stats for this Ravens Defense:

  • 1st – Points per game (14.2 points)
  • 1st – Total yards allowed per game (270 yards)
  • 3rd – Rush yards allowed per game (76 yards)
  • 7th – Passing yards allowed per game (209 yards)

Yo Blaine, We're Coming for You!

If you’ve read this column all season you know I have a hard-on for the DVOA stats from FootballOutsiders.com. And according to the FO Defensive Efficiency rankings the Ravens D is the best, by far. They’re #1 at -29.5 (the lower, the better). #2 is the Jets at -15.3. So they are almost double the Jets’ efficiency. That 14 point gap from #1 to #2 is the same as the gap from #2 to #12. In short, the Ravens are a machine on defense.

Take the Ravens defense stats and also include that the Jags are only scoring 12 points per game (only St Louis is worse) and they have the lowest passing yards per game (137 yards) so you have to wonder if they’ll even score at all.

But the Jaguars defense is decent in their own right. Near the top 10 in points per game allowed, yards per game allowed and pass yards per game allowed and they’re 12th in defensive efficiency at Football Outsiders. But their rush defense is not great (115 yards per game, #20) which is why I think we’ll be seeing alot of Ray Rice (probably not a surprise).

And as for Offensive efficiency, the Ravens are 20th, the Jaguars are 32nd (last). So I think you know where this is going.

I like the UNDER 39 points. I truly don’t know how the Jaguars will score points. I really don’t. I guess MJD will see alot of touches? I wouldn’t think Blaine Gabbert will be able to have much time to set up and make decent throws. So since it looks to me like it will be Ray Rice all night for Baltimore and MJD all night for Jacksonville, I’m thinking Ground and Pound and a low scoring game.

Unders have hit in five of six games for Jacksonville, but the Ravens games have gone over in four of five weeks. I think both defenses will play well enough to keep this under the number. I can realistically see the Ravens pitching a shutout, and I don’t think they can put up over 27 points on the Jaguars tonight.

MJD is the key for the Jags tonight.

I really hate betting Unders, I think everyone does, it’s like betting the Don’t Pass line in Craps. You’re hoping for nothing fun to happen. I’d much rather bet the Over, sit back, and watch a 42-38 shooting match. But I don’t see that happening on Monday Night. So I’ll have to suck it up and cheer for a defensive chess match.

I’m thinking that the Ravens D shuts ‘em down and both offenses keep the ball on the ground. We’ll see Baltimore get out of Jacksonville with a hard fought win.

But let’s get back to the Ravens as characters from The Wire… don’t fall for the easy choice and make Ray Lewis to be Omar. No way. Ed Reed is Omar. Ray Lewis is Slim Charles. The cool, calm assassin. Always does his job, loyal to the end and never complains. And I’ve never seen Ray Rice in person, but I can’t help but think he would look and act just like Cutty. And Flacco is Prez, no doubt. Ok, I’m done.

How about we say Ray Lewis puts Blaine Gabbert in a vacant (trademark Jason Whitlock) and Baltimore gets out of there with a W. Ravens 24 Jaguars 10?  Sounds good to me.

I would have loved to laid the 10 points with the Ravens, but the Jags defense plus homefield plus Monday Night makes me nervous that it could be a tight game, or at least one susceptible to a backdoor cover.

The Line: Ravens -10, O/U 39
The Pick: UNDER 39

I know it was an Eagles bye week but don’t fret, Dallas comes to the Linc next Sunday Night, I can’t wait. Early line has the Birds as three point favorites. Chew on that for a few days and we’ll break it all down on Thursday and Friday.

Let’s keep this train moving with another win.





Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

  • Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
  • Email me fantasource@gmail.com
  • Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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The Degenerate: Week 6 MNF Pick, Bright Lights, Big City…

So, the Eagles finally got the monkey off of their backs. But when the opposing quarterback is named Rex Grossman, it’s not that hard to do. But tonight, a team from the other end of the NJ Turnpike is also trying to right the ship and get a much-needed win. Tonight, Matt Moore and the Miami Dolphins come to the Meadowlands (or whatever it’s called now) and take on the Mark Sanchez and the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.

I loved Buddy, so I love Rex.

The Jets and Eagles were in pretty similar situations coming into this week. Both teams came into the season with high expectations. The Jets may not have had the ‘dream team’ label, but with Rex Ryan’s big mouth, Mark Sanchez’s GQ photo shoots and their recent success (including a big underdog win over New England in the playoffs) alot of teams were gunning for them and the New York media was ready to pounce at the first indication of failure.

And like the Eagles, the Jets are come into Week 6 sorely needing a win to stay in the division race. New England (5-1) and Buffalo (4-2) are at the top of the AFC East, and the Jets have a chance to keep pace with them if they can get a win tonight. 9-7 might get a wildcard berth in the AFC, and if the Jets plan to make it to the postseason they better get a win tonight.

On the other end of the spectrum you have the 0-4 Miami Dolphins. They’re not very good. They’re at the bottom of the league in points per game (17.4), defensive pass yards per game (307), and they’re the lowest rated team in defensive efficiency. And they’re one of the favorites in the ‘Suck For Luck’ sweepstakes, by finishing with the worst record and getting to draft stud QB Andrew Luck from Stanford. Oh, and the following people are all part-owners of the Dolphins: J-Lo, Mark Anthony, Fergie and Serena Williams. And according to Sportsbook.com, Tony Sparano is the odds-on favorite to be the first NFL coach fired this season. So they have that going for them.

The Jets are 2-3 but have dropped 3 straight, losing to Oakland, Baltimore and New England. So they’ve lost to 3 good teams on the road. Now they

If you win this game, and we don't get Andrew Luck, I'm going to kill you.

come home and they get to take out their frustrations on the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. The stats all point to the Jets getting it done tonight. I mean, with Chad Henne out is Matt Moore going to beat Rex Ryan’s #2 ranked pass defense? RB Daniel Thomas is hurting (back from a hamstring injury after missing 2 games), will he be 100% and will he be able to carry the load? The Jets seem like they are ready to give up on ‘Ground and Pound’ and start throwing the ball more. That will be a good place to start since Miami has a pretty weak pass defense. Who am I kidding, their run defense stinks too.

This line opened at Jets -9, but was bet down and now the line is Jets -6′. Sportsbookspy.com shows the Jets getting 71% of the action in this game but the number moved the opposite way. So it looks like some heavy hitters are putting their money on the Dolphins to make the line move like that. Regardless, I still like the Jets and if you can get them laying less than 7 points, even better (as always, for amusement purposes only).

The Jets know they have to win, and I think they get it done easily tonight. They’re a desperate team with a good defense playing at home going up against a QB making his first start of the season with a banged up starting RB.

This one could get ugly if Rex unleashes the hounds on Matt Moore. I’ll say Jets 30 Dolphins 10.

The Line: Jets -6.5 / 42.5
The Pick: Jets -6.5

Let’s win this one and go eat a god damn snack!

(See, I went through this whole post without making a Rex Ryan foot fetish joke. That’s because we run a respectable business here. 8=====D)

Good luck and let’s keep the winning streak alive.


Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

  • Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
  • Email me fantasource@gmail.com
  • Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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The Degenerate: Week 5 MNF, Detroit Lock City?

Detroit Rock City? Might be more like Detroit Lock City tonight (LOL). Chicago is going to find out what it’s like to be thrown into the Lions’ dens. The Lions have a strong defense, a quick strike offense and they look like they could cause real problems for Jay Cutler and friends on Monday Night Football.

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The Degenerate: Week 4: The Monday Night Football Pick

Well, Sunday sure did suck. But cheer up buttercup, it’s Monday. You know, ‘Monday Night Football’! A little football, some Jaws and Gruden, yeah, that’ll be the perfect remedy for the depressed Philadelphia sports fan.

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The Degenerate, Week 3: The Monday Night Football Pick

So, the Redskins are going on the road for the first time this season, and it’s the home opener for the Cowboys. Sexy Rexy Does Dallas. Good luck with that, Skins fans.

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