Tag Archive | "Michael Vick"

The Degenerate: Week 15, The Friday Pick (on Saturday)… He’s Baaaack!

Ok, enough of this losing crap. Can’t the gambling gods throw me a bone and give me some holiday cheer? On Thursday night we had the Steelers -14.

Ben, I know how you feel.

And just our luck, Big Ben goes down with a leg injury in the 2nd quarter. We’re doomed! But wait, here comes Ben after halftime taking warmups. He’s gonna play!

Steelers were up 7-3 with 11 minutes left in the game, they moved the ball down to the tw0 yard line, but they got stuffed by the Browns four straight downs. Yes, the 30th ranked Browns rushing defense stuffed the Steelers 8th ranked rushing game. That’s when I knew we weren’t going to cover.

Steelers managed to get a 14-3 win, but not the cover. So that dropped us to 0-5 in our last five picks. Not good. And now we’re at 16-16 on the season. But let’s keep on taking shots and see what happens.

I looked over the card this week and I really only found one game I liked, Eagles at Dolphins. Yeah, and it’s not even just a hometown pick, I actually like a side in this one.

I also liked the Saints -3.5 at Tennessee, but not enough to put it out as a pick. And Carolina at home getting 3 over Atlanta looks like a possible money line play. But let’s focus in on the one play this week.

Bet #1: (a.k.a. “The Mike Vick Experience, Part 2” pick) Eagles +3 over Miami Dolphins.

I know, I know the Eagles suck. They’re 4-8, they’ve lost four of their last five games straight up. They looked terrible against the Seahawks. I know, I’ve watched every game.

The Dolphins aren't playing too bad

And Miami, on the other hand, has won of four of their last five and have covered 6 in a row. Miami is the new hot team in the NFL (excluding Tebow, who is on another level of bandwagon jumping right now). I think they stole the title from Detroit. Everyone loves the Dolphins. They started slow at 0-7, now they’re rolling at 4-8.

The big news for the Eagles this week is that Mike Vick is back. He should be ready to play and he is the reason I am betting the Eagles this week. When Vick plays, the Eagles are a different team, bottom line.

And I’m not sold on the Dolphins. Not as a three point favorites against the Eagles. I know the Eagles have had a rough season, but they have better players than the Dolphins. Matt Moore at QB for Miami? In 9 games he’s putting up 193 yard per game, Vick is getting 243 in the air. Dolphins are relying on Reggie Bush at RB. Bush has had a rough few season, really not living up to his potential. He has four TD’s in his last four games, but is only gaining 60 yard per game on the ground.

Four of Miami’s recent wins have been againt Kansas City, Washington, Buffalo and Oakland. Only that Raiders win sticks out as a decent win. Buffalo is falling apart, and KC and Washington aren’t that good. So their recent ‘hot streak’ hasn’t been against top competition. They did play Dallas tight on Thanksgiving Day, so that is a nice effort (even though they lost).

Just give the ball to Shady.

I know, the Eagles are losing too. Against bad teams and good teams. Sort of an equal opportunity failure this season. But despite being 4-8 they have only been underdogs in two other games, Week 11 against the Giants (+6) and Week 12 at home against New England (+3).  Now they are getting three on the road at Miami with Vick returning? I don’t get it.

If the Eagles are going to win this game they are going to have to rely on Shady and the running game (I say this every week, maybe this week will be the time they actually do it). I really think this week Andy will design a gameplan to use Vick and Shady on the ground as much as possible. I mean, why not? Shady is the leading rushing RB (tied with MJD), and Vick is the leading rushing QB (he’s getting 8.2 yard per carry). Why mess with success? Even without Vick keeping the defense honest we were able to put up 132 yards vs. Seattle last week. The Eagles come in fully rested, it’s been 10 days since their last game, and for a team that has been banged up lately that has to help a little too.

It’s a pretty meaningless game for both teams, but I’m going to say that the better team wins. And the Eagles are the better team. I saw this Tweet on Friday about this game… “The Miami Dolphins look like a big Choc Cake this week, Dont eat it.. Bad Carbs will hurt your pockets.” I think he is saying the Dolphins are a mirage. Sometime gamblers make no sense when they talk in code, but this one was pretty clear and it confirmed what I was already thinking.

How about Andy gets a “too little, too late” win on the road, Eagles 24-20.

The Line: Miami -3, O/U 45
The Pick: Eagles +3
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Miami: 3-0 ATS as a home favorite this season; Eagles: 0-2 ATS vs. AFC East this season.

I need this win. I don’t want to drop to under .500 for the season.





Season Record: 16-16. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments


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The Degenerate: Week 11 Preview and Thursday Night Pick, TEBOW!

Remember back to the fun of three weeks ago, after the Eagles crushed the Cowboys and we were ready to take control of the NFC East. We said that this weekends Giants game was going to be the game of the year, and we would win and get back into first place? I think I’ll quote from my own post that week… “That [Cowboys] game was huge. It got us closer to the Giants, it vaulted us from the ‘and other teams…’ list onto the short list for the NFC title race

Remember the Cowboys game? Wasn't that fun?

Yeah, well forget all that. Now we are in sink or swim mode.

A record of 3-6 with seven just games left. Our playoff chances are getting slimmer and slimmer by the week. That stuff happens when you lose back to back weeks as nine & 14 point favorites. Right now, we are on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. I see a statistic of a 3.6% chance of us making the postseason. And this week it doesn’t get any easier, we go up to the Meadowlands and take on the Giants.

Not only have the Eagles had a rough run of it in the real world, they haven’t done too much to help gamblers who have backed them this season. The Dream Team has been favored every game this season up to this week, and they’re only 3-6 ATS (against the spread). When they actually win a game, they cover the spread, too bad they haven’t won many games this season.

The kicker is that they’ve been favorites of seven points or higher four times (v. Giants, v. 49ers, v. Bears and v. Cardinals), all home games, and they’ve lost them all straight up. I’m trying to dig up how much you would have lost if you bet $100 on the Eagles to win every game on the moneyline (no spread), but an early guess is well over $1000. I’ll try to figure that out and report back in tomorrow’s column.

The good news for us here at The Degenerate is that we got back on the winning side last week, going 2-1 with the picks. Winners on San Francisco and the Packers OVER 50 on Monday Night, loser on the Chargers. I made my last bet on Phillip Rivers last Thursday night, the Chargers are dead to me. No way am I putting any money on them again this season.

This week the NFL throws us a pretty interesting Thursday night matchup, Jets vs. Tebow, I mean the Broncos. I’ll have a pick in that game and a first look at the Eagles / Giants matchup.

Onto the Week 10 review..

Week 10 Revisited

After losing 4 of 5, going 2-1 makes me feel like Einstein.

After a few tough weeks I am happy to say we got back on the winning track last weekend. I can’t blame you if you didn’t follow any of the plays last week since we sucked for 2 weeks in a row, but 2-1 last weekend isn’t bad. it moved us to 12-9 on the season (all of the 2011 picks are documented here). Not great, but still not bad. It’s 57%, still enough to make us a little profit for the season, but that’s irrelevant since this is for amusement purposes only, right?

Chargers -7 over Raiders – this game sucked. If someone informed me that Carson Palmer had an HGH injection I probably would have laid off the game. Seriously, Carson Palmer threw for 300 yards and two TD’s. Michael Bush had 157 yards rushing?

The Chargers were never really in this game, besides a 3-0 lead in the 1st quarter, they never led in the game. Bad showing for the Chargers, and a bad loss for us.  Raiders win 14-17. Loss

49ers -4 over  NY Giants – this one was a little nerve wracking. This was a slugfest, but a little more high scoring than I expected, even though the scoring started slowly. It was all field goals until the 3rd quarter. 12-6 49ers and Eli throws a TD to give the Giants the lead 13-12. 49ers came back with 2 TD’s to take a 27-13 lead.

Eli had one last surge in him, getting the Giants to within seven at 27-20, and driving with a minute left. 49ers needed a red zone stand to get out with the win and the cover. 27-20. Winner

Packers/Vikings OVER 50 – this one was a little too close for comfort. It started off pretty well, the Packers had 14 points before I even sat down on my couch, and then the scoring stopped.

We went into half with a 17-0 Packers lead. I was nervous. But with Aaron Rogers at QB, I knew we still had a chance. And he didn’t disappoint. 21 points in the 3rd quarter. Then it was stuck on 45 points, and it’s garbage time. Here comes Matt Flynn. 10 minutes left, he drives the Packers down for a meaningless TD to put us OVER 50. Packers win, 45-7 final. Winner.

Week 11 Hometown Preview: Eagles @ New York Giants

Opening Line: Giants -3, O/U 47
Current Line: Giants -5, O/U 46.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Underdog is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings. Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

The Giants game is always a bloodbath.

This game is tough to handicap. Mainly because we aren’t sure if Vick is playing. Which is why the line jumped so much. With Vick out the options are Mike Kafka (probably ugh) or Vince Young (definitely ugh). The Giants are for real, FootballOutsiders.com has them as the #8 overall team (#6 offense, #11 defense).

They’re also right in the middle of a tough stretch of games that everyone thought would kill their season. Two weeks ago they knocked off the Patriots on the road as 9 point underdogs. Last week they fought hard in San Francisco as four point dogs and almost pulled off another improbable win. This week they come home and look to keep their lead in the NFC East. Next week it’s @ New Orleans, then home vs. Green Bay and then @ Dallas. Ouch.

New York has had a pretty easy home schedule so far this season, St Louis, Seattle, Miami and Buffalo. But they only have one cover at home, a 12 point Week 2 win vs. Rams as seven point favorites. The Buffalo and Miami games were tight wins (but not covers) and the Giants got knocked off by Seattle as 10 point favorites a few weeks ago.

The Eagles? Well we know their story all too well.

This is a Sunday Night matchup, and the NY crowd will be fired up, they know a win here would pretty much put the final stake in the Eagles season. So expect a raucous crowd (I know, what else would you expect?).

But looking at the trends this seems like a good spot for the Eagles. Road team and Underdogs in this series cover at a pretty good clip, and the Eagles are both.

And last year, we went up there as three point underdogs and then this happened (w/Merrill Reese audio)…

We’ll make a pick in this game on Friday. I’m leaning Eagles and UNDER (seriously).

Thursday Night Football

TNF Bet #1: (a.k.a the “a bet against Tebow is a bet against God” pick): Teaser – Jets pick ’em and UNDER 46

Tebow-mania has hit new heights of absurdity

If you only got your news from ESPN here’s what you know about this game: Tebow Tebow Tebow. Tebow, Tebow Tebow Tebow. (Tebow) Tebow Tebow , Tebow? Jets. Tebow.

Yeah, Tim Tebow makes his national TV debut. NFL Network execs are creaming themselves at the chance to show Tebow vs. the Jets. Big Name player vs. Big Market team. Must See TV. I know I’ll be watching.

I like Tebow, he is a very interesting guy. He has strong beliefs, and he sticks to them. As we’ve seen all too well lately that some people preach one thing and do another (*cough* PSU *cough*), but Tim Tebow seems like the real deal. But that still doesn’t mean I’m going to bet on him.

This line opened at Jets -4, O/U 42.5, and is now Jets -6, O/U 40. All the money is on the Jets. Heck, I think even Mr. and Mrs. Tebow have money on the Jets. Sportsbookspy.com has 84% of the bets on this game going to the Jets. Wow, that’s huge public backing on the Jets minus the points.

But there’s good reason. The Broncos are still an unknown commodity. Tebow has only started 4 games. Yeah, he’s 3-1, but wins over Miami, Oakland and KC aren’t jumping off the page. Those teams have bad defenses (Miami: #21, Oakland #26, KC: #22). The week that they played a team with a decent defense (Detroit: #4) they got shut down, 45-10.

The Jets have a great defense, #2 overall (#2 passing, #5 rushing) and I think they match up well with the Tebow offense (if that’s possible). The Denver passing game is non-existent. Just stick Revis on Eric Decker and that’s that. This will force Tebow to keep it on the ground with whatever types of wildcat plays he plans to run. Add to that both Denver RB’s are hurting. Knowshow Moreno is out (ACL), and Willis McGahee is questionable tonight. So Tebow is out there all alone, his top WR will be all stranded on Revis Island, and his only functioning RB will be playing hurt, if he plays at all. Could be a long night for Tebow.

Whatever you do, just don't blow the game for us, ok?

That brings us to the Jets. They are pretty average on offense, #15th overall. (#13th passing, #14th rushing). LaDanian Tomlinson is out. So it’s going to be all Shonn Greene in the backfield. So I think tonight it comes down to Mark Sanchez and a short passing game. Can he get it done vs the #24 ranked pass defense? I think he can, but with a ball control mentality. I saw an article in the NY Daily News that said Sanchez is basically a ‘game manager’ now. Translation: play conservative and don’t screw anything up.

With the Jets D shutting down Tebow and Sanchez playing ‘game manager’, I think this will be a low scoring game, and the total of 40 shows me that Vegas thinks so to.

Both teams are desperate for a win, The Broncos are 4-5 but only a game out of 1st place in the AFC West, and the Jets are 5-4 and a game out of the AFC EAst. The Jets are also in the mix for a wildcard spot. Denver is playing well, three wins in four games, but they are 1-3 at home. The Jets are 1-3 on the road, so something has to give.

And logistically, the Jets are in a tough position. They played the Sunday Night game vs. New England, now they fly West and play again 4 days later in Mile High (or whatever it’s called), and in this time they have to prepare for the crazy Tebow offense? I still they can do it (In Rex We Trust), but I’m not willing to lay 6 points on the road. I also like the UNDER, so I think I’ll throw out a ‘Thursday Night Teaser of the Week’, how about Jets and UNDER. With the 6 points it will take the lines to Jets pick ‘em, Under 46.

Let’s say Rex and the Jets shut down Tebow, Sanchez plays a conservative game and the Jets come away with a 24-13 win.

C’mon Rex, get it done.

The Line: Jets -6, O/U 40
The Pick: Teaser: Jets pick ‘em + Under 46

Back on Friday with the Sunday picks






Season Record: 12-9. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments


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Time’s Yours Podcast: RIP 2011 Philadelphia Eagles

There were three ways the Eagles game against the Arizona Cardinals could have gone.

The first way was the Eagles take their frustrations out on the terrible Cardinals, and beat them something like 41-7.

The second way was the Eagles stumble through the game, but still somehow come out on top. Maybe a final score of something like 20-10.

It ended up going the third way. An uninspired loss against a awful team, thereby all but crushing any hope the team had of making the playoffs.

Lots of talent? Yes. Lots of disappointment? For sure. But what does it all mean for the organization? And just why did Steve Smith fall down two yards before the first down marker? Will the Time’s Yours Podcast last longer than the guy who coined the phrase, “time’s yours?”

Lee Russakoff and I break it all down.

Check out Lee Russakoff on Twitter @LeeRussakoff.

Subscribe to the Time’s Yours podcast on iTunes by clicking here.  (do it)

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Time’s Yours Podcast: The Eagles, What The Hell Is Going On Here?

A massive system failure is the best way to describe last night’s Eagles game against the Bears.

Once again a 4th quarter lead vanished as the defense couldn’t stop anyone, and the offense couldn’t muster up that one last drive.

On the Time’s Yours podcast today, Lee Russakoff blames the defense and the coaching, and I finally get mad.

Oh, and no more DRC. We can agree on that, right?

Follow Lee Russakoff on Twitter @LeeRussakoff.

Subscribe to the Time’s Yours podcast on iTunes by clicking here.


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The Degenerate: Week 9 MNF: Bring on the Bears!

Losing sucks. Especially when we were on such a nice winning streak for a few weeks. We lost our pick yesterday with Dallas laying 11′, the Cowboys could only muster a 10 point win. They had plenty of chances to expand the lead but they ended up with early FG’s instead of TD’s, and a late 4th quarter TD drive from Seattle sealed the pointspread loss. It wasn’t quite a backdoor cover because there was still six minutes left, but it felt the same. That’s karma for betting on the Cowboys, I guess. Oh, and Eli drove 80 yards at the end of the 4th quarter to beat the Patriots in Foxboro? Bad Sunday all around.

Ok, enough looking back let’s look forward to tonight’s big Eagles matchup.

Monday Night Football, Eagles vs. Chicago Bears. Let’s make a pick and get back on the winning track.

Another game under the lights

So, it wasn’t too long ago that the ‘football experts’ were throwing dirt on the Eagles’ grave. Andy was on his way out, the Dream Team was a bust, you can’t buy a championship, etc. Now, after two division wins including an impressive beatdown of the Cowboys last week, the Eagles are suddenly the ‘hot’ team in the NFL. Everyone in town is back on the bandwagon (or so says Jason Avant) and the rest of the league is taking notice. Note to Jason: we never left.

The division race is heating up, it’s currently a three way race with the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys. Every week is a must win now for the Eagles as they try to keep pace. And with the Giants beating the Patriots on Sunday, we need this win even more. A loss will drop us 3 games out, and that would be tough to recover from with 8 games left. Really, there’s not alot of margin for error at this point in the season for Andy and the boys.

The Bears, on the other hand, are 4-3 but seemingly in a worse position than the Eagles. Forget division title, they’re probably looking at a wildcard spot at best. Yes, they are 4-3 (better record than the Eagles), but they’re not catching the Packers for the division title. They beat Atlanta at home to open the season, but since then they have pretty much beaten the bad teams and lost to the good teams. They have wins against Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Carolina (and Atlanta), and losses to New Orleans, Detroit and Green Bay. All the losses were by double digits, so maybe the Eagles laying eight is the play? I don’t know. I think this will be a tight, low scoring game. So I decided to look at the total.

Job #1: Stopping Forte

I know I’m killing you all with the UNDER picks lately, but I’m doing it again. I like the Eagles/Bears UNDER 47.5. UNDERs hit big on Sunday, 10 of 13 games went under, including all of the 1pm games.

Also, another trend to note is that teams off of the bye week (like the Bears) have hit 17 UNDERS in 23 games this season (including Sundays games). Note: The Eagles were coming off of a bye week last week and went UNDER.

The Eagles got a big win last Sunday night over Dallas, 34-7, and they were in control the whole game. The offense continued to show that they can move the ball, Shady took his game to another level (is he the best RB? 2nd best behind AP?), and the defense showed that they can step up and shut down a good offense. Chicago had a bye week, and 2 weeks ago they were in London to play the Bucs and they came away with a 24-18 win as 1.5 point favorites. They’re coming in rested and ready.

I’m expecting the Bears to keep it on the ground and not try to challenge our D-backs, I don’t think Jay Cutler has it in him to beat us by himself and the Bears know this. I would expect Chicago to rely on Forte for most of the offense (rushing , or catching passes out of the backfield). And since the Eagles are only ranked 30th vs the run (and 8th vs. the pass), I think that might be a good choice for Chicago.

I think we'll see alot of Shady

The Eagles defense has clamped down the past two games, giving up 13 points to Washington and 7 to Dallas. That, coupled with the Bears relying on the run, makes me think that this will be a ball control, short yardage type of game. Which would lend itself to the UNDER.

The Chicago defense is good. Ranked 10th overall at FootballOutsiders.com (12th vs. run and 12 vs. pass). Mike Vick and the offense have been playing well the past few games, so I expect them to be able to move the ball, but probably not at the rate they did vs. Dallas. Chicago D has played well the past 2 games, giving up less than 300 yards total offense in both games, and under 50 yard rushing (vs. Vikings: 286 total yards (50 yards rushing); vs. Bucs: 280 total yards (30 yard rushing)).

I’m expecting a low scoring, ball control type of game. Weather won’t be an issue, but it will be cold at gametime (40 degrees and clear skies). How about we keep giving it to Shady, Vick pulls out a few tricks, we control Forte and the Eagles move to .500 with a 27-10 win.

The Line: Eagles -8, O/U 47.5
The Pick: Eagles / Bears UNDER 47.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Chicago: Under is 20-8 in CHI last 28 road games.

Let’s get this one and close out the week with a winner.





Season Record: 10-7. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

  • Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
  • Email me fantasource@gmail.com
  • Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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Time’s Yours Podcast: The Eagles Dismantle The Cowboys

My good friend Lee Russakoff has been Mr. Negative about the Eagles the last few weeks.

After the Eagles complete and total domination of the Cowboys last night, the thought of them making the playoffs is a little bit easier to swallow. Well, for most people. Let’s see if Lee’s with us.

We talk Vick at his best, McCoy being the best, Castillo’s defense coming alive and how they can win the division.

Click here and subscribe to Time’s Yours on iTunes.

Follow Lee Russakoff on Twitter @LeeRussakoff.

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Time’s Yours Podcast: The Eagles, Do You Believe?

Amazing as it sounds, the Eagles actually won on Sunday. It begs the question, “do you believe?” Lee Russakoff and I talk it over. Listen by clicking “Read The Full Story.”

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Time’s Yours Podcast: Is The Eagles Season Over?

I had Lee Russakoff (follow @LeeRussakoff) on the first Spike Eskin Dot Com Show this morning. We talked about whether the Eagles have any chance to save the season, and if Andy Reid can save his job.

Click “Read The Full Story” to listen to the podcast.

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A Karmic Smack In The Face For Philly Sports Fans

It’s the start of September; the Eagles just had the best off-season in the NFL. The Phillies have the best record in baseball and the best pitching staff of all time. Fast forward.

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