Tag Archive | "handicapping"

The Degenerate Podcast: This Week’s NFL Three-Team Teaser

TV - Special Kenny Rogers, Ray Charles - 19790316

Two editions of The Degenerate down.

Two three-team teasers given by Fantasource.

Two WINNING three team-teasers given by Fantasource.

We go for three in a row, discuss this weekend’s trends, and introduce a rating scale for the three-teamers with a DELCO theme.

Follow Fantasource (Delco Legend) on Twitter @Fantasource.

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin.

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Subscribe to the podcast via RSS here.

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The Degenerate: Monday Night Pick: Can I Get A Winner, Please?

Well, I won my fantasy games this weekend. So that’s kinda cool.

Thanks to the defense, we stayed in that game

Ok, so this weekend was not the start I expected to the 2012 gambling season. We started 0-2 and they weren’t even close. I know the Eagles pulled out a 4th quarter shocker and beat the Browns on a last minute drive but they were laying 9.5. So it wasn’t even close to sniffing a cover in the 4th quarter. And the penalties?! Oh lord, the penalties. Hopefully they review the rulebook in practice this week, I’m not sure if our guys know what they can and can’t do.

On the bright side, the Juan Castillo defense really put the screws to Brandon Weeden. But I think if we were playing against a half-decent QB (Colt McCoy?) we probably would have lost that one. But you know what, a win is a win and in Week 13 when we are fighting for the division lead we won’t remember how bad we looked yesterday. Looking forward to week 2 and it doesn’t get any easier, Baldymoore is coming to town. Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin. If we play sloppy like yesterday then those guys will beat us. It’s gonna be a tough one. No line yet, but it should be close to a pick ’em depending on how Baltimore looks on Monday Night.

And speaking of Monday night, we have a doubleheader tonight, Bengals at Ravens and Chargers at Raiders. But only one game looks like a value, the Chargers at Raiders, so let’s get into that one…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “10pm start? I’ll be asleep by halftime” bet): Oakland Raiders -1 over San Diego Chargers

Raiders fans. They are one of a kind.

I actually like the Raiders to make some noise this year. In my Saturday column I had them picked to win the AFC West. I think that the AFC West could be a battle. All 4 teams are pretty good, but no team stands out from the rest (although Denver looked pretty good last night).

The Chargers lost Vincent Jackson to free agency, and will probably not have Ryan Matthews tonight. So it will be Phillip Rivers looking to Antonio Gates for his offense tonight.  Last season, the Raiders lost in Week 17 to the Chargers at home, and that loss knocked them out of the playoffs race. I think they will remember that. The Raiders have a new GM, and a new Head Coach and are looking to (new and improved!) Carson Palmer to continue where he left off last season, in that Week 17 loss he threw for 417 yards.

The Raiders also get Darren McFadden back, he has been banged up his whole career and missed half the season last year with a foot injury. The Raiders should be able to move the ball with Palmer and McFadden. But their defense is another story.

The Raiders defense was not good last season, to put it kindly. 27th in defensive efficiency at Football Outsiders. But I think they use the home field advantage (one of the best in the NFL) and the arm of Carson Palmer version 2.0 and get a big opening win against a division rival. Could be high scoring, but I’ll stay away from the total and just take the Raiders.

How about Oakland starts fresh with a 30-20 win at home.

And oh yeah, I can’t forget that Phillip Rivers cost me money last year. It was Halloween Night, Chargers were lining up for a FG to win (and push -3) and he muffs the hold? I haven’t forgotten about that, Phil. Go Raiders!

The Line: Oakland Raiders -1, O/U 47
The Pick: Raiders -1
Game trends (via Covers.com): Oakland is 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Chargers; OVER is 5-0 last 5 in Oakland in this series.

Let’s get a winner! (I really need one)

Season Record: 0-2 (booooo!)

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Twitter:
Email: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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The Degenerate: Week 1 picks; Meet the Super Bowl Champs…

So, last year was a mess. 8-8. Andy and the crew salvaged the season with a 4 game winning streak at the end , but no playoffs. And you know, the Eagles didn’t deserve the postseason anyway. But this is a new year, new attitude, new everything.

Well, except the players, they’re pretty much the same as last year. Mike Vick, Lesean McCoy and Desean Jackson could be one of the top offensive trios in the league. The defense is solid, and I’m more comfortable with Juan Castillo as DC this season (but one bad defensive game and he’s back on the hot seat). To say I’m pretty optimistic about this season is an understatement, as you’ll see below I have high hopes for the Eagles in 2012-13…

(Click to embiggen)

I mean, it’s really as simple as that. 11-5, easy peezy. You might be able to swap the Ravens win and the Steelers loss, and we could grab another win somewhere else. I’m looking at 11-5, 12-4 if things break right (and Vick stays healthy). Yeah, I’m an optimistic kind of guy. And every year my heart gets smashed into a million pieces.

And yeah, this is pretty pointless, but here is my lame attempt at picking the division winners, wildcards teams and Super Bowl champions.

Super Bowl or Bust

NFC East – Philadelphia Eagles
NFC South – New Orleans Saints
NFC North – Green Bay Packers
NFC West – Seattle Seahawks

NFC Wildcard #1 – Dallas Cowboys
NFC Wildcard #2 – San Francisco 49ers
(yes, I know I left out the Falcons and Giants. 49ers should win the West, but I like Russell Wilson, so I’m picking Seattle.)

AFC East – New England Patriots
AFC South – Houston Texans
AFC North – Baltimore Ravens
AFC West – Oakland Raiders

AFC Wildcard #1 – Denver Broncos
AFC Wildcard #2 – Buffalo Bills
(Yeah, no Steelers, or Chargers, or Jets. And I’m really sticking my neck out with the Raiders. But the AFC West is a crapshoot, why not take a longshot?)

NFC Championship: Eagles over Packers
AFC Championship: Texans over Patriots

Super Bowl:
Eagles over Texans (yup, I went there).

So there you are, your Eagles will be the 2012-13 Super Bowl Champions. Get your hotel reservations for New Orleans now.

Onto the Week 1 pick, which coincidentally also involves the Eagles…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “You saw my Super Bowl pick, of course I’m picking the Eagles” bet): Eagles -9.5 over Browns

Hi Brandon Weeden, welcome to hell.

I’ve been eyeing this game since the schedule came out. Our first step on the road a Super Bowl title. Let’s be honest, the Browns aren’t that good. They ended last season with the 25th rated offense, and they are opening the season with a rookie QB (Brandon Weeden) and a rookie RB (Trent Richardson? Um, ok.

The Eagles defense is licking their lips to get a hold of the youngsters on Sunday. They led the league in sacks last season with 50 and should be able to put plenty of  pressure on Weeden all day. Trent Richardson isn’t even 100%, so he may be limited on Sunday. I like the Eagles defense to smother the young Browns offense.

On the other side of the ball the Browns actually have a decent pass defense. 2nd overall last year, only giving up 185 passing yard per game. But their rush defense isn’t so hot. 29th out of 32, 147 yards per game. So it should be a good mix of Shady on the ground this week.

The Eagles ended last season winning 4 straight by an average of 20 points. I just think this is a game where the Eagles are the better team and it will show on Sunday.

I’ll say the Eagles start their season with a big 31-13 win at the Dog Pound.

The Line: Eagles -9.5, O/U 43.5
The Pick: Eagles -9.5
Game trends (via Covers.com): Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 season openers; Browns are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.

I also was leaning towards picking Houston Texans -12.5 over Miami but I laid off once I heard Arian Foster was a gametime decision. I can’t lay that number without knowing if the #1 RB is going to play. It probably won';t make a difference, but it’s a long season so no need to force a pick here.

Good luck this week. Let’s try to bounce back off of the Giants loss on Wednesday.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Twitter:
Email: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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The Degenerate: Opening Night Pick; We’re baaaaack…

Ohai, welcome back. Have a seat. Can I get you a glass of Courvoisier?

Have a seat, let’s talk about the Giants/Cowboys game.

Here we are, back for another season of ‘The Degenerate‘, your favorite weekly NFL picks column. We had a good run last year (but we lost our Super Bowl pick, booo!). I had alot of fun writing the column and I’m back to do it again, so I’ll try to keep it entertaining and maybe help you all  make some money while we’re at it (but this is for amusement purposes only, of course).

To say that I’m happy that NFL football is back is an understatement. I mean the Phillies have had a nice run lately, but this was a brutal season overall. And now they are teasing us, making us think “well, they could still get that the 2nd wildcard”, but we all know it’s not happening (just kidding, it’s totally happening, and I’m all in until October 1st). Red means Go.

I know you have all been wondering, “Hey Fantasource, what have you been up to since we last talked?” Well, I‘m glad you asked. I did a few fun things this summer… but the most fun was heading up to the horse races in Saratoga (it rained, but we had a cooler full of pounders and we won a little money. All good.)


And oh yeah, I bet Paul Ryan at +1500 to win the VP nomination. A Jackson got me $300, so that was kinda cool. #TeamEddieMunster

Romney/Ryan… already stimulating the economy.

If you followed along last year you know that we had a very nice run with our NFL picks here at The Degenerate. We ended the season at 57% against the spread (not bad) and the Monday Night picks were smoking hot at 69% (9-4). You can see all of the 2011 picks documented here). I’d like to think there was some skill involved, like I didn’t just flip a coin and hope for the best (at least not most weeks). And I’m looking forward to doing it again.

But enough about the past. Let’s talk about the future. Like the immediate future. Tonight! Cowboys! Giants! NFL 2012-13 kickoff.

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “If we lose we’ll just blame the replacement refs” bet): NY Giants -3.5 OVER Dallas Cowboys

The NFL season starts on a Wednesday night this year. Yeah, kinda weird, but the Democrats are having their convention this week so the NFL moved the game from Thursday as to not interfere with President Obama’s acceptance speech. Good for them. Whatever.

The first week of the NFL season is always a little tough to handicap. You never know what teams will take a step up and be better (like the 49ers last year), and what teams will fall apart (um, I guess that would’ve been the Eagles last year). But in this one, I don’t really expect a much different look from either team compared to last year.

The Giants are coming off of another Super Bowl win (pardon me while I go throw  up). And yeah, as much as I hate the Giants you gotta tip your cap to Eli, 2 rings in 8 seasons. Good work, Peyton’s little brother. But did the Giants get any better from last year? Any worse? They have Eli, a power running game, some very good wide receivers, a killer defensive line, and rosy-cheeked Tom Coughlin. Yup, it’s pretty much same recipe as last year.

ELI!

And on the other hand, there are the Cowboys. It’s the same story for them, too. A crazy owner,  Tony Romo behind center, pretty good RB’s, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin at WR (both formidable players when healthy), and a Rob Ryan defense that can’t seem to stop the Giants from scoring (giving up 37 and 31 points to the Giants last year). Dallas tried to upgrade their defensive backfield in the offseason and if the preseason numbers are any indication, they are an improved bunch. But I think Eli and Cruz will test the rookie Claiboirne, we’ll see if he is up for the task.

I’m going with the Giants -3.5 in this one. Kinda seems like a spot where the Giants buckle down and get a big win. Laying 3.5 points in their home opener against the banged up Cowboys? I like my chances. Jason Witten is a game time decision (spleen), Miles Austin hasn’t played at all this preseason due to hamstring problems, and Dez Bryant is nursing a bum knee (oh yeah, he also slapped him mom in the face a few weeks ago). The Giants d-line should be able to get to Romo (they sacked him 6 times in their 31-17 win in Week 17 ). Unless they get a 200 yard rushing game from DeMarco Murray I just don’t see where the Cowboys offense comes from. And that will be the big difference.

“But what about the replacement refs!?!?!” Yeah, I know the refs will be the big story this weekend, but they’ll be terrible for both teams. And hopefully their bad calls even out and they don’t have an impact on the final score. But I guess time will tell.

“But what about the weather!?!” Yeah, looks like some rain tonight in North Jersey but according to latest forecasts rain shouldn’t impact the game.

How about we say Eli throws a few TD’s, the Giants d-line sacks Romo a bunch of times and the Giants grab a nice division win, 27-17.

The Line: Giants -3.5, O/U 46
The Pick: Giants -3.5
Game trends (via Covers.com): Giants are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Cowboys; OVER is 5-1 last 6 in the series, Last 12 years the Super Bowl champ from the previous season is 8-2-2 ATS in the opening game the next season.

Season Record: 0-0.

Let’s get a winner tonight and come back Friday for the rest of the Week 1 picks, including Eagles / Browns.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Twitter:
Email: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Pick – So, Who Do You Hate Less?

Like Huey Lewis said, “So, this is it.” It’s the last Degenerate column for the 2011-12 NFL season. And you know what, I think this season was pretty successful. Yeah, we had some rough patches (like losing 5 in a row at one point), but we are ending the season on a nice streak, hitting 9 of our last 11 picks. Sweet.

We had a winner in the AFC Championship with the Ravens +7 over the Patriots. Now let’s end the season on a high note with a Super Bowl winner. That would make me happy, and it would put us at 26-18 (59%) on the season. Not too shabby. And as an added bonus, we also solicited Super Bowl picks from some “Friends of SpikeEskin.com”, including meteorologist/sports nut John Bolaris.

Yesterday, I posted my picks in some Super Bowl props, The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Props – Fishnets, Gatorade and Belly Buttonscheck it out here.

The ‘Friends of SpikeEskin.com’ picks:

Spike Eskin – 94WIP, CBS, this site (@SpikeEskin):

Prediction: Giants – (-12) over Patriots (-17)

In the worst Super Bowl of all time, the Giants prevail with a negative score. The refs will discuss for over an hour whether -12 is actually greater than -17. Eli Manning will look like he’s smelling a fart. At least the hoodie will go to sleep sad.

 

Cranekicker from CraneKickChronicles.com (@Cranekicker)

Prediction: Patriots 27 Giants 20

Rationale: I want both teams to lose but I have come to grips with that being impossible. And despite what a local shockjock wrote in a recent column, I cannot root for the Giants. The only time you will catch me cheering for the Giants is when they are fumbling or throwing interceptions.

The truth is, Eli Manning is really good and the Giants run a great organization and I can’t stand it. I’d rather have Boston fans yucking it up from a far than loud mouthed New Yorkers right around the corner professing their love for Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning when really they tried to run both of them out of town. So I lay my hopes with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. This all makes me sick. Thank God for buffalo chicken dip and block pools. Brady with a late TD to Hernandez for the win. Here’s a picture of Andre Tippett.
Andre Tippett

 

Pat Gallen from Phillies Nation and 97.3 ESPN Radio (@PatGallen_PN):

Prediction: Giants 30, Pats 26. It pains me to go this way, but the Giants D is playing really well right now, and the Patriots D isn’t really all that great. Eli wins…dammit

 

John Bolaris (@JohnBolaris):

Prediction: Giants 27, Pats 24. Don’t like Pats D. Giants going in Hot. Eli has been huge this year especially 4th quarter. Brady can still cut u up like a fine surgeon. And what is against the Giants, the pure probability factor that it’s really tough to beat any NFL team twice in the same year especially when you’re dealing with Pats & Brady. That being said Pats defense should be their downfall. JB

 

Meech – the guy who killed The Fightins (@meechone):

Prediction: Giants 30, Pats 24 (OT)

 

CBS3’s Chris May (@chrismayphilly):

Prediction: Patriots 27 Giants 21. Brady’s your MVP.

 

Zoo With Roy (@zoowithroy):

Prediction: YEAH GIRL PUT IT IN THE BANK: Giants 37, Pats 34

 

CSN’s Marshall Harris (@mharrisCSN):

Prediction: I got the Giants 35-31.

 

Philly.com’s Ryan Petzar(@petzrawr):

Prediction: 21-10 Pats.

 

Dan Roche – Daily News Live Producer  (@RochesRWinners):
Some predictions:

Duration of Kelly Clarkson’s National Anthem:

Over 1:34
Under 1:34
Will be delayed until she finishes her sandwich 

Will Clarkson show her midriff?

Yes (1/3)
No (4/1)
My eyes!! My eyes!! √

What will be higher on Super Bowl Sunday?

Patriots points(-115)
LeBron James points vs Raptors (-115)
Drexel University’s campus (no line) 

What will be shown more frequently?
Peyton Manning’s Face
The “Eli Manning Face” 

Oh yeah, the game:

Patriots 27 (-2½) √
Giants 24

 

Kevin Cooney of PhillyBurbs.com (@KevinCooney)

Too many people are taking Eli and Coughlin… I’m going with opposite world. I can’t see Brady and Belichick losing two Super Bowls to the same team. Plus, the Giants won’t be able to cover the two tight ends.

Prediction:Patriots 31, Giants 24


Ok, not that my pick carries any more weight than those above (who am I kidding, this is the only one that matters), but here we go…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “I only watch it for the commercials” pick)
New England Patriots -2½ over New York Giants

My money is on this guy.

In a ‘lesser of two evils’ selection, I’m going with the Patriots.

Picking this game is kind of like choosing between stubbing your toe or banging your funnybone. Neither one is too appealing. On the one hand you have the Patriots. God’s gift to the NFL (or so their fans would make you think), they have a Hall of Fame QB, an evil wizard coach and no defense, yet they are scoring at a record pace and went 15-3. The Pats have 7 Super Bowl appearances and 3 Lombardi Trophy’s. On the other hand you have the Giants. Yeah, no further explanation necessary. I’ve been raised since day 1 to hate strongly dislike the Giants, and it seems like every few years they just go out of their way to rub my face in it. They have 3 Super Bowl titles in 5 appearances. (But I thought we were the Dream Team?)

My outfit on Sunday.

I put my personal biases aside and I looked at this game with a neutral eye. And when I broke it down I just think the Patriots are the better team with the better coach and the better QB. Yeah, their defense stinks, but that isn’t news. The Gronkowski injury is distracting people from the bigger picture, even without Gronk the Patriots have another very good tight end (Aaron Hernadez) and Wes Welker, the receiving corp is going to be fine. Brady is going against the 21st ranked pass defense, he’ll do alright. The Broncos had the 24th ranked pass defense and you saw what he did to them, twice. Two weeks ago they played the Baltimore Ravens (the best defense in the NFL) and they were able to put up 23 points. The Pats running game is pretty good too, 4th ranked overall. BenJarvus Green-Ellis should be able to move the ball against the Giants 19th ranked rush defense. Pats Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien is leaving New England to coach Penn State, so there is some extra motivation (if it was even needed) to send him out a winner.

I expect the Giants to try to take advantage of the New England pass defense, so expect lots of Eli Manning passes, and he has some pretty good weapons to work with. Manningham, Cruz and Nicks. That’s three solid receivers right there. And the Giants running game is decent, Bradshaw and Jacobs should see alot of touches, especially if New York gets an early lead. I’m not saying the Patriots will shut down Eli and the Giants defense, I just think that the Patriots defense will be ready.

I’ll keep it short, here are 3 reasons why I like the Patriots to win and cover on Sunday:

  1. Nah, this isn't gonna happen again.

    This is a revenge game (times two) for New England. Not only did the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII to ruin the Patriots undefeated season, they also went into Foxboro this season in Week 9 and beat New England. After that loss the Patriots went on a 10 game winning streak. Brady isn’t going to forget that Week 9 loss, nor has he forgotten that 2008 Super Bowl upset. He has a chance to right a wrong on the biggest stage of all.

  2. Everyone is betting the Giants. So, naturally I have to look to the other side. The early money came in on the Giants, which makes sense. The early bettors grabbed the Giants at +3½ and the line dropped to +3. And even more  money came in on the Giants, forcing the line to drop further to 2½ on Friday morning. And laying 2½ is where you bang the Patriots. From Covers.com: “The majority of the early money, both sharp and square, has been on the Giants. CNBC’s Darren Rovell tweeted that 80 percent of the max $25,000 bets at the offshore sportsbook BetOnline.com were on the Giants”.
  3. The Patriots are the better team. Yes, everyone says “the defense stinks”, “Eli is gonna light them up”. Well, they’ve had the same terrible defense all season, and they’re 15-3. They average 32 points per game, and they only give up 20 points. Compare that to the Giants. New York scores 25 and gives up 23. So, shouldn’t we be saying the Giants defense stinks? I don’t know, this seems like a pretty even matchup and if I’m laying down my money on either Eli or Brady, I’ll take Brady.

I’ll say, the Patriots get their revenge in front of an enormous TV audience, in the most anticipated Super Bowl in recent memory, in Peyton Manning’s living room. Brady and the Patriots win, 27-20.

The Line: New England -2½, O/U 54
The Pick: New England -2½
Game Trends (via Covers.com): New England: 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games. New York: 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.

Thanks for reading the NFL picks column all year, good luck!!

(Yes, I’ll be back with some other stuff, March Madness, baseball, NBA playoffs, etc.)

Fantasource

Season Record: 25-18. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Props – Fishnets, Gatorade and Belly Buttons.

Well, it’s finally here. The Super Bowl.

Back in August when all of us Eagles fans were looking ahead to the season I’m sure alot of us pictured the Eagles playing this week. Well, we all know what happened. Not quite a Super Bowl run, but an interesting season nonetheless. Andy is coming back, Juan is coming back, pretty much the same story next year, let’s hope we have more success. But enough about the Birds, it’s Super Bowl week.

We’re going to approach the Super Bowl in two installments here at SpikeEskin.com. Today, we’ll take a look at prop bets. Prop bets are those crazy bets that you hear people talking about on TV and radio, pretty much any scenario you want to bet on is available.  They make for interesting conversation, and keep people talking during the leadup to the game when nothing else is happening.

Some are pretty basic football bets, “How many passing attempts for Tom Brady?”, “How many completions for Eli Manning?”. But the ‘wacky’ prop bets are the ones that get most of the attention, bets like “Who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first in his postgame interview?”, “How many times will they show Robert Kraft on camera”, stuff like that. I don’t know if there is any real way to handicap some of these, but I’ll break a few down and give out my picks.

So, today it’s the prop bets and tomorrow will be the picks. I’ll make a pick in the game (as usual), but I’m pretty excited to say that we’ll also have Super Bowl picks from some of our favorite folks in the internet world (Twitter legends, bloggers, local celebs, etc.). Spike hasn’t unvelied the complete list to me, but some of the early names look interesting. That should be a fun read tomorrow.

I found these props and their odds from Sportsbook.com, but these props and many, many others are available at almost all online sports books (and in the Vegas casinos, as well). Even my local guy offers a long list of props to pick from. I included a PDF from Sportsbook.com if you want to print some out and bring them to your Super Bowl party (for amusement purposes only, of course).

Last year a buddy of mine had Jordy Nelson to score the first TD at 11-1. And yeah, when Nelson broke that TD and scored, it was cha-ching for him. Nice payday and it was still the first quarter. These payouts aren’t as high paying, but they will be fun to track, so let’s get to it…

1) What will be higher Eli Manning Completions (+120) or Lebron James Points (-150)

Yup, you can bet on LeBron in a Super Bowl prop

Before you decide on this wager you need to put a number on both options. Eli’s completions? Flacco went 22-36 for 306 yards vs. the Patriots 2 weeks ago, so you can use that as a starting point. So, you have to think Eli will do something similar, his over/under for completions is 24.5 with more juice on the Over, so Vegas thinks around 25/26. So how about we say 26 total completions for Eli.

LeBron plays the Raptors on Sunday afternoon. That game should be a blow out, and I don’t expect LeBron to play the whole game. But even 3 quarters of LeBron will get you 26+ points. LeBron has been held under 26 points only 4 times this season.

Fantasource says: I’ll take LeBron to have more points. But it could be close. How about Eli completes 26, LeBron scores 30.

2) What will be higher Tom Brady TD Passes (-115) or Bruins Total Goals (-115)

How many TD’s do you think Tom Brady will throw? I’ll say 3. That’s just a guess. I know for sure that he won’t throw 6 like he did against the Broncos. And the Bruins goals? They’re leading the NHL in goals per game (3.5), and they play the Capitals who give up 2.8 goals per game. So let’s say 3+ goals for the Bruins.

Fantasource says: I’ll take the Bruins Total Goals to be higher. It’s gonna be tough for Brady to get more than 3 TD’s. I’ll wager that the Bruins have a decent chance at 4+ goals.

3) How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem? From first note starts until she completes saying “Brave”.

Over 1 minute 34 Seconds (-120)
Under 1 minute 34 Seconds (-120)

Are we gonna see that belly?

This one is so dumb that you have to love it. And you know what, someone actually did alot of research on this. So here’s all you ever wanted to know, and then some, about the National Anthem prop bet from BeyondTheBets.com. “Super Bowl National Anthem: Will Clarkson’s rendition fall short of 1:34 over/under?”

Fantasource says: BeyondTheBets says Under. But Covers.com says they like the Over. And I say… Under. BeyondTheBets.com makes a more compelling case than Covers.com. But really, if you’re betting this you might have a problem (but that is probably true for most of these prop bets).

4) Will Kelly Clarkson’s bare belly be showing when she sings the National Anthem?

Yes +300

For this one I consulted my pop-culture expert, Mrs. Fantasource. Her analysis was this, “Well, if she shows her belly it won’t be on purpose. She’s a little chunky.”

Fantasource says: Actually Mrs. Fantasource says: “No, at least not on purpose.” So, no bet on this one for me.

5) Will Madonna be wearing fishnet stockings at any point during the Super Bowl Halftime show?

Yes -120
No -120

As much as this might be a “who the hell knows?” type of bet, there is some recent history to go back on. In the past month Madonna has been photographed a few times, most times she is wearing fishnets. I guess the Material Girl is trying fishnets as party of her new look. WagerMinds.com did some research as well and came to the conclusion that ‘Yes’ is a good bet. So believe it or not, I’m saying bet ‘Yes’ on this one.

Fantasource says: Bet Yes. Fishnets are in this season, at least for Madonna, and she will wear them proudly.

6) How many times will David Tyree’s 2008 Super Bowl catch be shown be shown on TV during the game? From kick off until final whistle. Half-time does not count towards wager.

Over 1 (-160)
Under 1 (+120)

You gotta go OVER. No doubt. You have to expect it’s coming at least once, and at that point you’ll have a push. Will it happen twice? Unlikely, but you never know. If it’s late and the game is tight, or if there is a crazy catch by a Giants WR they may show it again.

Fantasource says: Bet OVER. At the very least you should get a push.

7) Which region will have the higher local TV Rating?
Boston -7 (-120)
New York +7 (-120)

I don’t know much about TV ratings, but I know the Bostonians love to watch their Pats. When these teams played in Super Bowl XLII the Giants got crushed in the ratings. Boston came in with a 55.6 local rating, New York got 44.9 local. Why would this year be any different? I think it might even be a higher difference.

Fantasource says: Lay the 7 ratings points (or whatever they’re called) and cash in. Boston is the solid play here. If there was a ‘best bet’, this would be it.

8 ) Longest Completion – Eli Manning (NYG) Over/Under 45½ yards
Over -130
Under EVEN

Fishnets!

I’m going on a hunch here and saying that Eli will be able to find one of his WR’s for a long gain. The Patriots pass defense is not good. I mean, Tebow even got a 41 yard pass in, and he played terrible. Eli got a 66 yard pass against the Packers and 36 yarder against a tough 49ers defense. A combination of a talented Giants receiving corp and a bad Patriots defense makes me say over is a Over.

Fantasource says: I like the OVER 45½ yards. I think Eli will test the Pats pass defense, and Eli’s WR’s have the speed and talent to break a long one.

9) What Color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?

Clear/Water – 2/1
Yellow – 2/1
Orange – 9/4
Red – 11/2
Green – 6/1
Blue – 10/1

Fantasource says: Clear/Water is the choice here, and at 2/1 it’s a nice bet. Bill Belicheck has been doused with only water in his Patriots coaching career. And when the Giants won in 2008, yup, Coughlin got a water bath (see the image at the top). Go with ‘Clear/Water’ and meet me at the cash window for your 2/1 payout.

10) What will be higher, Hakeem Nicks Receptions (-115) OR Total Goals in the Flyers/Rangers game (-115)?

Flyers fans, this one is for you. The Over/Under for Hakeem Nick receptions is 5½, and the juice is on the UNDER. So Vegas is thinking 5 or fewer receptions. But I expect Eli to be tossing all day, and Nicks is one of his main targets. Flyers/Rangers total goals? These teams have played 3 times this season, with total goals of 2,6, and 5. The Rangers are only giving up 2.0 goals per game, and scoring 2.8. The Flyers are scoring 3.3, and surrendering 2.9. We can put the total goals at a max of 6 and hope Hakeem Nicks is Eli’s main target. I like Nicks here.

Fantasource says:  Flyers/Rangers should be low scoring, and Eli should be tossing it all day. I like Nicks’ Receptions to be higher.

So there you have it. Some meaningless prop bets to make the game more enjoyable. You can have action from before the kickoff (National Anthem time), up to after the final whistle has blown (Gatorade bath color).

Good luck!!

 

Fantasource

 

Season Record: 25-18. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

Posted in Eagles, Fun Stuff, National Sports, The Degenerate's PicksComments (1)

The Degenerate: Championship Week! – Joe Flacco? Yup, Joe Flacco.

Championship week! Two great matchups, and some storylines are already being prepared for the Super Bowl:

  • Pats v. Giants? – this is the Revenge for 2008, when the Giants knocked off the undefeated Patriots
  • Ravens v. 49ers? – Harbaugh Bowl! They met on Thanksgiving night and it was a tight 16-6 Ravens win.
  • Pats v. 49ers? – Brady playing his hometown team trying. East Coat/West Coast.
  • Giants v. Ravens? – Um… a rematch of a boring Super Bowl 10 years ago where I lost money betting on the Giants +3

And you know the media is salivating for the Pats/Giants. That David Tyree catch will be replayed ad nauseum, we’ll hear about how the Giants pulled the biggest upset in NFL history. Hearing the hype for matchup will kill me for 2 weeks. I hate the Giants. I hate the Patriots. And I might have to go on a sports blackout for 2 weeks if that happens.

I felt the same way as Aaron Rogers on Sunday.

Last weekend we really took it on the chin. I was all over the Packers -7′, even putting Aaron Rogers in my ‘Most Passing Yards’ prop bet. Well, if you watched the game you know what happened. It was pretty much the worst scenario possible. Not only did the Packers get their heads kicked in, they got beat by the Giants. If there is one team I hate above all others, it’s the Giants. Eli Manning? Please. This guy is in my nightmares. That Hail Mary pass at the end of the first half? Seriously? At that point I knew it was over. You just can’t recover from being down 10 points at half when you are laying 7′. The loss dropped us to 24-18 on the season. We’re still above .500, and we’ve hit 8 out of our last 10 picks. So despite the loss last week it’s been a good run at the end of the season.

Anyway, let’s move onto the games this week. I do like the 49ers to win and cover the 2.5 points, but I’m not going against Eli again (did I just write that?). I see better value in the Patriots/Ravens game, and there are some props that look interesting. So here we go…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “Seriously? Joe Flacco on the road?” pick) Baltimore Ravens +7 over New England Patriots

Hi, I’m Fantasource. You may know me from such gems like this one from Week 15, “You have to respect [Tom Brady’s] record. He wins, and he has been doing it for 10 years.

You might also remember me from proclamations like this from Week 12, “I said I’d never put my money on Joe Flaccid. But in this one, I’m putting my money on Joe Flaccid (but never again, I swear)“.

Flacco with the 'D-Day from Animal House' look

But this week I’m throwing emotions out the window, and going completely against everything I’ve said in the past (hey, it’s campaign season, I’m not the only one breaking promises). I’m betting on the team who I think not only has a chance to win, but is also getting 7 points, the Baltimore Ravens.

When you talk about the Patriots everyone talks about the offense, and yes, they are pretty potent. They have the best pair of tight ends since the Barbi Twins (80’s reference). Their QB is in the prime of his Hall of Fame career, their coach is a emotionless, robot who dresses like a homeless person. And all they do is win, win, win.

But the Patriots have a dirty little secret, their defense stinks. They’re ranked 30th at Footballoutsiders.com in defensive efficiency, 28th v. Pass, 28th v. Rush. Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Joe Flacco will turn into Joe Montana this week, but I think he can put up decent numbers. They’ll use Ray Rice and sometimes Ricky Williams (yup, that Ricky Williams) to move the ball and keep the Patriots offense off the field.

Last week vs. Denver was not even close to the matchup the Patriots will see this week when they play the Ravens. Denver has a bad offense, no matter how many come from behind wins they pull out of their butts, that Broncos offense is bad. Tim Tebow is not a good QB. Let’s put away the hype and do some #RealTalk for a second, when you can’t move the ball against the Patriots, there is something wrong with you.

The quarterback must go down, and he must go down hard.

The Ravens should be able to move the ball. I’m not saying that they will put up 40 points, but I think they can control the ball with a combination of rushing and short passes. Ray Rice should be able to get 100 yards this week (we have a prop play on that down below). If he can do that, and Flacco can limit turnovers and bad throws, the Ravens have a chance to pull the upset.

Tom Brady and the Patriots offense are playing well, you can’t argue with that. They’ve put up 37+ points in 8 of the past 9 weeks. They rolled over Denver last week in a very impressive display of passing, Gronkowski and Brady had that game locked up by halftime. But Denver was #24 v. the pass, so you had to see that coming.

But now in come the Ravens. They have the #1 defense in the NFL, #1 v. pass and #7 v. run. They shut down TJ Yates last week (I know, that’s not saying much). The Pats schedule seems pretty light, and their losses have been to good teams. They lost to both the Giants (at home) and the Steelers (in Pittsburgh). Baltimore beat the Steelers twice this season,

I think the Ravens defense will try to pressure Brady and hit him hard every chance they get. That’s the formula that teams have used to beat the Pats. Knock Brady around, let him know you’re there and keep coming back for more. There is also a rumor going around that the Ravens are offering $50k to the guy who knocks out Brady. Who knows if it’s true, but it wouldn’t surprise me to hear Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were scheming something like that.

https://twitter.com/phillygodfather

I see this as a tight game. The total is 50.5, I would lean UNDER but I’m not giving a play on that, I’m going with the Ravens plus points. Right now the line is Patriots -7, I see that line going up to -7’ by gametime. So if you wait long enough, when the public money comes in on the Pats you could see a 7’, that’s when you grab it.

The line opened at -9 and the sharps came in early in the week, bet the Ravens and pounded this line down to -7.  I expect Patriots money to come in at -7,  hopefully the line will move up for us and we can get -7’. If I don’t see 7’ then I’ll be buying a half point and getting it myself (at higher juice).

Let’s say Flacco is good enough not to lose, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed shut down the high-powered Patriots offense and the Ravens hang in there. Ravens lose, but they cover? I can see that. Patriots 24-23.

The Line: Patriots -7 over Ravens
The Pick: Ravens +7
Game Trends (via Covers.com): New England: 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite. Baltimore: 5-1-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

Championship Week Props

I looked over some props at Sportsbook.com, and not just “Most rushing yards”, etc., these individual props can offer some value if you look hard enough, and here’s what I like this week:

Ravens vs Patriots – Shortest Touchdown of the Game
Shortest TD: over 1.5 yards (-105), under 1.5 yards (-125)

I really like the ‘OVER 1.5 yards’. The only way you’ll lose if someone scores a TD from the 1 yard line. I’ll take my chances that it won’t happen.

Ray Rice (Ravens) Total Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards: over 87.5 yards (-115); under 87.5 yards (-115)

I’m going OVER. 87.5 yards? Ray could get that by halftime. I gotta think the Ravens will use him alot. They aren’t letting Flacco throw it 40 times, so Ray should be able to get 88 yards no problem. Patriots are 28th vs. the rush. McGahee got 76 yards last week in a blowout, so Rice should get 88 yards. Rice only got 60 yards last week, but the Texans had the #6 rush defense.

Tom Brady (Patriots) Total Completions
Completions: over 25.5 (-115), under 25.5 (-115)

I like UNDER 25.5. Brady had a HUGE week last week vs. Denver and only had 26 completions vs. 24th ranked pass defense. Now he goes against the #1 pass defense. I’ll take the UNDER.

Good luck!!

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 24-18. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments


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The Degenerate: Divisional Round Pick – The Packers? Rodger That.

Well, there goes one weekend of playoffs in the books, and boy was it was memorable. If you didn’t pay attention you would have thought Tim Tebow and the Broncos played the only game last weekend. Sure, that was a nice win by the Broncos as 9.5 point underdogs and I’m sure some people made nice money on the Broncos moneyline (+300), but there were a few other games on the slate. The Giants knocked off the hapless Falcons, the Saints won a shootout in the dome against the Lions, and then there were the Texans.

I salute you, JJ Watt.

Our pick last weekend was the Texans -3 at home over the Bengals. The game pretty much played out just as I wrote it up, Houston used Arian Foster and the running game along with Andre Johnson to get some scores, and they shut down the Bengals on defense for an easy 31-10 win as 3 point favorites.

You might say that the pick six by defensive tackle JJ Watt at the end of the first half was lucky, but was it really? Houston had a much better defense and it was just a matter of time before Bengals rookie QB Andy Dalton folded under pressure on the road. And fortunately for us, it happened at the perfect time. What should have been a 10-10 tie at half quickly turned into 17-10 Texans, and from there is was all over.

We’ll take the win, it moved us to 24-17 on the season, and a whopping 8-1 in our last 9 picks. It’s been a nice run, so let’s keep it up. Here we go with the Round 2 pick…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “OK, I can definitely cheer against the Giants” pick)
Green Bay Packers -7.5 over New York Giants

The old saying goes ‘perception is reality’, and whether you agree with it or not perception is going to play into our favor this weekend.

ELI!!!

Giants fans are feeling pretty good this week.

Everyone watched the Giants beat up on the Falcons last weekend and come away with a nice 24-2 win. And as a result, the public is all over the Giants (like white on rice). The line opened at Green Bay -9 and is currently at Green Bay -7.5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it dropped to Green Bay -7 by kickoff. Everyone is betting on Big Blue. And the local media is driving the badwagon. The Newark Star-Ledger is screaming “New York Giants football is back!”

Yes, the Giants won. Yes, their defense looked pretty good. But the Falcons put up one of the ugliest performances in playoff history, failing on two 4th-and-inches plays, getting only 247 yards of total offense, and after missing that second one it seemed like they just gave up. The Giants played well, but the public is acting like they beat the 1985 Bears. Relax, it was only the Falcons (who played like crap), but this week the Giants will get a wakeup call when they visit Lambeau Field.

Green Bay has the best offense in the NFL. There, I said it. Maybe you can argue the Saints are better, or the Patriots, but for my money it’s the Packers. And getting them at home, off a bye week, playing a team in it’s 4th straight ‘must win’ game is a good spot to bet on.

The Giants have been fighting for their lives ever since they lost to the Redskins (for the 2nd time this season, I might add) in Week 15. Week 16 they had a ‘win or go home’ against the Jets, they won. Week 17 it was ‘winner takes all’ vs. Dallas, the Giants won that one too. Last week it was the wildcard game, and the Giants stepped up and beat a ‘not playoff ready’ Falcons team. This week is a major step up in class.

Hopefully we see alot of Lambeau Leaps on Sunday

You’re probably already sick of hearing how this Giants team is just like the Giants team in 2007-08. You know, the one that got hot at the end of the regular season, beat the Packers in Lambeau to win the NFC and then pull the mother of all upsets over the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl. As they like to say on the internet, cool story bro. But it ain’t happening again.

The Packers are rested, they are 15-1, they are undefeated at home, 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 7-1 ATS at home this season. And how about this list of points scored by the Packers at Lambeau this season (reverse from Week 17): 45/35/46/35/45/24/49/42. Wow.

The Giants come in with the #8 offense, #3 passing, #20 rushing and to be fair, that rushing rank included weeks where Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were hurt, so they are a little better than that. So there is some firepower there, and the Packers defense isn’t great but has played well at home, and I think this will be more of an ‘outscore the Giants’ than a ‘shut down Eli’ type of game.

There is an added layer of emotion on the Packers bench this weekend. Michael Philbin, son of Packers Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin was found dead this week after drowning in a lake. He was 21. Joe Philbin will not be at the game this weekend, but I don’t expect that to impact the Packers at all. I see this as a rallying point for the Packers to win the game so somehow they can turn a tragedy into something positive for their coach. I don’t see Aaron Rogers letting up this weekend, it could be a huge game for #12.

How about the Giants hang in the game for a while but fail to stay in a track meet with the Packers at Lambeau. Green Bay wins it 37-20.

The Line: Green Bay -7.5, O/U 52
The Pick: Green Bay -7.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Green Bay: 8-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. New York: 4-12 last 16 games on grass.

Divisional Round Props

Here are some props to chew on. Last week I gave out a winner with Arian Foster getting most rushing yards. If you took Arian Foster +450 and Andre Johnson +700 like I wrote you would end up with a nice +250 profit. Props are fun to play, but for small wagers. No need to get carried away.

Highest Scoring Team
San Francisco 49ers (+1200)
Denver Broncos (+2500)
New York Giants (+1500)
Green Bay Packers (+160)
New England Patriots (+150)
Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
New Orleans Saints (+350)
Houston Texans (+3000)

First choice has to be the Patriots, but at +150 it’s not worth the money. Same with the Packers at +160. No real value in these, I don’t see any other team really rolling up points. If you think Eli can pull the upset, then maybe the Giants at +1500 looks tempting, but I’ll pass.

Most Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) (+350)
Alex Smith (49ers) (+1200)
Drew Brees (Saints) (+130)
Eli Manning (Giants) (+450)
Joe Flacco (Ravens) (+800)
Tj Yates (Texans) (+2000)
Tim Tebow (Broncos) (+2000)
Tom Brady (Patriots) (+250)

I’m going with Aaron Rodgers at +350. You read what I wrote above, I think Aaron Rodgers will have a huge game. Not only is he capable of throwing 400 yards, this could be the week he makes it a priority to rack up yards. And at +350? I’ll take it.

How about Tebow at +2000? Wow. That shows you how much faith Vegas has in his arm, he’s coming off a 316 yard game last week and now going against the worst pass defense in NFL history, no respect.

Most Rushing Yards
Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants) (+650)
Arian Foster (Texans) (+350)
Benjarvus Green-Ellis (Patriots) (+2000)
Chris Ivory (Saints) (+650)
Frank Gore (49ers) (+350)
Ray Rice (Ravens) (+200)
Ryan Grant (Packers) (+1000)
Willis Mcgahee (Broncos) (+350)

I would love to say Arian Foster again at +350. But Baltimore has the #7 rush defense, so I have to pass on him. No real value here.

Most Receiving Yards
Andre Johnson (Texans) (+800)
Anquan Boldin (Ravens) (+1500)
Demaryius Thomas (Broncos) (+600)
Hakeem Nicks (Giants) (+450)
Jermichael Finley (Packers) (+1500)
Jordy Nelson (Packers) (+450)
Marques Colston (Saints) (+300)
Michael Crabtree (49ers) (+1000)
Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) (+1000)
Vernon Davis (49ers) (+2000)
Victor Cruz (Giants) (+300)
Wes Welker (Patriots) (+600)

This is a tough one, no real favorite in this either, no stud WR waiting to get yards against a bad pass defense. Throw out Andre Johnson, Boldin and Colston as they are facing solid pass defenses. If you are looking for a play maybe Hakeem Nicks at +450. I think the Giants will be playing from behind and Eli will be tossing it all day. Between Cruz (+300) and Nicks (+450), I’ll take Nicks. But I’m passing on this one.

So for props, the only one I’ll go with is Aaron Rodgers for Most Passing Yards at +450. It’s going to be a Packers weekend. Bet the game, bet the prop, pop a few cold ones, and enjoy the game.

Oh, and I just wrote 1300 words and didn’t mention the Eagles or Andy Reid once. You’re welcome.

…and before I let you go, I LOVE this Sixers song. #ShowYaLuv

Fantasource

 

 

 

2011 Regular Season + Playoffs Record: 24-17.

You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

 

Posted in Eagles, Fun Stuff, National Sports, The Degenerate's PicksComments (0)

The Degenerate: The Wildcard Weekend Pick – It’s TJ Time!

Playoffs! Here we go, the road to Indianapolis. And it all starts with Wildcard weekend. Yeah, it sucks that the Eagles aren’t playing but I’ve already gone through the five stages of grief…

  1. #ALLIN

    Denial — “No way. We’re 2-4? Yeah, but we can still get back in it. This isn’t over.” See my Week 7 post.

  2. Anger — “Fire Andy, Fire Juan, this team sucks. Blow it up.”
  3. Bargaining — “I don’t care, just make the playoffs. Even at 8-8 it’s better than nothing.”
  4. Depression — “I can’t believe we just lost to the Cardinals and the Seahawks. WTF?”
  5. Acceptance — “We really weren’t good enough, and it’s all about next year anyway. We’re built to win it all in 2012.”

I’ve ridden the roller-coaster this season with everyone else. And now I’ve put it all in the past. Andy is coming back (#TEAMANDY). But Juan? Not so sure yet. But who cares. It’s time to focus on the post-season and make some money (I don’t know why I wrote that, this is for amusement purposes only).

We ended the regular season at 23-17 (57.5%) with our picks. Not too bad. We had two rough patches, five straight losses from Week 8 to Week 10 (ouch), and 0-3 in Week 13 (unlucky 13, a.k.a Seahawks week) but overall it was a decent season, and I had fun doing it. Our 9-4 record on Monday Nights was nice.

Wildcard Bet #1: (a.k.a the “Hey look, Andre Johnson is back” bet): Houston Texans -3 over Cincinnati Bengals

I know, I know… TJ Yates. I’ve written before that “TJ Yates is not a big game QB” but this is more about his weapons than about TJ Yates himself. And yes, it’s a big game, but c’mon, it’s a home game against the Bengals.

Could be a big week for Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson is back this week for the Texans and when he is on his game Andre Johnson is the best WR in football. And all indications are that he is 100% and ready to go. That is a huge addition for the Texans. They are going up against the Bengals and these teams already met back in Week 14 at Cincy and the Texans (led by TJ Yates) beat the Bengals 20-19.

Cincinnati is coming in at 3-5 in their last 8 games, and those 3 wins? St Louis, Arizona and Cleveland. The Bengals backed into the playoffs, losing to the Ravens in Week 17 but getting in only because the Jets and Broncos also lost. Cincinnati is 0-7 vs. playoff teams (Steelers, Ravens, Texans, 49ers, Broncos).

Bengals come in with the 17th ranked defense (18th vs. pass, 16th vs. rush), so the Texans should be able to move the ball with a combination of Andre Johnson and Arian Foster. Yeah, TJ Yates is the wildcard, but on the other side of the ball do you think rookie Andy Dalton is that much better? Dalton is battling the flu this week, but he should play.

Texans offense has struggled since Matt Schaub went down but remember that Andre Johnson was also hurt for most of the season. He comes back this week and I think that is the difference. Add in Arian Foster’s running and I think the Texans have enough on offense to get it done.

The Bengals offense is led by a rookie QB, throwing to a rookie WR (AJ Green) and Houstons defense is actually pretty good, 8th overall (7th vs. rush, 6th vs. pass). So the Texans should be able to control the Bengals and Houstons top DB Jonathan Joseph is healthy this week and should be able to neutralize AJ Green.

Andy Dalton has struggled in his last seven games, 54% completion rate, only eight TD’s and eight interceptions. And now he has to go on the road, into a loud stadium and improve his game against a pretty good pass defense. Ok, good luck with that.

I am aware that the Texans are riding a 3 game losing streak, with a loss to the Colts thrown in there. But they should be ready at home to win their first playoff game in franchise history this weekend.

How about Andre Johnson makes a big splash in his return, the Bengals get shut down on offense and the Texans move onto the 2nd round (where they will probably lose). I’ll say Houston wins 27-10.

The Line: Texans -3 O/U 38
The Pick: Texans -3
Game trends (via Covers.com): Texans 7-3-1 last 10 as home favorite, Bengals 6-1-2 ATS last 9 on the road.

Here are some prop bets to consider for the weekend:

Team To Score Most Points On Wild Card Weekend
Cincinnati Bengals +2000
Denver Broncos +4000
Atlanta Falcons +400
New York Giants +200
Detroit Lions +250
New Orleans Saints -200
Pittsburgh Steelers +700
Houston Texans +1200

Gotta be the Saints right? But no value in -200. If I was taking a longshot maybe the Steelers at +700?

Most Passing Yards On Wild Card Weekend
Andy Dalton (Bengals) +1500
Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) +900
Drew Brees (Saints) Ev
Eli Manning (Giants) +350
Matt Ryan (Falcons) +600
Matthew Stafford (Lions) +150
TJ Yates (Texans) +1200
Tim Tebow (Broncos) +2500

Throw out Tebow, he may not break 100 yards passing, and there is no value with Brees or Stafford. I might take a shot with Matt Ryan at +600. He’s going to have to throw alot and he has the weapons.

Most Rushing Yards On Wild Card Weekend
Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants) +550
Arian Foster (Texans) +450
Cedric Benson (Bengals) +450
Chris Ivory (Saints) +600
Isaac Redman (Steelers) +450
Kevin Smith (Lions) +900
Michael Turner (Falcons) +250
Willis Mcgahee (Broncos) +250

I like Arian Foster at +450. I think the Texans mix it up this weekend and they will use Foster more when they need to sit on a late lead.

Most Receiving Yards On Wild Card Weekend
Aj Green (Bengals) +500
Andre Johnson (Texans) +700
Calvin Johnson (Lions) +200
Demaryius Thomas (Broncos) +1000
Hakeen Nicks (Giants) +500
Julio Jones (Falcons) +700
Marques Colston (Saints) +700
Mike Wallace (Steelers) +700
Roddy White (Falcons) +275
Victor Cruz (Giants) +275

I like Matt Ryan for most passing yards and I think Julio Jones at +700 is a good value for most receiving yards. Jones has speed and he is coming off a huge week last week. The Giants will probably key on Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez so maybe Jones can do it. As for another longshot, Andre Johnson is +700? If he is on his game he could be worth a shot.

Maybe a mix of Arian Foster (+450) for most rushing yards and Andre Johnson (+700) for Most Passing Yards could put you in a nice spot to cash one of the bets.

Good luck this weekend.

Sixers home opener tonight!! #ShowYaLuv

Fantasource

 

 

 

Regular Season Final Record: 23-17. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

Posted in Fun Stuff, National Sports, The Degenerate's PicksComments (1)

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