Tag Archive | "Giants"

Time’s Yours Podcast: Chip Kelly’s Undoing (Or Is It Tebow Time?)

Time's Yours

THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE FUN!

Spike and Lee discuss why in the world Michael Vick was playing, Chip Kelly’s questionable decisions, Vick sitting on the bench, and how long it will be until Eagles fans demand Jon Gruden.

Also, the return of Chris Johnson!

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin

Follow Lee on Twitter @LeeRussakoff

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisJohnsonJr

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Time’s Yours Podcast: Eagles Win, FREEZE THE KICKER!

The Eagles have won three games by a total of four points.

Efficiency baby.

We’re talking about freezing the kicker, interception free Michael Vick, Twitter ruining Eagles games, Andy Reid, LeSean McCoy, is Nnamdi not good, DRC’s dumb decision and at the very end, Brian Dawkins.

Subscribe to the Time’s Yours podcast by clicking here. DO IT!

Follow Lee on Twitter @LeeRussakoff.

Follow Chris on Twitter @chrisjohnsonjr.

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The Degenerate: Opening Night Pick; We’re baaaaack…

Ohai, welcome back. Have a seat. Can I get you a glass of Courvoisier?

Have a seat, let’s talk about the Giants/Cowboys game.

Here we are, back for another season of ‘The Degenerate‘, your favorite weekly NFL picks column. We had a good run last year (but we lost our Super Bowl pick, booo!). I had alot of fun writing the column and I’m back to do it again, so I’ll try to keep it entertaining and maybe help you all  make some money while we’re at it (but this is for amusement purposes only, of course).

To say that I’m happy that NFL football is back is an understatement. I mean the Phillies have had a nice run lately, but this was a brutal season overall. And now they are teasing us, making us think “well, they could still get that the 2nd wildcard”, but we all know it’s not happening (just kidding, it’s totally happening, and I’m all in until October 1st). Red means Go.

I know you have all been wondering, “Hey Fantasource, what have you been up to since we last talked?” Well, I‘m glad you asked. I did a few fun things this summer… but the most fun was heading up to the horse races in Saratoga (it rained, but we had a cooler full of pounders and we won a little money. All good.)


And oh yeah, I bet Paul Ryan at +1500 to win the VP nomination. A Jackson got me $300, so that was kinda cool. #TeamEddieMunster

Romney/Ryan… already stimulating the economy.

If you followed along last year you know that we had a very nice run with our NFL picks here at The Degenerate. We ended the season at 57% against the spread (not bad) and the Monday Night picks were smoking hot at 69% (9-4). You can see all of the 2011 picks documented here). I’d like to think there was some skill involved, like I didn’t just flip a coin and hope for the best (at least not most weeks). And I’m looking forward to doing it again.

But enough about the past. Let’s talk about the future. Like the immediate future. Tonight! Cowboys! Giants! NFL 2012-13 kickoff.

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “If we lose we’ll just blame the replacement refs” bet): NY Giants -3.5 OVER Dallas Cowboys

The NFL season starts on a Wednesday night this year. Yeah, kinda weird, but the Democrats are having their convention this week so the NFL moved the game from Thursday as to not interfere with President Obama’s acceptance speech. Good for them. Whatever.

The first week of the NFL season is always a little tough to handicap. You never know what teams will take a step up and be better (like the 49ers last year), and what teams will fall apart (um, I guess that would’ve been the Eagles last year). But in this one, I don’t really expect a much different look from either team compared to last year.

The Giants are coming off of another Super Bowl win (pardon me while I go throw  up). And yeah, as much as I hate the Giants you gotta tip your cap to Eli, 2 rings in 8 seasons. Good work, Peyton’s little brother. But did the Giants get any better from last year? Any worse? They have Eli, a power running game, some very good wide receivers, a killer defensive line, and rosy-cheeked Tom Coughlin. Yup, it’s pretty much same recipe as last year.

ELI!

And on the other hand, there are the Cowboys. It’s the same story for them, too. A crazy owner,  Tony Romo behind center, pretty good RB’s, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin at WR (both formidable players when healthy), and a Rob Ryan defense that can’t seem to stop the Giants from scoring (giving up 37 and 31 points to the Giants last year). Dallas tried to upgrade their defensive backfield in the offseason and if the preseason numbers are any indication, they are an improved bunch. But I think Eli and Cruz will test the rookie Claiboirne, we’ll see if he is up for the task.

I’m going with the Giants -3.5 in this one. Kinda seems like a spot where the Giants buckle down and get a big win. Laying 3.5 points in their home opener against the banged up Cowboys? I like my chances. Jason Witten is a game time decision (spleen), Miles Austin hasn’t played at all this preseason due to hamstring problems, and Dez Bryant is nursing a bum knee (oh yeah, he also slapped him mom in the face a few weeks ago). The Giants d-line should be able to get to Romo (they sacked him 6 times in their 31-17 win in Week 17 ). Unless they get a 200 yard rushing game from DeMarco Murray I just don’t see where the Cowboys offense comes from. And that will be the big difference.

“But what about the replacement refs!?!?!” Yeah, I know the refs will be the big story this weekend, but they’ll be terrible for both teams. And hopefully their bad calls even out and they don’t have an impact on the final score. But I guess time will tell.

“But what about the weather!?!” Yeah, looks like some rain tonight in North Jersey but according to latest forecasts rain shouldn’t impact the game.

How about we say Eli throws a few TD’s, the Giants d-line sacks Romo a bunch of times and the Giants grab a nice division win, 27-17.

The Line: Giants -3.5, O/U 46
The Pick: Giants -3.5
Game trends (via Covers.com): Giants are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Cowboys; OVER is 5-1 last 6 in the series, Last 12 years the Super Bowl champ from the previous season is 8-2-2 ATS in the opening game the next season.

Season Record: 0-0.

Let’s get a winner tonight and come back Friday for the rest of the Week 1 picks, including Eagles / Browns.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Twitter:
Email: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Pick – So, Who Do You Hate Less?

Like Huey Lewis said, “So, this is it.” It’s the last Degenerate column for the 2011-12 NFL season. And you know what, I think this season was pretty successful. Yeah, we had some rough patches (like losing 5 in a row at one point), but we are ending the season on a nice streak, hitting 9 of our last 11 picks. Sweet.

We had a winner in the AFC Championship with the Ravens +7 over the Patriots. Now let’s end the season on a high note with a Super Bowl winner. That would make me happy, and it would put us at 26-18 (59%) on the season. Not too shabby. And as an added bonus, we also solicited Super Bowl picks from some “Friends of SpikeEskin.com”, including meteorologist/sports nut John Bolaris.

Yesterday, I posted my picks in some Super Bowl props, The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Props – Fishnets, Gatorade and Belly Buttonscheck it out here.

The ‘Friends of SpikeEskin.com’ picks:

Spike Eskin – 94WIP, CBS, this site (@SpikeEskin):

Prediction: Giants – (-12) over Patriots (-17)

In the worst Super Bowl of all time, the Giants prevail with a negative score. The refs will discuss for over an hour whether -12 is actually greater than -17. Eli Manning will look like he’s smelling a fart. At least the hoodie will go to sleep sad.

 

Cranekicker from CraneKickChronicles.com (@Cranekicker)

Prediction: Patriots 27 Giants 20

Rationale: I want both teams to lose but I have come to grips with that being impossible. And despite what a local shockjock wrote in a recent column, I cannot root for the Giants. The only time you will catch me cheering for the Giants is when they are fumbling or throwing interceptions.

The truth is, Eli Manning is really good and the Giants run a great organization and I can’t stand it. I’d rather have Boston fans yucking it up from a far than loud mouthed New Yorkers right around the corner professing their love for Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning when really they tried to run both of them out of town. So I lay my hopes with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. This all makes me sick. Thank God for buffalo chicken dip and block pools. Brady with a late TD to Hernandez for the win. Here’s a picture of Andre Tippett.
Andre Tippett

 

Pat Gallen from Phillies Nation and 97.3 ESPN Radio (@PatGallen_PN):

Prediction: Giants 30, Pats 26. It pains me to go this way, but the Giants D is playing really well right now, and the Patriots D isn’t really all that great. Eli wins…dammit

 

John Bolaris (@JohnBolaris):

Prediction: Giants 27, Pats 24. Don’t like Pats D. Giants going in Hot. Eli has been huge this year especially 4th quarter. Brady can still cut u up like a fine surgeon. And what is against the Giants, the pure probability factor that it’s really tough to beat any NFL team twice in the same year especially when you’re dealing with Pats & Brady. That being said Pats defense should be their downfall. JB

 

Meech – the guy who killed The Fightins (@meechone):

Prediction: Giants 30, Pats 24 (OT)

 

CBS3’s Chris May (@chrismayphilly):

Prediction: Patriots 27 Giants 21. Brady’s your MVP.

 

Zoo With Roy (@zoowithroy):

Prediction: YEAH GIRL PUT IT IN THE BANK: Giants 37, Pats 34

 

CSN’s Marshall Harris (@mharrisCSN):

Prediction: I got the Giants 35-31.

 

Philly.com’s Ryan Petzar(@petzrawr):

Prediction: 21-10 Pats.

 

Dan Roche – Daily News Live Producer  (@RochesRWinners):
Some predictions:

Duration of Kelly Clarkson’s National Anthem:

Over 1:34
Under 1:34
Will be delayed until she finishes her sandwich 

Will Clarkson show her midriff?

Yes (1/3)
No (4/1)
My eyes!! My eyes!! √

What will be higher on Super Bowl Sunday?

Patriots points(-115)
LeBron James points vs Raptors (-115)
Drexel University’s campus (no line) 

What will be shown more frequently?
Peyton Manning’s Face
The “Eli Manning Face” 

Oh yeah, the game:

Patriots 27 (-2½) √
Giants 24

 

Kevin Cooney of PhillyBurbs.com (@KevinCooney)

Too many people are taking Eli and Coughlin… I’m going with opposite world. I can’t see Brady and Belichick losing two Super Bowls to the same team. Plus, the Giants won’t be able to cover the two tight ends.

Prediction:Patriots 31, Giants 24


Ok, not that my pick carries any more weight than those above (who am I kidding, this is the only one that matters), but here we go…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “I only watch it for the commercials” pick)
New England Patriots -2½ over New York Giants

My money is on this guy.

In a ‘lesser of two evils’ selection, I’m going with the Patriots.

Picking this game is kind of like choosing between stubbing your toe or banging your funnybone. Neither one is too appealing. On the one hand you have the Patriots. God’s gift to the NFL (or so their fans would make you think), they have a Hall of Fame QB, an evil wizard coach and no defense, yet they are scoring at a record pace and went 15-3. The Pats have 7 Super Bowl appearances and 3 Lombardi Trophy’s. On the other hand you have the Giants. Yeah, no further explanation necessary. I’ve been raised since day 1 to hate strongly dislike the Giants, and it seems like every few years they just go out of their way to rub my face in it. They have 3 Super Bowl titles in 5 appearances. (But I thought we were the Dream Team?)

My outfit on Sunday.

I put my personal biases aside and I looked at this game with a neutral eye. And when I broke it down I just think the Patriots are the better team with the better coach and the better QB. Yeah, their defense stinks, but that isn’t news. The Gronkowski injury is distracting people from the bigger picture, even without Gronk the Patriots have another very good tight end (Aaron Hernadez) and Wes Welker, the receiving corp is going to be fine. Brady is going against the 21st ranked pass defense, he’ll do alright. The Broncos had the 24th ranked pass defense and you saw what he did to them, twice. Two weeks ago they played the Baltimore Ravens (the best defense in the NFL) and they were able to put up 23 points. The Pats running game is pretty good too, 4th ranked overall. BenJarvus Green-Ellis should be able to move the ball against the Giants 19th ranked rush defense. Pats Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien is leaving New England to coach Penn State, so there is some extra motivation (if it was even needed) to send him out a winner.

I expect the Giants to try to take advantage of the New England pass defense, so expect lots of Eli Manning passes, and he has some pretty good weapons to work with. Manningham, Cruz and Nicks. That’s three solid receivers right there. And the Giants running game is decent, Bradshaw and Jacobs should see alot of touches, especially if New York gets an early lead. I’m not saying the Patriots will shut down Eli and the Giants defense, I just think that the Patriots defense will be ready.

I’ll keep it short, here are 3 reasons why I like the Patriots to win and cover on Sunday:

  1. Nah, this isn't gonna happen again.

    This is a revenge game (times two) for New England. Not only did the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII to ruin the Patriots undefeated season, they also went into Foxboro this season in Week 9 and beat New England. After that loss the Patriots went on a 10 game winning streak. Brady isn’t going to forget that Week 9 loss, nor has he forgotten that 2008 Super Bowl upset. He has a chance to right a wrong on the biggest stage of all.

  2. Everyone is betting the Giants. So, naturally I have to look to the other side. The early money came in on the Giants, which makes sense. The early bettors grabbed the Giants at +3½ and the line dropped to +3. And even more  money came in on the Giants, forcing the line to drop further to 2½ on Friday morning. And laying 2½ is where you bang the Patriots. From Covers.com: “The majority of the early money, both sharp and square, has been on the Giants. CNBC’s Darren Rovell tweeted that 80 percent of the max $25,000 bets at the offshore sportsbook BetOnline.com were on the Giants”.
  3. The Patriots are the better team. Yes, everyone says “the defense stinks”, “Eli is gonna light them up”. Well, they’ve had the same terrible defense all season, and they’re 15-3. They average 32 points per game, and they only give up 20 points. Compare that to the Giants. New York scores 25 and gives up 23. So, shouldn’t we be saying the Giants defense stinks? I don’t know, this seems like a pretty even matchup and if I’m laying down my money on either Eli or Brady, I’ll take Brady.

I’ll say, the Patriots get their revenge in front of an enormous TV audience, in the most anticipated Super Bowl in recent memory, in Peyton Manning’s living room. Brady and the Patriots win, 27-20.

The Line: New England -2½, O/U 54
The Pick: New England -2½
Game Trends (via Covers.com): New England: 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games. New York: 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.

Thanks for reading the NFL picks column all year, good luck!!

(Yes, I’ll be back with some other stuff, March Madness, baseball, NBA playoffs, etc.)

Fantasource

Season Record: 25-18. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

Posted in Fun Stuff, National Sports, The Degenerate's PicksComments (2)

The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Props – Fishnets, Gatorade and Belly Buttons.

Well, it’s finally here. The Super Bowl.

Back in August when all of us Eagles fans were looking ahead to the season I’m sure alot of us pictured the Eagles playing this week. Well, we all know what happened. Not quite a Super Bowl run, but an interesting season nonetheless. Andy is coming back, Juan is coming back, pretty much the same story next year, let’s hope we have more success. But enough about the Birds, it’s Super Bowl week.

We’re going to approach the Super Bowl in two installments here at SpikeEskin.com. Today, we’ll take a look at prop bets. Prop bets are those crazy bets that you hear people talking about on TV and radio, pretty much any scenario you want to bet on is available.  They make for interesting conversation, and keep people talking during the leadup to the game when nothing else is happening.

Some are pretty basic football bets, “How many passing attempts for Tom Brady?”, “How many completions for Eli Manning?”. But the ‘wacky’ prop bets are the ones that get most of the attention, bets like “Who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first in his postgame interview?”, “How many times will they show Robert Kraft on camera”, stuff like that. I don’t know if there is any real way to handicap some of these, but I’ll break a few down and give out my picks.

So, today it’s the prop bets and tomorrow will be the picks. I’ll make a pick in the game (as usual), but I’m pretty excited to say that we’ll also have Super Bowl picks from some of our favorite folks in the internet world (Twitter legends, bloggers, local celebs, etc.). Spike hasn’t unvelied the complete list to me, but some of the early names look interesting. That should be a fun read tomorrow.

I found these props and their odds from Sportsbook.com, but these props and many, many others are available at almost all online sports books (and in the Vegas casinos, as well). Even my local guy offers a long list of props to pick from. I included a PDF from Sportsbook.com if you want to print some out and bring them to your Super Bowl party (for amusement purposes only, of course).

Last year a buddy of mine had Jordy Nelson to score the first TD at 11-1. And yeah, when Nelson broke that TD and scored, it was cha-ching for him. Nice payday and it was still the first quarter. These payouts aren’t as high paying, but they will be fun to track, so let’s get to it…

1) What will be higher Eli Manning Completions (+120) or Lebron James Points (-150)

Yup, you can bet on LeBron in a Super Bowl prop

Before you decide on this wager you need to put a number on both options. Eli’s completions? Flacco went 22-36 for 306 yards vs. the Patriots 2 weeks ago, so you can use that as a starting point. So, you have to think Eli will do something similar, his over/under for completions is 24.5 with more juice on the Over, so Vegas thinks around 25/26. So how about we say 26 total completions for Eli.

LeBron plays the Raptors on Sunday afternoon. That game should be a blow out, and I don’t expect LeBron to play the whole game. But even 3 quarters of LeBron will get you 26+ points. LeBron has been held under 26 points only 4 times this season.

Fantasource says: I’ll take LeBron to have more points. But it could be close. How about Eli completes 26, LeBron scores 30.

2) What will be higher Tom Brady TD Passes (-115) or Bruins Total Goals (-115)

How many TD’s do you think Tom Brady will throw? I’ll say 3. That’s just a guess. I know for sure that he won’t throw 6 like he did against the Broncos. And the Bruins goals? They’re leading the NHL in goals per game (3.5), and they play the Capitals who give up 2.8 goals per game. So let’s say 3+ goals for the Bruins.

Fantasource says: I’ll take the Bruins Total Goals to be higher. It’s gonna be tough for Brady to get more than 3 TD’s. I’ll wager that the Bruins have a decent chance at 4+ goals.

3) How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem? From first note starts until she completes saying “Brave”.

Over 1 minute 34 Seconds (-120)
Under 1 minute 34 Seconds (-120)

Are we gonna see that belly?

This one is so dumb that you have to love it. And you know what, someone actually did alot of research on this. So here’s all you ever wanted to know, and then some, about the National Anthem prop bet from BeyondTheBets.com. “Super Bowl National Anthem: Will Clarkson’s rendition fall short of 1:34 over/under?”

Fantasource says: BeyondTheBets says Under. But Covers.com says they like the Over. And I say… Under. BeyondTheBets.com makes a more compelling case than Covers.com. But really, if you’re betting this you might have a problem (but that is probably true for most of these prop bets).

4) Will Kelly Clarkson’s bare belly be showing when she sings the National Anthem?

Yes +300

For this one I consulted my pop-culture expert, Mrs. Fantasource. Her analysis was this, “Well, if she shows her belly it won’t be on purpose. She’s a little chunky.”

Fantasource says: Actually Mrs. Fantasource says: “No, at least not on purpose.” So, no bet on this one for me.

5) Will Madonna be wearing fishnet stockings at any point during the Super Bowl Halftime show?

Yes -120
No -120

As much as this might be a “who the hell knows?” type of bet, there is some recent history to go back on. In the past month Madonna has been photographed a few times, most times she is wearing fishnets. I guess the Material Girl is trying fishnets as party of her new look. WagerMinds.com did some research as well and came to the conclusion that ‘Yes’ is a good bet. So believe it or not, I’m saying bet ‘Yes’ on this one.

Fantasource says: Bet Yes. Fishnets are in this season, at least for Madonna, and she will wear them proudly.

6) How many times will David Tyree’s 2008 Super Bowl catch be shown be shown on TV during the game? From kick off until final whistle. Half-time does not count towards wager.

Over 1 (-160)
Under 1 (+120)

You gotta go OVER. No doubt. You have to expect it’s coming at least once, and at that point you’ll have a push. Will it happen twice? Unlikely, but you never know. If it’s late and the game is tight, or if there is a crazy catch by a Giants WR they may show it again.

Fantasource says: Bet OVER. At the very least you should get a push.

7) Which region will have the higher local TV Rating?
Boston -7 (-120)
New York +7 (-120)

I don’t know much about TV ratings, but I know the Bostonians love to watch their Pats. When these teams played in Super Bowl XLII the Giants got crushed in the ratings. Boston came in with a 55.6 local rating, New York got 44.9 local. Why would this year be any different? I think it might even be a higher difference.

Fantasource says: Lay the 7 ratings points (or whatever they’re called) and cash in. Boston is the solid play here. If there was a ‘best bet’, this would be it.

8 ) Longest Completion – Eli Manning (NYG) Over/Under 45½ yards
Over -130
Under EVEN

Fishnets!

I’m going on a hunch here and saying that Eli will be able to find one of his WR’s for a long gain. The Patriots pass defense is not good. I mean, Tebow even got a 41 yard pass in, and he played terrible. Eli got a 66 yard pass against the Packers and 36 yarder against a tough 49ers defense. A combination of a talented Giants receiving corp and a bad Patriots defense makes me say over is a Over.

Fantasource says: I like the OVER 45½ yards. I think Eli will test the Pats pass defense, and Eli’s WR’s have the speed and talent to break a long one.

9) What Color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?

Clear/Water – 2/1
Yellow – 2/1
Orange – 9/4
Red – 11/2
Green – 6/1
Blue – 10/1

Fantasource says: Clear/Water is the choice here, and at 2/1 it’s a nice bet. Bill Belicheck has been doused with only water in his Patriots coaching career. And when the Giants won in 2008, yup, Coughlin got a water bath (see the image at the top). Go with ‘Clear/Water’ and meet me at the cash window for your 2/1 payout.

10) What will be higher, Hakeem Nicks Receptions (-115) OR Total Goals in the Flyers/Rangers game (-115)?

Flyers fans, this one is for you. The Over/Under for Hakeem Nick receptions is 5½, and the juice is on the UNDER. So Vegas is thinking 5 or fewer receptions. But I expect Eli to be tossing all day, and Nicks is one of his main targets. Flyers/Rangers total goals? These teams have played 3 times this season, with total goals of 2,6, and 5. The Rangers are only giving up 2.0 goals per game, and scoring 2.8. The Flyers are scoring 3.3, and surrendering 2.9. We can put the total goals at a max of 6 and hope Hakeem Nicks is Eli’s main target. I like Nicks here.

Fantasource says:  Flyers/Rangers should be low scoring, and Eli should be tossing it all day. I like Nicks’ Receptions to be higher.

So there you have it. Some meaningless prop bets to make the game more enjoyable. You can have action from before the kickoff (National Anthem time), up to after the final whistle has blown (Gatorade bath color).

Good luck!!

 

Fantasource

 

Season Record: 25-18. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

Posted in Eagles, Fun Stuff, National Sports, The Degenerate's PicksComments (1)

I’m Rooting For The Giants In The Super Bowl

I decided to root for the Giants in the Super Bowl instead of the Patriots.

I wrote a piece for CBS Philly about it, and you can read it HERE.

Posted in EaglesComments (1)

The Degenerate: Divisional Round Pick – The Packers? Rodger That.

Well, there goes one weekend of playoffs in the books, and boy was it was memorable. If you didn’t pay attention you would have thought Tim Tebow and the Broncos played the only game last weekend. Sure, that was a nice win by the Broncos as 9.5 point underdogs and I’m sure some people made nice money on the Broncos moneyline (+300), but there were a few other games on the slate. The Giants knocked off the hapless Falcons, the Saints won a shootout in the dome against the Lions, and then there were the Texans.

I salute you, JJ Watt.

Our pick last weekend was the Texans -3 at home over the Bengals. The game pretty much played out just as I wrote it up, Houston used Arian Foster and the running game along with Andre Johnson to get some scores, and they shut down the Bengals on defense for an easy 31-10 win as 3 point favorites.

You might say that the pick six by defensive tackle JJ Watt at the end of the first half was lucky, but was it really? Houston had a much better defense and it was just a matter of time before Bengals rookie QB Andy Dalton folded under pressure on the road. And fortunately for us, it happened at the perfect time. What should have been a 10-10 tie at half quickly turned into 17-10 Texans, and from there is was all over.

We’ll take the win, it moved us to 24-17 on the season, and a whopping 8-1 in our last 9 picks. It’s been a nice run, so let’s keep it up. Here we go with the Round 2 pick…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “OK, I can definitely cheer against the Giants” pick)
Green Bay Packers -7.5 over New York Giants

The old saying goes ‘perception is reality’, and whether you agree with it or not perception is going to play into our favor this weekend.

ELI!!!

Giants fans are feeling pretty good this week.

Everyone watched the Giants beat up on the Falcons last weekend and come away with a nice 24-2 win. And as a result, the public is all over the Giants (like white on rice). The line opened at Green Bay -9 and is currently at Green Bay -7.5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it dropped to Green Bay -7 by kickoff. Everyone is betting on Big Blue. And the local media is driving the badwagon. The Newark Star-Ledger is screaming “New York Giants football is back!”

Yes, the Giants won. Yes, their defense looked pretty good. But the Falcons put up one of the ugliest performances in playoff history, failing on two 4th-and-inches plays, getting only 247 yards of total offense, and after missing that second one it seemed like they just gave up. The Giants played well, but the public is acting like they beat the 1985 Bears. Relax, it was only the Falcons (who played like crap), but this week the Giants will get a wakeup call when they visit Lambeau Field.

Green Bay has the best offense in the NFL. There, I said it. Maybe you can argue the Saints are better, or the Patriots, but for my money it’s the Packers. And getting them at home, off a bye week, playing a team in it’s 4th straight ‘must win’ game is a good spot to bet on.

The Giants have been fighting for their lives ever since they lost to the Redskins (for the 2nd time this season, I might add) in Week 15. Week 16 they had a ‘win or go home’ against the Jets, they won. Week 17 it was ‘winner takes all’ vs. Dallas, the Giants won that one too. Last week it was the wildcard game, and the Giants stepped up and beat a ‘not playoff ready’ Falcons team. This week is a major step up in class.

Hopefully we see alot of Lambeau Leaps on Sunday

You’re probably already sick of hearing how this Giants team is just like the Giants team in 2007-08. You know, the one that got hot at the end of the regular season, beat the Packers in Lambeau to win the NFC and then pull the mother of all upsets over the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl. As they like to say on the internet, cool story bro. But it ain’t happening again.

The Packers are rested, they are 15-1, they are undefeated at home, 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 7-1 ATS at home this season. And how about this list of points scored by the Packers at Lambeau this season (reverse from Week 17): 45/35/46/35/45/24/49/42. Wow.

The Giants come in with the #8 offense, #3 passing, #20 rushing and to be fair, that rushing rank included weeks where Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were hurt, so they are a little better than that. So there is some firepower there, and the Packers defense isn’t great but has played well at home, and I think this will be more of an ‘outscore the Giants’ than a ‘shut down Eli’ type of game.

There is an added layer of emotion on the Packers bench this weekend. Michael Philbin, son of Packers Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin was found dead this week after drowning in a lake. He was 21. Joe Philbin will not be at the game this weekend, but I don’t expect that to impact the Packers at all. I see this as a rallying point for the Packers to win the game so somehow they can turn a tragedy into something positive for their coach. I don’t see Aaron Rogers letting up this weekend, it could be a huge game for #12.

How about the Giants hang in the game for a while but fail to stay in a track meet with the Packers at Lambeau. Green Bay wins it 37-20.

The Line: Green Bay -7.5, O/U 52
The Pick: Green Bay -7.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Green Bay: 8-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. New York: 4-12 last 16 games on grass.

Divisional Round Props

Here are some props to chew on. Last week I gave out a winner with Arian Foster getting most rushing yards. If you took Arian Foster +450 and Andre Johnson +700 like I wrote you would end up with a nice +250 profit. Props are fun to play, but for small wagers. No need to get carried away.

Highest Scoring Team
San Francisco 49ers (+1200)
Denver Broncos (+2500)
New York Giants (+1500)
Green Bay Packers (+160)
New England Patriots (+150)
Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
New Orleans Saints (+350)
Houston Texans (+3000)

First choice has to be the Patriots, but at +150 it’s not worth the money. Same with the Packers at +160. No real value in these, I don’t see any other team really rolling up points. If you think Eli can pull the upset, then maybe the Giants at +1500 looks tempting, but I’ll pass.

Most Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) (+350)
Alex Smith (49ers) (+1200)
Drew Brees (Saints) (+130)
Eli Manning (Giants) (+450)
Joe Flacco (Ravens) (+800)
Tj Yates (Texans) (+2000)
Tim Tebow (Broncos) (+2000)
Tom Brady (Patriots) (+250)

I’m going with Aaron Rodgers at +350. You read what I wrote above, I think Aaron Rodgers will have a huge game. Not only is he capable of throwing 400 yards, this could be the week he makes it a priority to rack up yards. And at +350? I’ll take it.

How about Tebow at +2000? Wow. That shows you how much faith Vegas has in his arm, he’s coming off a 316 yard game last week and now going against the worst pass defense in NFL history, no respect.

Most Rushing Yards
Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants) (+650)
Arian Foster (Texans) (+350)
Benjarvus Green-Ellis (Patriots) (+2000)
Chris Ivory (Saints) (+650)
Frank Gore (49ers) (+350)
Ray Rice (Ravens) (+200)
Ryan Grant (Packers) (+1000)
Willis Mcgahee (Broncos) (+350)

I would love to say Arian Foster again at +350. But Baltimore has the #7 rush defense, so I have to pass on him. No real value here.

Most Receiving Yards
Andre Johnson (Texans) (+800)
Anquan Boldin (Ravens) (+1500)
Demaryius Thomas (Broncos) (+600)
Hakeem Nicks (Giants) (+450)
Jermichael Finley (Packers) (+1500)
Jordy Nelson (Packers) (+450)
Marques Colston (Saints) (+300)
Michael Crabtree (49ers) (+1000)
Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) (+1000)
Vernon Davis (49ers) (+2000)
Victor Cruz (Giants) (+300)
Wes Welker (Patriots) (+600)

This is a tough one, no real favorite in this either, no stud WR waiting to get yards against a bad pass defense. Throw out Andre Johnson, Boldin and Colston as they are facing solid pass defenses. If you are looking for a play maybe Hakeem Nicks at +450. I think the Giants will be playing from behind and Eli will be tossing it all day. Between Cruz (+300) and Nicks (+450), I’ll take Nicks. But I’m passing on this one.

So for props, the only one I’ll go with is Aaron Rodgers for Most Passing Yards at +450. It’s going to be a Packers weekend. Bet the game, bet the prop, pop a few cold ones, and enjoy the game.

Oh, and I just wrote 1300 words and didn’t mention the Eagles or Andy Reid once. You’re welcome.

…and before I let you go, I LOVE this Sixers song. #ShowYaLuv

Fantasource

 

 

 

2011 Regular Season + Playoffs Record: 24-17.

You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

 

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Time’s Yours Podcast: The Eagles, 8-8 For Excellence

Two important things happened with yesterday’s Eagles win over the Dolphins.

First, they started off 1-0 in the “new season” that Asante Samuel claimed started yesterday.

Second, Lee Russakoff realized that he doesn’t want to lose Andy Reid. I couldn’t believe my ears.

We talk about those things, what the real chances are that the Eagles wind up in the playoffs, and whether signing Michael Vick was a good idea.

Follow Lee Russakoff on Twitter @LeeRussakoff

Subscribe to the Time’s Yours podcast on iTunes

Subscribe to the Time’s Yours podcast via MP3 RSS

 

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The Degenerate: Week 12, MNF Pick – Easy Breesy

I’m still in Thanksgiving weekend vacation mode (plus that Eagles debacle really killed my Sunday night), so apologies for the quick post. We went 2-1 on Thursday and 15-12 so far this season, let’s get another winner tonight and close out the week in good fashion.

Monday Night Football: New York Giants at New Orleans Saints

This is homefield advantage

We’ve had a pretty good run on Monday Nights this season, going 6-3 with the picks. And most of those times I went with the favorite, only taking the underdog once (Indy, in a teaser in Week 6). Tonight, the Saints are my pick. Simply because they dominate at home. 4-0 on the season (and 4-0 against the spread). Scoring 40 points per game at home (62 points v. Colts definitely helped pad that stat); and only allowing 17 points. The Saints are tough in the Superdome, excuse me, the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. And coming off a bye week? They’ll be ready.

The Giants are in a tough spot in this one. They’re coming off two straight losses (Eagles and 49ers) and now they continue their death march into New Orleans. This is game four of a six game stretch that everyone thought would doom New York to 2nd place. Tonight is the night that prediction comes true.

A loss tonight will drop the Giants to 6-5 and put them in 2nd place behind the 7-4 Cowboys. On the other side, the 7-3 Saints need a win to stay alone at the top of the NFC South, ahead of the 7-4 Falcons.

I think the Saints will have too much for the Giants in this one. Eli has worked magic before, and he has led his share of 4th quarter comebacks (and ‘almost comebacks’) but tonight I think the Saints will put enough points on the board to put this game away.

Could be another national TV loss for Eli

The Giants are #31 in rushing yards per game. So even if they wanted to slow down the pace and try to kill the clock by keeping the ball on the ground, they couldn’t do it.

Vegas doesn’t think the Giants can slow down the game either. The total on this game is 51 points, the highest total for either team all season. And there’s good reason why. The Saints defense is less than average, 23rd overall (20th v. run; 21st v. pass), so Eli should be able to move the ball in the air. And Brees should be able to move the ball for the Saints, too. The Saints offense is solid. They’re #2 in points per game behind the Packers. #1 passing yards per game, #4 overall offensive efficiency. Surprisingly, they’re averaging 4.6 yards per carry (8th overall). They can move the ball in the air, and on the ground when needed, and they can score. And they should be able to do tonight, even against a good Giants defense.

I’m going with the Saints -7.5 points to knock off the Giants (For amusement purposes only. Why do I keep saying it? You already know).

I think the Saints at home off the bye week coupled with the Giants in the 4th game of a tough stretch, and their 3rd road game in 4 weeks could prove too much. How about Drew Brees airs it out, and moves the Saints to 8-3 with a 34-21 win.

**If you decide to take the Saints, you would be wise to buy points and get this line down to -7, or even -6.5.  Getting onto the other side of a 7 point line is always a smart move. 

The Line: Saints -7.5, O/U 51
The Pick: Saints -7.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): NYG are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.

Cheer up Eagles fans, the Sixers are back! So we got that going for us, which is nice.
Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 15-12. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

 

Posted in Eagles, Fun Stuff, National Sports, The Degenerate's PicksComments (0)

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