Tag Archive | "gambling"

The Degenerate Podcast: NFL Three Team Tease & Super Bowl Odds

The Degenerate

Another three team teaser, another win for Fantasource. His picks came through again last week, and the record on the year for the three teamers so far is 3-1.

We give you another one for this weekend’s NFL action, as well as discuss sharps vs. squares, Halloween candy, and some Super Bowl odds.

As always, it’s for amusement purposes only.

Follow Fantasource (Delco Legend) on Twitter @Fantasource.

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin.

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Subscribe to the podcast via RSS here.

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The Degenerate Podcast: NFL Three Team Tease and NBA Awards Odds

kenny-rogers-retrospective-music-05

We suffered our first three-team teaser loss of the season last week on The Degenerate. But that will not STOP US FROM MARCHING ON.

Fantasource is back with a new, four-Bazaar three team tease for this week’s NFL action. As well, we try to find some value in NBA awards and league-leader odds.

As always, this is for AMUSEMENT PURPOSES ONLY unless you live in an area where sports gambling is legal.

Follow Fantasource (Delco Legend) on Twitter @Fantasource.

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin.

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Subscribe to the podcast via RSS here.

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The Degenerate Podcast: Three Team Tease And NBA Odds

Seelig_David_N_014_Kenny_Rogers_55

Woohoo! We’re 1-0.

The three team teaser that Fantasource gave out on last week’s edition of The Degenerate podcast was a winner (even though this is for amusement purposes only).

In today’s edition, we give out another tease, as well as go over some NBA Championship and division title odds.

Follow Fantasource (Delco Legend) on Twitter @Fantasource.

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin.

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Subscribe to the podcast via RSS here.

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The Degenerate Podcast With Fantasource: The NFL Three Team Tease

kennyrogers kennyrogers

Are you serious?! Another weekly podcast on the Time’s Yours Podcast Network? You’re damn right.

Every week our handicapping expert FANTASOURCE will give you an NFL three-team tease. I will give you some things to tread lightly (!) on, and we’ll touch on anything else big in the world of handicapping.

Remember, this is ALL FOR FUN and it is FREE so take that for what it’s worth.

Follow Fantasource for handicapping advice on Twitter @Fantasource

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes (DO IT! RATE IT)

Subscribe to the podcast on RSS

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The Degenerate: Monday Night Pick: Can I Get A Winner, Please?

Well, I won my fantasy games this weekend. So that’s kinda cool.

Thanks to the defense, we stayed in that game

Ok, so this weekend was not the start I expected to the 2012 gambling season. We started 0-2 and they weren’t even close. I know the Eagles pulled out a 4th quarter shocker and beat the Browns on a last minute drive but they were laying 9.5. So it wasn’t even close to sniffing a cover in the 4th quarter. And the penalties?! Oh lord, the penalties. Hopefully they review the rulebook in practice this week, I’m not sure if our guys know what they can and can’t do.

On the bright side, the Juan Castillo defense really put the screws to Brandon Weeden. But I think if we were playing against a half-decent QB (Colt McCoy?) we probably would have lost that one. But you know what, a win is a win and in Week 13 when we are fighting for the division lead we won’t remember how bad we looked yesterday. Looking forward to week 2 and it doesn’t get any easier, Baldymoore is coming to town. Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin. If we play sloppy like yesterday then those guys will beat us. It’s gonna be a tough one. No line yet, but it should be close to a pick ’em depending on how Baltimore looks on Monday Night.

And speaking of Monday night, we have a doubleheader tonight, Bengals at Ravens and Chargers at Raiders. But only one game looks like a value, the Chargers at Raiders, so let’s get into that one…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “10pm start? I’ll be asleep by halftime” bet): Oakland Raiders -1 over San Diego Chargers

Raiders fans. They are one of a kind.

I actually like the Raiders to make some noise this year. In my Saturday column I had them picked to win the AFC West. I think that the AFC West could be a battle. All 4 teams are pretty good, but no team stands out from the rest (although Denver looked pretty good last night).

The Chargers lost Vincent Jackson to free agency, and will probably not have Ryan Matthews tonight. So it will be Phillip Rivers looking to Antonio Gates for his offense tonight.  Last season, the Raiders lost in Week 17 to the Chargers at home, and that loss knocked them out of the playoffs race. I think they will remember that. The Raiders have a new GM, and a new Head Coach and are looking to (new and improved!) Carson Palmer to continue where he left off last season, in that Week 17 loss he threw for 417 yards.

The Raiders also get Darren McFadden back, he has been banged up his whole career and missed half the season last year with a foot injury. The Raiders should be able to move the ball with Palmer and McFadden. But their defense is another story.

The Raiders defense was not good last season, to put it kindly. 27th in defensive efficiency at Football Outsiders. But I think they use the home field advantage (one of the best in the NFL) and the arm of Carson Palmer version 2.0 and get a big opening win against a division rival. Could be high scoring, but I’ll stay away from the total and just take the Raiders.

How about Oakland starts fresh with a 30-20 win at home.

And oh yeah, I can’t forget that Phillip Rivers cost me money last year. It was Halloween Night, Chargers were lining up for a FG to win (and push -3) and he muffs the hold? I haven’t forgotten about that, Phil. Go Raiders!

The Line: Oakland Raiders -1, O/U 47
The Pick: Raiders -1
Game trends (via Covers.com): Oakland is 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Chargers; OVER is 5-0 last 5 in Oakland in this series.

Let’s get a winner! (I really need one)

Season Record: 0-2 (booooo!)

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Twitter:
Email: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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The Degenerate: Week 1 picks; Meet the Super Bowl Champs…

So, last year was a mess. 8-8. Andy and the crew salvaged the season with a 4 game winning streak at the end , but no playoffs. And you know, the Eagles didn’t deserve the postseason anyway. But this is a new year, new attitude, new everything.

Well, except the players, they’re pretty much the same as last year. Mike Vick, Lesean McCoy and Desean Jackson could be one of the top offensive trios in the league. The defense is solid, and I’m more comfortable with Juan Castillo as DC this season (but one bad defensive game and he’s back on the hot seat). To say I’m pretty optimistic about this season is an understatement, as you’ll see below I have high hopes for the Eagles in 2012-13…

(Click to embiggen)

I mean, it’s really as simple as that. 11-5, easy peezy. You might be able to swap the Ravens win and the Steelers loss, and we could grab another win somewhere else. I’m looking at 11-5, 12-4 if things break right (and Vick stays healthy). Yeah, I’m an optimistic kind of guy. And every year my heart gets smashed into a million pieces.

And yeah, this is pretty pointless, but here is my lame attempt at picking the division winners, wildcards teams and Super Bowl champions.

Super Bowl or Bust

NFC East – Philadelphia Eagles
NFC South – New Orleans Saints
NFC North – Green Bay Packers
NFC West – Seattle Seahawks

NFC Wildcard #1 – Dallas Cowboys
NFC Wildcard #2 – San Francisco 49ers
(yes, I know I left out the Falcons and Giants. 49ers should win the West, but I like Russell Wilson, so I’m picking Seattle.)

AFC East – New England Patriots
AFC South – Houston Texans
AFC North – Baltimore Ravens
AFC West – Oakland Raiders

AFC Wildcard #1 – Denver Broncos
AFC Wildcard #2 – Buffalo Bills
(Yeah, no Steelers, or Chargers, or Jets. And I’m really sticking my neck out with the Raiders. But the AFC West is a crapshoot, why not take a longshot?)

NFC Championship: Eagles over Packers
AFC Championship: Texans over Patriots

Super Bowl:
Eagles over Texans (yup, I went there).

So there you are, your Eagles will be the 2012-13 Super Bowl Champions. Get your hotel reservations for New Orleans now.

Onto the Week 1 pick, which coincidentally also involves the Eagles…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “You saw my Super Bowl pick, of course I’m picking the Eagles” bet): Eagles -9.5 over Browns

Hi Brandon Weeden, welcome to hell.

I’ve been eyeing this game since the schedule came out. Our first step on the road a Super Bowl title. Let’s be honest, the Browns aren’t that good. They ended last season with the 25th rated offense, and they are opening the season with a rookie QB (Brandon Weeden) and a rookie RB (Trent Richardson? Um, ok.

The Eagles defense is licking their lips to get a hold of the youngsters on Sunday. They led the league in sacks last season with 50 and should be able to put plenty of  pressure on Weeden all day. Trent Richardson isn’t even 100%, so he may be limited on Sunday. I like the Eagles defense to smother the young Browns offense.

On the other side of the ball the Browns actually have a decent pass defense. 2nd overall last year, only giving up 185 passing yard per game. But their rush defense isn’t so hot. 29th out of 32, 147 yards per game. So it should be a good mix of Shady on the ground this week.

The Eagles ended last season winning 4 straight by an average of 20 points. I just think this is a game where the Eagles are the better team and it will show on Sunday.

I’ll say the Eagles start their season with a big 31-13 win at the Dog Pound.

The Line: Eagles -9.5, O/U 43.5
The Pick: Eagles -9.5
Game trends (via Covers.com): Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 season openers; Browns are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.

I also was leaning towards picking Houston Texans -12.5 over Miami but I laid off once I heard Arian Foster was a gametime decision. I can’t lay that number without knowing if the #1 RB is going to play. It probably won';t make a difference, but it’s a long season so no need to force a pick here.

Good luck this week. Let’s try to bounce back off of the Giants loss on Wednesday.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Twitter:
Email: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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The Degenerate: Opening Night Pick; We’re baaaaack…

Ohai, welcome back. Have a seat. Can I get you a glass of Courvoisier?

Have a seat, let’s talk about the Giants/Cowboys game.

Here we are, back for another season of ‘The Degenerate‘, your favorite weekly NFL picks column. We had a good run last year (but we lost our Super Bowl pick, booo!). I had alot of fun writing the column and I’m back to do it again, so I’ll try to keep it entertaining and maybe help you all  make some money while we’re at it (but this is for amusement purposes only, of course).

To say that I’m happy that NFL football is back is an understatement. I mean the Phillies have had a nice run lately, but this was a brutal season overall. And now they are teasing us, making us think “well, they could still get that the 2nd wildcard”, but we all know it’s not happening (just kidding, it’s totally happening, and I’m all in until October 1st). Red means Go.

I know you have all been wondering, “Hey Fantasource, what have you been up to since we last talked?” Well, I‘m glad you asked. I did a few fun things this summer… but the most fun was heading up to the horse races in Saratoga (it rained, but we had a cooler full of pounders and we won a little money. All good.)


And oh yeah, I bet Paul Ryan at +1500 to win the VP nomination. A Jackson got me $300, so that was kinda cool. #TeamEddieMunster

Romney/Ryan… already stimulating the economy.

If you followed along last year you know that we had a very nice run with our NFL picks here at The Degenerate. We ended the season at 57% against the spread (not bad) and the Monday Night picks were smoking hot at 69% (9-4). You can see all of the 2011 picks documented here). I’d like to think there was some skill involved, like I didn’t just flip a coin and hope for the best (at least not most weeks). And I’m looking forward to doing it again.

But enough about the past. Let’s talk about the future. Like the immediate future. Tonight! Cowboys! Giants! NFL 2012-13 kickoff.

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “If we lose we’ll just blame the replacement refs” bet): NY Giants -3.5 OVER Dallas Cowboys

The NFL season starts on a Wednesday night this year. Yeah, kinda weird, but the Democrats are having their convention this week so the NFL moved the game from Thursday as to not interfere with President Obama’s acceptance speech. Good for them. Whatever.

The first week of the NFL season is always a little tough to handicap. You never know what teams will take a step up and be better (like the 49ers last year), and what teams will fall apart (um, I guess that would’ve been the Eagles last year). But in this one, I don’t really expect a much different look from either team compared to last year.

The Giants are coming off of another Super Bowl win (pardon me while I go throw  up). And yeah, as much as I hate the Giants you gotta tip your cap to Eli, 2 rings in 8 seasons. Good work, Peyton’s little brother. But did the Giants get any better from last year? Any worse? They have Eli, a power running game, some very good wide receivers, a killer defensive line, and rosy-cheeked Tom Coughlin. Yup, it’s pretty much same recipe as last year.

ELI!

And on the other hand, there are the Cowboys. It’s the same story for them, too. A crazy owner,  Tony Romo behind center, pretty good RB’s, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin at WR (both formidable players when healthy), and a Rob Ryan defense that can’t seem to stop the Giants from scoring (giving up 37 and 31 points to the Giants last year). Dallas tried to upgrade their defensive backfield in the offseason and if the preseason numbers are any indication, they are an improved bunch. But I think Eli and Cruz will test the rookie Claiboirne, we’ll see if he is up for the task.

I’m going with the Giants -3.5 in this one. Kinda seems like a spot where the Giants buckle down and get a big win. Laying 3.5 points in their home opener against the banged up Cowboys? I like my chances. Jason Witten is a game time decision (spleen), Miles Austin hasn’t played at all this preseason due to hamstring problems, and Dez Bryant is nursing a bum knee (oh yeah, he also slapped him mom in the face a few weeks ago). The Giants d-line should be able to get to Romo (they sacked him 6 times in their 31-17 win in Week 17 ). Unless they get a 200 yard rushing game from DeMarco Murray I just don’t see where the Cowboys offense comes from. And that will be the big difference.

“But what about the replacement refs!?!?!” Yeah, I know the refs will be the big story this weekend, but they’ll be terrible for both teams. And hopefully their bad calls even out and they don’t have an impact on the final score. But I guess time will tell.

“But what about the weather!?!” Yeah, looks like some rain tonight in North Jersey but according to latest forecasts rain shouldn’t impact the game.

How about we say Eli throws a few TD’s, the Giants d-line sacks Romo a bunch of times and the Giants grab a nice division win, 27-17.

The Line: Giants -3.5, O/U 46
The Pick: Giants -3.5
Game trends (via Covers.com): Giants are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Cowboys; OVER is 5-1 last 6 in the series, Last 12 years the Super Bowl champ from the previous season is 8-2-2 ATS in the opening game the next season.

Season Record: 0-0.

Let’s get a winner tonight and come back Friday for the rest of the Week 1 picks, including Eagles / Browns.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Twitter:
Email: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Pick – So, Who Do You Hate Less?

Like Huey Lewis said, “So, this is it.” It’s the last Degenerate column for the 2011-12 NFL season. And you know what, I think this season was pretty successful. Yeah, we had some rough patches (like losing 5 in a row at one point), but we are ending the season on a nice streak, hitting 9 of our last 11 picks. Sweet.

We had a winner in the AFC Championship with the Ravens +7 over the Patriots. Now let’s end the season on a high note with a Super Bowl winner. That would make me happy, and it would put us at 26-18 (59%) on the season. Not too shabby. And as an added bonus, we also solicited Super Bowl picks from some “Friends of SpikeEskin.com”, including meteorologist/sports nut John Bolaris.

Yesterday, I posted my picks in some Super Bowl props, The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Props – Fishnets, Gatorade and Belly Buttonscheck it out here.

The ‘Friends of SpikeEskin.com’ picks:

Spike Eskin – 94WIP, CBS, this site (@SpikeEskin):

Prediction: Giants – (-12) over Patriots (-17)

In the worst Super Bowl of all time, the Giants prevail with a negative score. The refs will discuss for over an hour whether -12 is actually greater than -17. Eli Manning will look like he’s smelling a fart. At least the hoodie will go to sleep sad.

 

Cranekicker from CraneKickChronicles.com (@Cranekicker)

Prediction: Patriots 27 Giants 20

Rationale: I want both teams to lose but I have come to grips with that being impossible. And despite what a local shockjock wrote in a recent column, I cannot root for the Giants. The only time you will catch me cheering for the Giants is when they are fumbling or throwing interceptions.

The truth is, Eli Manning is really good and the Giants run a great organization and I can’t stand it. I’d rather have Boston fans yucking it up from a far than loud mouthed New Yorkers right around the corner professing their love for Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning when really they tried to run both of them out of town. So I lay my hopes with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. This all makes me sick. Thank God for buffalo chicken dip and block pools. Brady with a late TD to Hernandez for the win. Here’s a picture of Andre Tippett.
Andre Tippett

 

Pat Gallen from Phillies Nation and 97.3 ESPN Radio (@PatGallen_PN):

Prediction: Giants 30, Pats 26. It pains me to go this way, but the Giants D is playing really well right now, and the Patriots D isn’t really all that great. Eli wins…dammit

 

John Bolaris (@JohnBolaris):

Prediction: Giants 27, Pats 24. Don’t like Pats D. Giants going in Hot. Eli has been huge this year especially 4th quarter. Brady can still cut u up like a fine surgeon. And what is against the Giants, the pure probability factor that it’s really tough to beat any NFL team twice in the same year especially when you’re dealing with Pats & Brady. That being said Pats defense should be their downfall. JB

 

Meech – the guy who killed The Fightins (@meechone):

Prediction: Giants 30, Pats 24 (OT)

 

CBS3’s Chris May (@chrismayphilly):

Prediction: Patriots 27 Giants 21. Brady’s your MVP.

 

Zoo With Roy (@zoowithroy):

Prediction: YEAH GIRL PUT IT IN THE BANK: Giants 37, Pats 34

 

CSN’s Marshall Harris (@mharrisCSN):

Prediction: I got the Giants 35-31.

 

Philly.com’s Ryan Petzar(@petzrawr):

Prediction: 21-10 Pats.

 

Dan Roche – Daily News Live Producer  (@RochesRWinners):
Some predictions:

Duration of Kelly Clarkson’s National Anthem:

Over 1:34
Under 1:34
Will be delayed until she finishes her sandwich 

Will Clarkson show her midriff?

Yes (1/3)
No (4/1)
My eyes!! My eyes!! √

What will be higher on Super Bowl Sunday?

Patriots points(-115)
LeBron James points vs Raptors (-115)
Drexel University’s campus (no line) 

What will be shown more frequently?
Peyton Manning’s Face
The “Eli Manning Face” 

Oh yeah, the game:

Patriots 27 (-2½) √
Giants 24

 

Kevin Cooney of PhillyBurbs.com (@KevinCooney)

Too many people are taking Eli and Coughlin… I’m going with opposite world. I can’t see Brady and Belichick losing two Super Bowls to the same team. Plus, the Giants won’t be able to cover the two tight ends.

Prediction:Patriots 31, Giants 24


Ok, not that my pick carries any more weight than those above (who am I kidding, this is the only one that matters), but here we go…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “I only watch it for the commercials” pick)
New England Patriots -2½ over New York Giants

My money is on this guy.

In a ‘lesser of two evils’ selection, I’m going with the Patriots.

Picking this game is kind of like choosing between stubbing your toe or banging your funnybone. Neither one is too appealing. On the one hand you have the Patriots. God’s gift to the NFL (or so their fans would make you think), they have a Hall of Fame QB, an evil wizard coach and no defense, yet they are scoring at a record pace and went 15-3. The Pats have 7 Super Bowl appearances and 3 Lombardi Trophy’s. On the other hand you have the Giants. Yeah, no further explanation necessary. I’ve been raised since day 1 to hate strongly dislike the Giants, and it seems like every few years they just go out of their way to rub my face in it. They have 3 Super Bowl titles in 5 appearances. (But I thought we were the Dream Team?)

My outfit on Sunday.

I put my personal biases aside and I looked at this game with a neutral eye. And when I broke it down I just think the Patriots are the better team with the better coach and the better QB. Yeah, their defense stinks, but that isn’t news. The Gronkowski injury is distracting people from the bigger picture, even without Gronk the Patriots have another very good tight end (Aaron Hernadez) and Wes Welker, the receiving corp is going to be fine. Brady is going against the 21st ranked pass defense, he’ll do alright. The Broncos had the 24th ranked pass defense and you saw what he did to them, twice. Two weeks ago they played the Baltimore Ravens (the best defense in the NFL) and they were able to put up 23 points. The Pats running game is pretty good too, 4th ranked overall. BenJarvus Green-Ellis should be able to move the ball against the Giants 19th ranked rush defense. Pats Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien is leaving New England to coach Penn State, so there is some extra motivation (if it was even needed) to send him out a winner.

I expect the Giants to try to take advantage of the New England pass defense, so expect lots of Eli Manning passes, and he has some pretty good weapons to work with. Manningham, Cruz and Nicks. That’s three solid receivers right there. And the Giants running game is decent, Bradshaw and Jacobs should see alot of touches, especially if New York gets an early lead. I’m not saying the Patriots will shut down Eli and the Giants defense, I just think that the Patriots defense will be ready.

I’ll keep it short, here are 3 reasons why I like the Patriots to win and cover on Sunday:

  1. Nah, this isn't gonna happen again.

    This is a revenge game (times two) for New England. Not only did the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII to ruin the Patriots undefeated season, they also went into Foxboro this season in Week 9 and beat New England. After that loss the Patriots went on a 10 game winning streak. Brady isn’t going to forget that Week 9 loss, nor has he forgotten that 2008 Super Bowl upset. He has a chance to right a wrong on the biggest stage of all.

  2. Everyone is betting the Giants. So, naturally I have to look to the other side. The early money came in on the Giants, which makes sense. The early bettors grabbed the Giants at +3½ and the line dropped to +3. And even more  money came in on the Giants, forcing the line to drop further to 2½ on Friday morning. And laying 2½ is where you bang the Patriots. From Covers.com: “The majority of the early money, both sharp and square, has been on the Giants. CNBC’s Darren Rovell tweeted that 80 percent of the max $25,000 bets at the offshore sportsbook BetOnline.com were on the Giants”.
  3. The Patriots are the better team. Yes, everyone says “the defense stinks”, “Eli is gonna light them up”. Well, they’ve had the same terrible defense all season, and they’re 15-3. They average 32 points per game, and they only give up 20 points. Compare that to the Giants. New York scores 25 and gives up 23. So, shouldn’t we be saying the Giants defense stinks? I don’t know, this seems like a pretty even matchup and if I’m laying down my money on either Eli or Brady, I’ll take Brady.

I’ll say, the Patriots get their revenge in front of an enormous TV audience, in the most anticipated Super Bowl in recent memory, in Peyton Manning’s living room. Brady and the Patriots win, 27-20.

The Line: New England -2½, O/U 54
The Pick: New England -2½
Game Trends (via Covers.com): New England: 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games. New York: 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.

Thanks for reading the NFL picks column all year, good luck!!

(Yes, I’ll be back with some other stuff, March Madness, baseball, NBA playoffs, etc.)

Fantasource

Season Record: 25-18. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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The Degenerate: The Super Bowl Props – Fishnets, Gatorade and Belly Buttons.

Well, it’s finally here. The Super Bowl.

Back in August when all of us Eagles fans were looking ahead to the season I’m sure alot of us pictured the Eagles playing this week. Well, we all know what happened. Not quite a Super Bowl run, but an interesting season nonetheless. Andy is coming back, Juan is coming back, pretty much the same story next year, let’s hope we have more success. But enough about the Birds, it’s Super Bowl week.

We’re going to approach the Super Bowl in two installments here at SpikeEskin.com. Today, we’ll take a look at prop bets. Prop bets are those crazy bets that you hear people talking about on TV and radio, pretty much any scenario you want to bet on is available.  They make for interesting conversation, and keep people talking during the leadup to the game when nothing else is happening.

Some are pretty basic football bets, “How many passing attempts for Tom Brady?”, “How many completions for Eli Manning?”. But the ‘wacky’ prop bets are the ones that get most of the attention, bets like “Who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first in his postgame interview?”, “How many times will they show Robert Kraft on camera”, stuff like that. I don’t know if there is any real way to handicap some of these, but I’ll break a few down and give out my picks.

So, today it’s the prop bets and tomorrow will be the picks. I’ll make a pick in the game (as usual), but I’m pretty excited to say that we’ll also have Super Bowl picks from some of our favorite folks in the internet world (Twitter legends, bloggers, local celebs, etc.). Spike hasn’t unvelied the complete list to me, but some of the early names look interesting. That should be a fun read tomorrow.

I found these props and their odds from Sportsbook.com, but these props and many, many others are available at almost all online sports books (and in the Vegas casinos, as well). Even my local guy offers a long list of props to pick from. I included a PDF from Sportsbook.com if you want to print some out and bring them to your Super Bowl party (for amusement purposes only, of course).

Last year a buddy of mine had Jordy Nelson to score the first TD at 11-1. And yeah, when Nelson broke that TD and scored, it was cha-ching for him. Nice payday and it was still the first quarter. These payouts aren’t as high paying, but they will be fun to track, so let’s get to it…

1) What will be higher Eli Manning Completions (+120) or Lebron James Points (-150)

Yup, you can bet on LeBron in a Super Bowl prop

Before you decide on this wager you need to put a number on both options. Eli’s completions? Flacco went 22-36 for 306 yards vs. the Patriots 2 weeks ago, so you can use that as a starting point. So, you have to think Eli will do something similar, his over/under for completions is 24.5 with more juice on the Over, so Vegas thinks around 25/26. So how about we say 26 total completions for Eli.

LeBron plays the Raptors on Sunday afternoon. That game should be a blow out, and I don’t expect LeBron to play the whole game. But even 3 quarters of LeBron will get you 26+ points. LeBron has been held under 26 points only 4 times this season.

Fantasource says: I’ll take LeBron to have more points. But it could be close. How about Eli completes 26, LeBron scores 30.

2) What will be higher Tom Brady TD Passes (-115) or Bruins Total Goals (-115)

How many TD’s do you think Tom Brady will throw? I’ll say 3. That’s just a guess. I know for sure that he won’t throw 6 like he did against the Broncos. And the Bruins goals? They’re leading the NHL in goals per game (3.5), and they play the Capitals who give up 2.8 goals per game. So let’s say 3+ goals for the Bruins.

Fantasource says: I’ll take the Bruins Total Goals to be higher. It’s gonna be tough for Brady to get more than 3 TD’s. I’ll wager that the Bruins have a decent chance at 4+ goals.

3) How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem? From first note starts until she completes saying “Brave”.

Over 1 minute 34 Seconds (-120)
Under 1 minute 34 Seconds (-120)

Are we gonna see that belly?

This one is so dumb that you have to love it. And you know what, someone actually did alot of research on this. So here’s all you ever wanted to know, and then some, about the National Anthem prop bet from BeyondTheBets.com. “Super Bowl National Anthem: Will Clarkson’s rendition fall short of 1:34 over/under?”

Fantasource says: BeyondTheBets says Under. But Covers.com says they like the Over. And I say… Under. BeyondTheBets.com makes a more compelling case than Covers.com. But really, if you’re betting this you might have a problem (but that is probably true for most of these prop bets).

4) Will Kelly Clarkson’s bare belly be showing when she sings the National Anthem?

Yes +300

For this one I consulted my pop-culture expert, Mrs. Fantasource. Her analysis was this, “Well, if she shows her belly it won’t be on purpose. She’s a little chunky.”

Fantasource says: Actually Mrs. Fantasource says: “No, at least not on purpose.” So, no bet on this one for me.

5) Will Madonna be wearing fishnet stockings at any point during the Super Bowl Halftime show?

Yes -120
No -120

As much as this might be a “who the hell knows?” type of bet, there is some recent history to go back on. In the past month Madonna has been photographed a few times, most times she is wearing fishnets. I guess the Material Girl is trying fishnets as party of her new look. WagerMinds.com did some research as well and came to the conclusion that ‘Yes’ is a good bet. So believe it or not, I’m saying bet ‘Yes’ on this one.

Fantasource says: Bet Yes. Fishnets are in this season, at least for Madonna, and she will wear them proudly.

6) How many times will David Tyree’s 2008 Super Bowl catch be shown be shown on TV during the game? From kick off until final whistle. Half-time does not count towards wager.

Over 1 (-160)
Under 1 (+120)

You gotta go OVER. No doubt. You have to expect it’s coming at least once, and at that point you’ll have a push. Will it happen twice? Unlikely, but you never know. If it’s late and the game is tight, or if there is a crazy catch by a Giants WR they may show it again.

Fantasource says: Bet OVER. At the very least you should get a push.

7) Which region will have the higher local TV Rating?
Boston -7 (-120)
New York +7 (-120)

I don’t know much about TV ratings, but I know the Bostonians love to watch their Pats. When these teams played in Super Bowl XLII the Giants got crushed in the ratings. Boston came in with a 55.6 local rating, New York got 44.9 local. Why would this year be any different? I think it might even be a higher difference.

Fantasource says: Lay the 7 ratings points (or whatever they’re called) and cash in. Boston is the solid play here. If there was a ‘best bet’, this would be it.

8 ) Longest Completion – Eli Manning (NYG) Over/Under 45½ yards
Over -130
Under EVEN

Fishnets!

I’m going on a hunch here and saying that Eli will be able to find one of his WR’s for a long gain. The Patriots pass defense is not good. I mean, Tebow even got a 41 yard pass in, and he played terrible. Eli got a 66 yard pass against the Packers and 36 yarder against a tough 49ers defense. A combination of a talented Giants receiving corp and a bad Patriots defense makes me say over is a Over.

Fantasource says: I like the OVER 45½ yards. I think Eli will test the Pats pass defense, and Eli’s WR’s have the speed and talent to break a long one.

9) What Color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?

Clear/Water – 2/1
Yellow – 2/1
Orange – 9/4
Red – 11/2
Green – 6/1
Blue – 10/1

Fantasource says: Clear/Water is the choice here, and at 2/1 it’s a nice bet. Bill Belicheck has been doused with only water in his Patriots coaching career. And when the Giants won in 2008, yup, Coughlin got a water bath (see the image at the top). Go with ‘Clear/Water’ and meet me at the cash window for your 2/1 payout.

10) What will be higher, Hakeem Nicks Receptions (-115) OR Total Goals in the Flyers/Rangers game (-115)?

Flyers fans, this one is for you. The Over/Under for Hakeem Nick receptions is 5½, and the juice is on the UNDER. So Vegas is thinking 5 or fewer receptions. But I expect Eli to be tossing all day, and Nicks is one of his main targets. Flyers/Rangers total goals? These teams have played 3 times this season, with total goals of 2,6, and 5. The Rangers are only giving up 2.0 goals per game, and scoring 2.8. The Flyers are scoring 3.3, and surrendering 2.9. We can put the total goals at a max of 6 and hope Hakeem Nicks is Eli’s main target. I like Nicks here.

Fantasource says:  Flyers/Rangers should be low scoring, and Eli should be tossing it all day. I like Nicks’ Receptions to be higher.

So there you have it. Some meaningless prop bets to make the game more enjoyable. You can have action from before the kickoff (National Anthem time), up to after the final whistle has blown (Gatorade bath color).

Good luck!!

 

Fantasource

 

Season Record: 25-18. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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