Posted on 17 January 2014.
Spike is BOLD
Fantasource is ITALICS
Hey Fantasource, check out my weiner 8========D.
That’s impressive, must be excited about the big games this weekend..
To tell you the truth, it’s a leftover from your fantastic performance last week.
Yeah, last weekend was nice. Won the teaser, and we hit almost all of the props we put out. Except Edelman over 6’ catches. He only got 6. So close…
We should tell people that I was unable to get a studio to record the pod this week. So I suggested we do this “email exchange” bit, like Simmons and Gladwell do. Except not as many words and probably not as insightful. You might say, “Spike, isn’t that just ripping off Simmons?” My response that would be, “of course, but you’re about two years late in accusing me of that.” I’m looking to sign up Jimmy King to do podcasts, and have his mere presence ruin my judgement.
I’m wearing a afro wig ala Gladwell. And I’m going to write a book for the sole purpose of having white people fawn over me. I’ve put in my 10,000 hours handcapping. And I still suck. His arguments hold no water. Let’s get busy with the weekend picks….
I’ve got my 10,000 hours in bullshitting on the internet, so this should come natural. So, we’ll get to a few props, but you said you have a pick for this weekend. I think both of these games are super tough. Feels like the best combo of teams in the Championship games in forever.
Yeah. In Week 16 we talked about the future Super Bowl odds, and these four teams were the top four on the list. So yeah, even though it’s not one versus in both games, San Fran is clearly the second best team in the NFC, even though they were a wildcard team.
I think the Patriots and Broncos will get all of the hype, but the better game this weekend will be Seattle vs San Fran. Over under of 38.5?? That’s low. I would lean to Under in that game, but that’s not the ‘official’ pick I’m making.
I like Denver -5’.
Yowzer. You’re betting against the Hoodie? I won’t tell him.
I like the Broncos alot. Yes, the Pats are playing well, despite injuries, but I think the Broncos offense will be strong enough to score 30+ and get the win this weekend.
The Pats offense is potent, but Denver defense isn’t terrible. And they are at home. I like them to win something like 34-21?
Here’s a “twitter tidbit” (meaning I got it from a tweet and I haven’t even verified it): Since 2000 Teams scoring 40 or more points in a playoff game are 2-15-1 ATS the following week.
Pats put up 43 last week. And they jumped out early on the Colts. I don’t see that happening this week.
And LaGarrette Blount ran well the past two games, and he should get the ball this weekend, but 180 yards and four TD’s probably won’t happen again.
Another unverified Twitter Tidbit: Home team last 13 Patriots games: 11-2 ATS.
Yeah, it sort of feels like the Patriots have been doing it with smoke and mirrors for a while now. I guess the thing that really gets in my head is that I’ve finally, after a decade of fighting it, started to buy into the stupid Peyton Manning playoff narrative. I just get nervous betting on him. Arguably the greatest quarterback of all time and the thing that makes me worried is “he might choke again.” Silly I know, but I can’t get it out of my head.
Twitter tidbit: #Broncos have been held to less than 400 yards of offense only 3 times this season – all 3 times by Chargers
Denver at home: winning home games by an avg 16 points.
Take out Chargers games, Broncos winning home games by 20 points.
445 ypg total offense at home this season
We all know about the Broncos offense, but I think the story will be the Patriots defense as the weak point.
give up 130 rush yards per game this season.
Since Week 5 – 138 ypg rush & 383 ypg total offense.
388 yards total offense since bye week
Pats 4-4 SU on the road this year, but they stay within 7 points in all road losses.
So you can say they may lose but still cover. But I think if Denver wins they win by 7+.
Well the odds say it will be the Seahawks and the Broncos. I think I’d be happy with any matchup out of these four teams. I know it’s not your official pick, but do you like any team in the other game?
If I was picking the others, I would go with (in order of confidence)
1) Seattle / SF Under 38.5
2) Denver / NE Over 55.5
3) Seattle -3.5. If I play Seattle I would buy a half point to get to -3. Pay a little extra juice. Could come down to a field goal.
So we can put the Broncos -5’ and write it in stone. That’s the pick this weekend. But let’s move onto some props, which we did pretty well with last weekend. Maybe we know what we are talking about? (nah, probably just lucky)
Prop #1: Who will record the most Rushing Yards?
Marshawn Lynch (SEA) +120
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) +250
LeGarrette Blount (NE) +275
Frank Gore (SF) +400
I like Knowshon Moreno here at +250. He only got 100+ yards once this season. But it was against the Patriots, and he roll up 224 yards rushing. I expect him to see alot of touches this week. Especially if Denver gets a lead, maybe they learned from the last game. Get a lead and try to milk some clock. Don’t let New England get back in it.
Lynch is also an option but playing 49ers D scares me.
Speaking of options but scary defenses, I don’t know man, with as scary as the Seattle pass defense is, and as low scoring as this could be, isn’t Gore at +400 a decent play?
Maybe, Seattle does give up rush yards. They’ve given up 100+ yards rushing 10 times in 18 games. So, he could be worth a flyer. But I’m gonna stay away from him.
Prop #2: Who will record the most Receiving Yards?
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) 7/2
Julian Edelman (NE) 4/1
Anquan Boldin (SF) 9/2
Eric Decker (DEN) 11/2
Michael Crabtree (SF) 11/2
Wes Welker (DEN) 6/1
Golden Tate (SEA) 9/1
Percy Harvin (SEA) 9/1
This is too tough for me. I mean, I can’t imagine taking anyone in the NFC game. I know Boldin would be a hot pick, but I can’t in my right mind suggest you bet any receiver against the Seattle defense. Anything here?
Yeah, I think playing multiple guys from Denver could be the play. like we did last week. Take Thomas/Decker/Welker and see if any go off. Still make $$ if any of the 3 get most yards. Definitely staying away from the NFC game. Don;t see any of those guys getting big yards.
Edelman is 4/1 but he is a receptions guy, not known for big yards.
Speaking of Edelman…
Prop #3: Total Receptions – Julian Edelman (NE) O/U 6½
Yes, I do like this OVER 6.5 receptions. Again. We lost last week, but I think he will get targets this week and I expect Brady to throw a lot more than last week. Blount rushing and the Luck interceptions probably impacted Edleman last week. But this week, I think he will get catches. And win this OVER 6.5.
Prop #4: Total Rushing Yards – Knowshon Moreno (DEN) O/U 77½
Well thinking about what you did in the earlier prop, I gotta think you’re going OVER here.
Yes, I am going OVER. I think even if Moreno doesn’t win most rushing yards, he should be able to get 78+ this week. For the same reason I mentioned earlier, Pat rush defense is not great, and he should get enough touches to get to 78+.
Prop #5: Total Passing Yards – Colin Kaepernick (SF) O/U 190½
UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER. Can I get odds on under half of this?
UNDER!! Yes, I love the Under here. Kaepernick averages only 199 ypg this season in all games. And vs. Seattle in two games he had 125 and 175..
He probably needs 20+ completions to get this number and Seattle is 4th in the league in completions surendered per game. and Opponents are only getting 179 ypg on seattle pass D this year. and 170 yards at home (in Seattle). Love the UNDER.
Prop #6: Total Rushing Yards – Marshawn Lynch (SEA) O/U 89½
I’m gonna hedge my Moreno most rushing yards bet with this one. I like Lynch OVER 89.5. I do think he will get yards, and he has had success vs. SF this year. 2 game he had 28 carries for 98 and 20 carries for 72 yars.
The key is can he get 21+ carries? When he gets 21+ carried this year (4 games) he has eclipsed 89 yards in all 4 games.
That is an “analytic pick”
Now on to the best prop on the board…
Prop #7: Will any Seahawk Player kiss his bicep after he scores a TD in the game?
Must be clearly shown on TV, Book Manager’s decision is final.
Dude I love the YES on this one. I don’t know why, but I love it. I’m a huge Kaep fan, but he’s so asking for it.
Yes, after what he did last week with the Superman pose, you know Seattle would love to rub it in if they are winning late and get a score, expecially a defensive TD, they will try it. But -1000 is BIG juice. So maybe only a few $$. Don’t cash in the 401k but it will be fu to watch.
Of course all of these picks are FOR AMUSEMENT PURPOSES ONLY. So we hope everyone has fun watching the games and maybe if Denver wins and covers I’ll be kissing my biceps at the end.
I do have a Seattle 12-1 to win the Super Bowl ticket, so i am also cheering for a Seattle win.
Well being that you got Marvin Lewis’ed on your other Super Bowl futures ticket, I’m cheering for you. I’d rather have Kaep win, but as long as a running QB wins, it’s troll gold for me.
Alright, enjoy the games and BE WELL!
Follow Fantsource on Twitter @Fantasource
Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin