Tag Archive | "Dallas"

The Degenerate: Week 16, The Friday Pick: Merry Christmas and Dallas Sucks!

“And so this is Christmas Cowboys week, I hope you have fun. The near and the dear ones, the old and the young.”
Yeah, not quite how John Lennon wrote it, but fitting nonetheless.

Another big week for Shady?

So it’s Cowboys week, and it’s ‘Win or Go Home’ version 4.0 for the Eagles. But for real this time. The Eagles are on the ropes and not only do they have to win at Dallas but they have to cheer for a Jets win over the Giants, if both of those things happen, we are still alive. Yes, I think the Jets will win, and I think the Eagles will win and I think we will be riding this thing out until the last minutes of Week 17. We’re not dead yet.


I wanted to take a minute to say thanks to everyone for reading the posts this year and for listening to my Twitter nonsense. Hopefully we all made a little money this season. Not just on the picks here but on some of the games I put out myself or re-tweeted on Twitter.

We had a loser last night with the Texans -6.5 and I think we can officially write off the Texans. They could end up with a #2 seed and I’d still bet against them at home in the playoffs. What a bad showing last night. Arian Foster did all he could, but TJ Yates is not a big game QB. How can you lose to the Colts? Oh well, we dropped to 21-17 on the season with the loss.

I’m going to keep it short this week, because I know that we all have alot on our plate this week trying to wrap up Christmas week. I won’t be putting out a Monday Night Football pick this week, so this is the last post for the week.

Onto the Week 16 pick…

Bet #1: (a.k.a. The “what’s better than beating the Cowboys on Christmas Eve?” pick)

Parlay: Eagles +1.5 AND Eagles / Cowboys UNDER 50.5

Oh, for the love of God. Are you kidding me?

I love Cowboys fans, they sure are loyal to a fault. I was looking into this game trying to get a feel for how it will go, so I was perusing some Cowboys blogs to try to take the pulse of the Dallas fans and uncover some local angle that I missed, and let me tell you something about the Cowboys fans this week… they sure are confident that Santa Romo will be delivering them a win (I’m really not one to talk, I always pick the Eagles. Bleed Green, and all that).

Over at TheLandryHat.com (great name, BTW), all seven of the contributors picked the Cowboys to win. Fancy that. Here are some nuggets:

‘[Eagles] are riding high off two straight wins (against the Dolphins and Jets) and they might just be starting to buy into the “dream team” hype’ – Dream Team reference? That is so Week 4.

‘The Boys are coming off a stellar win against the Buccaneers’ – Um, buddy, you beat Tampa Bay not the 1975 Steelers.

One guy says: “Rob Ryan better think of something to stop Vick”. You mean, unlike the last time they played? But he still picks the Boys to win by 3.

I love this one: “Michael Vick will probably get hurt.” So this cat is basing his prediction on Vick getting hurt? Ha ha. Stay classy, Dallas.

Jason Babin is closing in on the sack record.

And to a man, they all are predicting a big offensive game from the Cowboys, 34/31/34/38/30 points? Did I miss something, did RB Felix Jones get miraculously healed this week, or did the Cowboys sign 1997 Barry Sanders? They have Tony Romo, a decent slew of WR’s and at RB they have either a very banged up Felix Jones, or newly-signed Sammy Morris (or some dude named Chauncey Washington).

So Dallas fans are coming in all pumped up and ready for revenge. Ok, I get that. We whooped their ass in Week 8 and they probably couldn’t live with themselves if they got slapped around at home on Christmas Eve. That Week 8 win was probably the most fun game to watch all season. Sunday night national TV beatdown of the Cowboys. Good stuff.

This week I am going to say the Eagles win and game stays under 50.5, yup it’s a Christmas Eve parlay. Why not? Hey it’s Saturday night, it’s Christmas Eve, and you know you’ll be watching the game. You’ll probably be drinking a few beers, hanging with your Uncle Dave who can’t stop telling you about the time he beat up a Cowboys fan in the 700 Level in 1979 (“He had the balls to wear a Tony Dorsett jersey in the Vet, what was I supposed to do?”). I love the holidays.

And in case you don’t know, a parlay is a bet where you make two (or more) bets and if they all win then you win your bet, in this case you would parlay the Eagles +1.5 and UNDER 50.5 and this bet will get you a payout of around 2.5 times your bet (payout depends on the individual wager odds). But if either end of the parlay loses, you lose your bet, so there is a risk associated with the reward.  Here’s a good parlay calculator if you want to find out more.

Let's hope the Eagles give us a Merry Christmas.

The big unknown this week is if the Giants win in the early game then the Eagles will be eliminated from the playoff picture. But I think in either case (Giants win or lose) the Eagles will come to play in Dallas.

These teams are very similar, Eagles are 11th in offense, 12th in defense, Dallas is 9th in offense, 15th in defense. But I think the X factor in this game is the running game. Dallas is without rookie sensation DeMarco Murray (OUT) and Felix Jones is banged up pretty good with a hamstring injury. Jones missed practice this week and is a game-time decision (the Cowboys say he will play, but who knows how healthy he will be). Sammy Morris is on stand-by to handle the rushing duties in case Jones can’t go.

That plays into the Eagles favor, it lets them put more focus on Romo and the passing game. The Eagles do ok with Romo, in eight career games vs. the Eagles he has 11 TD’s and 11 INT’s. Yeah, Tony is playing great ball the past two weeks, and is having a pretty good season. But the Eagles are 11th vs. the pass, and #1 pass rushing team in the NFL (Dallas has the #10 ranked pass protection). If Babin and the boys can pressure Romo, I don’t see him having a very productive day. And with no running game to fall back on, it could be trouble for the Cowboys. Asante Samuel is out and that could hurt, but I think the Eagles will be ok in the defensive backfield (DRC gets the start in place of Asante? Oh boy).

The Eagles on offense should just be Shady all day, he got 185 yards rushing in the first meeting. Why change what works. Dallas is middle of the league in rush defense (16th overall). Brandon Jacobs got 101 yards and 2 TD’s in the Giants win in Dallas two weeks ago. Just give the ball to Shady!

Shady as a running threat will open up the game for Mike Vick. I think Vick will have a good game (250 yards passing, 2 TDs?), DeMarcus Ware is hurting but should play but anything less than 100% of DeMarcus Ware is a good thing for opponents.

It’s Christmas Eve and I think the fat man will give you something to smile about, no not Santa Claus, Andy Reid. How about the Eagles continue where they left off in Week 8 and knock off the Cowboys 24-20.

Eagles: CB Asante Samuel is  OUT.
Cowboys: RB Felix Jones is game time decision but should play. LB DeMarcus Ware is probable and should play.

The Line: Cowboys -1.5, O/U 50.5
The Pick: Parlay: Eagles +1.5 / UNDER 50.5

Merry Christmas!!





Season Record: 21-17. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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Time’s Yours Podcast: The Eagles Dismantle The Cowboys

My good friend Lee Russakoff has been Mr. Negative about the Eagles the last few weeks.

After the Eagles complete and total domination of the Cowboys last night, the thought of them making the playoffs is a little bit easier to swallow. Well, for most people. Let’s see if Lee’s with us.

We talk Vick at his best, McCoy being the best, Castillo’s defense coming alive and how they can win the division.

Click here and subscribe to Time’s Yours on iTunes.

Follow Lee Russakoff on Twitter @LeeRussakoff.

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The Degenerate: Week 8, The Friday Picks

Asante is fired up for the Cowboys

So, this is it. Cowboys week. Eagles laying three at home.

Whatever, Tom.

Even though Tom Landry frowns upon it, I’m making some picks this week. I found this picture when I was scouring the internet for images for this post. I couldn’t believe it. I mean smug-ass Tom Landry is one of the reasons we hate the Cowboys. Seriously, Tom Landry is going to lecture me about gambling, wasn’t one of his guys doing coke off of his helmet at halftime of the Super Bowl or something?

As far as I’m concerned gambling is like the stock market, you can lose alot of money in the stock market if you don’t do your research and manage your money, it’s the same thing with gambling. We’re on a nice run here hitting 80% over the last four weeks, but that still doesn’t mean we are going to hype something up as a lock. And the opposite is also true, trying to chase money is the worst strategy ever. Doubling your bets to get out of the hole is dumb. Sometimes you just have to take your lumps and move on. Of course, we do it all for amusement purposes only here at SpikeEskin.com. Hopefully our winning trend will continue this weekend.

It’s another week with high pointspreads from Vegas. I don’t remember seeing so many high spread like we’ve had this week and in Week 6. This week we have six out of the 13 games with lines of nine points or higher, and six games with lines of 3.5 points or lower. Wow, not making it easy on us. Toss-ups or blowouts, take your pick. A few matchups looked interesting but I decided to pass on making a choice on these games:

Poor, sad, Rex

Redskins @ Bills (in Toronto) (Bills -6) – this one jumped out at me as a Bills play. I don’t think the Redskins have the offense to make a game of it. The Bills are coming off the bye week and should be ready to play. The line jumped from Bills -4 to Bills -6 so the sharps felt the same way. I laid off this one because I had a gut feeling it could be a sucker line. I don’t want to lay points to find out if the Bills are for real.

Browns @ 49ers (49ers -10) – I think the 49ers are for real, especially on defense. They’re the best team in the NFC West (I know, that’s not saying much). Alex Smith is playing good enough not to lose. And on the other side you have a bad Cleveland team going to the west coast after a terrible performance against Seattle (ugly 6-3 win). The 49ers are 5-1 ATS this season, Cleveland is 1-3-2 ATS with some ugly losses. Cleveland wins are against Miami, Indianapolis and Seattle (combined record: 2-17), so their three wins are not impressive at all. I laid off this one because the Browns, while they suck on offense, are decent on defense. And getting 10 points they might be able to keep the score low enough to stay within the number.

Those 2 games might be good teaser material, but I’m going to pass on them this week. But I did isolate one other game that I liked, plus I’ll make my pick on the Eagles/Cowboys, so let’s get to it…

Bet #1: (a.k.a The “You’re picking the Under?” pick) Eagles / Cowboys UNDER 51

Yeah, I’m doing it again. I’m betting the Under. We hit the Under on Monday Night pretty easily, and hopefully the same thing happens here.

I know, Unders suck. Unders are boring. We’d rather watch a shootout, we want to see Shady run for a few TD’s, Vick throw for 3 TD’s. We want a 38-31 down to the wire. Well, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Not this week.

The defenses aren’t bad. Maybe we’ve seen the Eagles blow too many big leads and give up huge plays to think this is possible, but in the last game against the Redskins they seemed to get it together. I know it was against John Beck and Rex Grossman, but still, it was a big improvement from past weeks. And I’m thinking that Andy and Juan Castillo can make some adjustments in the bye week to have them ready to take on the Cowboys offense.

Maybe the Eagles hold Murray to 223 yards?

The Eagles held the Redskins to 42 yards rushing, that’s pretty good considering the Bills ran all over them. Thisweek the Cowboys come to town with rookie DeMarco Murray coming off a huge 253 yard rushing day. Yes, it was against the Rams, who give up the most rushing yard per game in the league, but it was still impressive. I don’t think he’ll do it again. The Cowboys have already said that they plan to cut down on Murray’s workload. Yes, the Eagles are #28 in rushing, but with Trent Cole back I think that number will improve each week. I think we can keep Murray under control on Sunday.

Romo and the passing game is where we would expect to see big plays. Dez Bryant, Mile Austin and Jason Witten should get plenty of chances. But I think the Eagles can match up well. The Eagles do ok with Romo, in seven career games vs. the Eagles he has 10 TD’s and 10 INT’s.

But let’s not forget that the Dallas defense is very strong. No question about it. At FootballOutsiders.com they are #3 overall (#3 in rushing, #4 in passing), they are only giving up 67 rushing yards per game. Wow. It could be a long night for McCoy. If the Eagles expect to beat the Cowboys they’ll need to play a ball control offense. I expect the Eagles to try to model the gameplan after what the Patriots did a few weeks ago. Quick, short passes to Jackson and Maclin, use McCoy out of the backfield.

I know we all want to see fireworks, but I think Andy plays it tight this week and tries to play a low scoring game.

It’s a night game, it’s going to be cold at the Linc, like 40 degrees at kickoff. I’m saying that both defenses step up and keep it a low scoring game. How about the Eagles get a home win and stay alive in the playoff hunt. Eagles 24 Cowboys 17.

The Line: Eagles -3, O/U 51
The Pick: Eagles / Cowboys UNDER 51

Bet #2 (a.k.a The “You won’t like the Ravens when they’re mad” pick) Baltimore Ravens -13 over Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals and Ravens, two teams that were on our list last week. We went against the Cardinals at home against Pittsburgh, and they didn’t dissappoint, losing 32-20. And on Monday Night we had the Ravens/Jaguars UNDER, and that game was an UNDER lock at halftime.

Mad Ray Lewis is Dangerous Ray Lewis

Well, this week I think it will be more of the same for the Cardinals. 13 points is alot to lay, almost two touchdowns. I hate laying that many points, but I think this week is an exception. Ravens will be fired up coming off that ugly Monday Night loss at Jacksonville. They need to make a statement. This isn’t so much a testament to the Ravens defense as it is me saying the Cardinal might get shutout. I really don’t know if they can put up 10 points. The Jaguars have a similar offense to the Cardinals, and the Jags had trouble moving the ball. And how is Kevin Kolb any better than Blaine Gabbert? And Cardinals RB Beanie Wells is out. So it will be up to Kevin Kolb to withstand the pass rush without much rushing help and he has to buy enough time to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald against the #1 pass defense. Good luck with that, Kevin.

The Ravens have been able to put up points when they win. The margins of victory in their 4 wins has been 28,20,17 & 15. In two losses they only put up 13 and seven points, so it seems like it’s all or nothing for them. In their 3 homes games (all wins) they put up 35 vs. Pittsburgh, 34 vs. the Jets and 29 vs. Houston, all pretty good defenses. They lost at Tennessee in Week 2, then came into St Louis the next week and lit up the Rams 37-7. So the Ravens have proven that they can bounce back after losses. All signs point to a big day for the Ravens.

The Cardinals are ranked 30th in defensive efficiency, 31st vs. the pass and 25th vs the run. I think Flacco and ray Rice should have decent days and put enough points to cover against a bad defense. They had trouble withthe Jags, but the Jags D is leaps and bounds better than Arizona.

I won’t bore you with the Ravens defense stats, they are the best, the #1 rushing defense and the #1 passing defense. And they will shut down, possibly even shut out, the Cardinals.

It could get ugly as the Ravens look to regain possession of 1st place. I’m going to be generous to Arizona and say Ravens 27 Cardinals 6.

The Line: Ravens -13, O/U 44.5
The Pick: Ravens -13

Go get ’em, for amusement purposes only.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

  • Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
  • Email me fantasource@gmail.com
  • Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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The Degenerate: Week 7 Preview – Eagles Aren’t Dead Yet?? Yeah, We Know…

So the Eagles get a much needed win at Washington, and suddenly everyone is saying “the Eagles aren’t dead yet.” Yeah, we know that. We wrote it last week, BEFORE the Redskins game.

Read the full story

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