Tag Archive | "Cowboys"

Time’s Yours Podcast: Bring On The Cowboys

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There are two questions that must be answered in today’s podcast.

Will Lee admit the Eagles are good?

Will Spike admit Nick Foles is good?

Wait.. three questions!

What are the best two vegetables to serve at Christmas dinner?

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Time’s Yours Podcast: Everyone Sucks

The Eagles are a bad football team. We discuss just how bad, as well as get into some Sixers talk today.

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The Degenerate: Opening Night Pick; We’re baaaaack…

Ohai, welcome back. Have a seat. Can I get you a glass of Courvoisier?

Have a seat, let’s talk about the Giants/Cowboys game.

Here we are, back for another season of ‘The Degenerate‘, your favorite weekly NFL picks column. We had a good run last year (but we lost our Super Bowl pick, booo!). I had alot of fun writing the column and I’m back to do it again, so I’ll try to keep it entertaining and maybe help you all  make some money while we’re at it (but this is for amusement purposes only, of course).

To say that I’m happy that NFL football is back is an understatement. I mean the Phillies have had a nice run lately, but this was a brutal season overall. And now they are teasing us, making us think “well, they could still get that the 2nd wildcard”, but we all know it’s not happening (just kidding, it’s totally happening, and I’m all in until October 1st). Red means Go.

I know you have all been wondering, “Hey Fantasource, what have you been up to since we last talked?” Well, I‘m glad you asked. I did a few fun things this summer… but the most fun was heading up to the horse races in Saratoga (it rained, but we had a cooler full of pounders and we won a little money. All good.)


And oh yeah, I bet Paul Ryan at +1500 to win the VP nomination. A Jackson got me $300, so that was kinda cool. #TeamEddieMunster

Romney/Ryan… already stimulating the economy.

If you followed along last year you know that we had a very nice run with our NFL picks here at The Degenerate. We ended the season at 57% against the spread (not bad) and the Monday Night picks were smoking hot at 69% (9-4). You can see all of the 2011 picks documented here). I’d like to think there was some skill involved, like I didn’t just flip a coin and hope for the best (at least not most weeks). And I’m looking forward to doing it again.

But enough about the past. Let’s talk about the future. Like the immediate future. Tonight! Cowboys! Giants! NFL 2012-13 kickoff.

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “If we lose we’ll just blame the replacement refs” bet): NY Giants -3.5 OVER Dallas Cowboys

The NFL season starts on a Wednesday night this year. Yeah, kinda weird, but the Democrats are having their convention this week so the NFL moved the game from Thursday as to not interfere with President Obama’s acceptance speech. Good for them. Whatever.

The first week of the NFL season is always a little tough to handicap. You never know what teams will take a step up and be better (like the 49ers last year), and what teams will fall apart (um, I guess that would’ve been the Eagles last year). But in this one, I don’t really expect a much different look from either team compared to last year.

The Giants are coming off of another Super Bowl win (pardon me while I go throw  up). And yeah, as much as I hate the Giants you gotta tip your cap to Eli, 2 rings in 8 seasons. Good work, Peyton’s little brother. But did the Giants get any better from last year? Any worse? They have Eli, a power running game, some very good wide receivers, a killer defensive line, and rosy-cheeked Tom Coughlin. Yup, it’s pretty much same recipe as last year.

ELI!

And on the other hand, there are the Cowboys. It’s the same story for them, too. A crazy owner,  Tony Romo behind center, pretty good RB’s, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin at WR (both formidable players when healthy), and a Rob Ryan defense that can’t seem to stop the Giants from scoring (giving up 37 and 31 points to the Giants last year). Dallas tried to upgrade their defensive backfield in the offseason and if the preseason numbers are any indication, they are an improved bunch. But I think Eli and Cruz will test the rookie Claiboirne, we’ll see if he is up for the task.

I’m going with the Giants -3.5 in this one. Kinda seems like a spot where the Giants buckle down and get a big win. Laying 3.5 points in their home opener against the banged up Cowboys? I like my chances. Jason Witten is a game time decision (spleen), Miles Austin hasn’t played at all this preseason due to hamstring problems, and Dez Bryant is nursing a bum knee (oh yeah, he also slapped him mom in the face a few weeks ago). The Giants d-line should be able to get to Romo (they sacked him 6 times in their 31-17 win in Week 17 ). Unless they get a 200 yard rushing game from DeMarco Murray I just don’t see where the Cowboys offense comes from. And that will be the big difference.

“But what about the replacement refs!?!?!” Yeah, I know the refs will be the big story this weekend, but they’ll be terrible for both teams. And hopefully their bad calls even out and they don’t have an impact on the final score. But I guess time will tell.

“But what about the weather!?!” Yeah, looks like some rain tonight in North Jersey but according to latest forecasts rain shouldn’t impact the game.

How about we say Eli throws a few TD’s, the Giants d-line sacks Romo a bunch of times and the Giants grab a nice division win, 27-17.

The Line: Giants -3.5, O/U 46
The Pick: Giants -3.5
Game trends (via Covers.com): Giants are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Cowboys; OVER is 5-1 last 6 in the series, Last 12 years the Super Bowl champ from the previous season is 8-2-2 ATS in the opening game the next season.

Season Record: 0-0.

Let’s get a winner tonight and come back Friday for the rest of the Week 1 picks, including Eagles / Browns.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Twitter:
Email: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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The Degenerate: Week 16, The Friday Pick: Merry Christmas and Dallas Sucks!

“And so this is Christmas Cowboys week, I hope you have fun. The near and the dear ones, the old and the young.”
Yeah, not quite how John Lennon wrote it, but fitting nonetheless.

Another big week for Shady?

So it’s Cowboys week, and it’s ‘Win or Go Home’ version 4.0 for the Eagles. But for real this time. The Eagles are on the ropes and not only do they have to win at Dallas but they have to cheer for a Jets win over the Giants, if both of those things happen, we are still alive. Yes, I think the Jets will win, and I think the Eagles will win and I think we will be riding this thing out until the last minutes of Week 17. We’re not dead yet.

#ALLIN

I wanted to take a minute to say thanks to everyone for reading the posts this year and for listening to my Twitter nonsense. Hopefully we all made a little money this season. Not just on the picks here but on some of the games I put out myself or re-tweeted on Twitter.

We had a loser last night with the Texans -6.5 and I think we can officially write off the Texans. They could end up with a #2 seed and I’d still bet against them at home in the playoffs. What a bad showing last night. Arian Foster did all he could, but TJ Yates is not a big game QB. How can you lose to the Colts? Oh well, we dropped to 21-17 on the season with the loss.

I’m going to keep it short this week, because I know that we all have alot on our plate this week trying to wrap up Christmas week. I won’t be putting out a Monday Night Football pick this week, so this is the last post for the week.

Onto the Week 16 pick…

Bet #1: (a.k.a. The “what’s better than beating the Cowboys on Christmas Eve?” pick)

Parlay: Eagles +1.5 AND Eagles / Cowboys UNDER 50.5

Oh, for the love of God. Are you kidding me?

I love Cowboys fans, they sure are loyal to a fault. I was looking into this game trying to get a feel for how it will go, so I was perusing some Cowboys blogs to try to take the pulse of the Dallas fans and uncover some local angle that I missed, and let me tell you something about the Cowboys fans this week… they sure are confident that Santa Romo will be delivering them a win (I’m really not one to talk, I always pick the Eagles. Bleed Green, and all that).

Over at TheLandryHat.com (great name, BTW), all seven of the contributors picked the Cowboys to win. Fancy that. Here are some nuggets:

‘[Eagles] are riding high off two straight wins (against the Dolphins and Jets) and they might just be starting to buy into the “dream team” hype’ – Dream Team reference? That is so Week 4.

‘The Boys are coming off a stellar win against the Buccaneers’ – Um, buddy, you beat Tampa Bay not the 1975 Steelers.

One guy says: “Rob Ryan better think of something to stop Vick”. You mean, unlike the last time they played? But he still picks the Boys to win by 3.

I love this one: “Michael Vick will probably get hurt.” So this cat is basing his prediction on Vick getting hurt? Ha ha. Stay classy, Dallas.

Jason Babin is closing in on the sack record.

And to a man, they all are predicting a big offensive game from the Cowboys, 34/31/34/38/30 points? Did I miss something, did RB Felix Jones get miraculously healed this week, or did the Cowboys sign 1997 Barry Sanders? They have Tony Romo, a decent slew of WR’s and at RB they have either a very banged up Felix Jones, or newly-signed Sammy Morris (or some dude named Chauncey Washington).

So Dallas fans are coming in all pumped up and ready for revenge. Ok, I get that. We whooped their ass in Week 8 and they probably couldn’t live with themselves if they got slapped around at home on Christmas Eve. That Week 8 win was probably the most fun game to watch all season. Sunday night national TV beatdown of the Cowboys. Good stuff.

This week I am going to say the Eagles win and game stays under 50.5, yup it’s a Christmas Eve parlay. Why not? Hey it’s Saturday night, it’s Christmas Eve, and you know you’ll be watching the game. You’ll probably be drinking a few beers, hanging with your Uncle Dave who can’t stop telling you about the time he beat up a Cowboys fan in the 700 Level in 1979 (“He had the balls to wear a Tony Dorsett jersey in the Vet, what was I supposed to do?”). I love the holidays.

And in case you don’t know, a parlay is a bet where you make two (or more) bets and if they all win then you win your bet, in this case you would parlay the Eagles +1.5 and UNDER 50.5 and this bet will get you a payout of around 2.5 times your bet (payout depends on the individual wager odds). But if either end of the parlay loses, you lose your bet, so there is a risk associated with the reward.  Here’s a good parlay calculator if you want to find out more.

Let's hope the Eagles give us a Merry Christmas.

The big unknown this week is if the Giants win in the early game then the Eagles will be eliminated from the playoff picture. But I think in either case (Giants win or lose) the Eagles will come to play in Dallas.

These teams are very similar, Eagles are 11th in offense, 12th in defense, Dallas is 9th in offense, 15th in defense. But I think the X factor in this game is the running game. Dallas is without rookie sensation DeMarco Murray (OUT) and Felix Jones is banged up pretty good with a hamstring injury. Jones missed practice this week and is a game-time decision (the Cowboys say he will play, but who knows how healthy he will be). Sammy Morris is on stand-by to handle the rushing duties in case Jones can’t go.

That plays into the Eagles favor, it lets them put more focus on Romo and the passing game. The Eagles do ok with Romo, in eight career games vs. the Eagles he has 11 TD’s and 11 INT’s. Yeah, Tony is playing great ball the past two weeks, and is having a pretty good season. But the Eagles are 11th vs. the pass, and #1 pass rushing team in the NFL (Dallas has the #10 ranked pass protection). If Babin and the boys can pressure Romo, I don’t see him having a very productive day. And with no running game to fall back on, it could be trouble for the Cowboys. Asante Samuel is out and that could hurt, but I think the Eagles will be ok in the defensive backfield (DRC gets the start in place of Asante? Oh boy).

The Eagles on offense should just be Shady all day, he got 185 yards rushing in the first meeting. Why change what works. Dallas is middle of the league in rush defense (16th overall). Brandon Jacobs got 101 yards and 2 TD’s in the Giants win in Dallas two weeks ago. Just give the ball to Shady!

Shady as a running threat will open up the game for Mike Vick. I think Vick will have a good game (250 yards passing, 2 TDs?), DeMarcus Ware is hurting but should play but anything less than 100% of DeMarcus Ware is a good thing for opponents.

It’s Christmas Eve and I think the fat man will give you something to smile about, no not Santa Claus, Andy Reid. How about the Eagles continue where they left off in Week 8 and knock off the Cowboys 24-20.

Injuries:
Eagles: CB Asante Samuel is  OUT.
Cowboys: RB Felix Jones is game time decision but should play. LB DeMarcus Ware is probable and should play.

The Line: Cowboys -1.5, O/U 50.5
The Pick: Parlay: Eagles +1.5 / UNDER 50.5

Merry Christmas!!

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 21-17. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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The Degenerate: Week 16 Preview and Thursday Pick; #ALLIN

It’s Week 16, this crazy season is almost over, but not until the Eagles make us sweat it out a little longer.

2011 has been quite a ride for Eagles fans

This is it, another week where the Eagles can be eliminated from playoff contention before they even kickoff their game. Let’s break down the scenarios (not like you haven’t already heard this a hundred times this week):

Eagles are eliminated if:

  • Giants beat Jets in the 1pm game OR Eagles lose to Cowboys

Eagles stay alive if:

  • Jets beat Giants AND Eagles beat Cowboys

And if we stay alive, then it all comes down to Week 17, Giants at Dallas and we will be cheering for the Giants like we’ve never cheered for the Giants before. I was thinking the other day, have Eagles fans ever cheered for the Giants? Maybe in that Super Bowl against the undefeated Patriots, but that’s probably it.

Jets are three point favorites this week, so Vegas thinks that they can pull it off. Let’s hope the bookies are right this time.

#ALLIN

Let’s check on the Week 15 picks, take a first look at the Eagles / Dallas game and make a pick in the Thursday night Colts/Texans matchup…

Week 15 Revisited

3-0, how about that! We had a good weekend. Thursday was a pretty easy win. We were on Atlanta -12.5, they came out and blew the doors off Jacksonville 41-14. No sweat. That’s the kind of game I like. Over by halftime.

3-0? I can get used to that.

Sunday was the big match up of the week, Tebow vs. Brady. I had a feeling that the Patriots would be able to score on the Broncos, and they sure did. But Tebow was able to draw first blood and jump out to a 17-6 but the Patriots were able to pull ahead and take a 27-16 lead into halftime.

A few more scores in the 2nd half and the Patriots cruised to a 41-23 win. Another easy winner, 18 point win laying seven. Nice.

Monday night was just us playing the statistics. We had two of the top defenses, an injured QB and another QB who was not the guy to light up the scoreboard.

Ben Roethlisberger played, but he didn’t look healthy. Hobbling around, he threw a couple of early interceptions to kill Steeler drives.

But the 49ers couldn’t get into the endzone either. Alex Smith turned two touchdown drives into two fieldgoal drives, and I couldn’t be happier. 6-0 at half, 13-3 after three quarters, this one never even sniffed 30 points. And the UNDER 38 got there easy.

Let’s hope we can keep the momentum going this week and take a hot streak into the postseason.

Week 15 Hometown Preview: Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Opening Line: Cowboys -3, O/U 50.5
Current Line: Cowboys -2, O/U 50.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Eagles: 10-3 OVER in last 13 road games; Cowboys: 12-4 OVER in last 16 home games.

No caption needed, the picture speaks for itself.

This line is what you would expect. Opened as Dallas -3, so pretty much a pick ‘em with Dallas getting a bump for homefield. The early money came in on the Eagles, I guess a 45-19 beatdown of the Jets is more impressive than the Cowboys 31-15 win at Tampa Bay.

We all know what happened last time these guys played in Week 6. It was one of the first ‘do-or-die’ weeks if the Eagles season. The Eagles were a 3 point favorite at home and came away with an impressive 34-7 win. Oh by the way, we had the UNDER in that one (winner).

Dallas is 5-2 ATS at home this season, but 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall this season. The Eagles are 2-0 ATS and SU as road dogs this season. And this game is the definition of ‘must win’ for them this week.

The total really sticks out to me on this one, 50.5? That seems high. Two top 15 defenses, neither team really known to put up many points (I know the Eagles scored 45 last week, but that was out of the ordinary).

I expect the Eagles to play it conservative, and use LeSean McCoy as much as possible. and with Brent Celek coming on strong the past few weeks, we could continue to see him used in a short passing game. Dallas could be without RB Felix Jones, so that takes away a big part of their offense. Can Romo put up points against the reborn Eagles defense? I don’t think so.

Right now, I’m leaning Eagles plus the points and UNDER. Well come back tomorrow and break it all down and make a pick. But for now, let’s move on to the Thursday night game…

Thursday Night Football

TNF Bet #1: (a.k.a the “Yeah, the Colts won, but they still stink” pick): Texans -6.5 over Colts

What a crappy season for the Colts. They finally got win #1 last week, and it only took them 14 games. Their one potent offense has turned impotent (#29th overall), #32 (last) in overall team efficiency and #32 in defensive efficiency. To put it bluntly, the Colts suck this season.

It's been a rough season for Colts fans

We’ve had to handicap some bad teams this year (Rams, Jaguars, Vikings) but the Colts might take the prize.

I think the Jaguars are worse on offense (but not by much), and maybe you can argue that the Tampa or Minnesota is worse on defense, but the Colts have the unique combination of a crappy offense and a crappy defense.

The Indy offense is managing a paltry 283 total yards per game, and only putting up 15.1 points per game. That’s not going to win many games (as they’ve proven this year). The Texans are 10-4 and still jockeying for position in the playoffs, so they aren’t on cruise control yet. They had a bad loss last week at home against Carolina, after running off 7 straight wins. I don’t think the Texans will have any problems moving the ball tonight and that’s why I’m going with Houston -6.5.

Houston doesn’t have Matt Schaub, and they won’t have Andre Johnson, but they do have a pretty fierce combination of running backs, so expect to see alot of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. The Colts are giving up 138 rushing yards per game, and Houston is anked #2 in rushing yards per game at 151. So yeah, expect a big day from Foster. Congratulations to you if you are starting him in fantasy this week.

The only question mark for the Texans is QB TJ Yates. He’s had 3 starts so far, one good, one bad, and one so-so. I think this week he will be able to take advantage of the weak Colts defense and move the ball. I still expect the Texans to rely mainly on the run, but Yates should be able to move the ball when he needs to. As long as he doesn’t try to do too much, we should be ok laying 6.5.

Arian Foster should have a big night

The Colts offense is pathetic. Yeah, there is no other word to describe it. 15 points per game? 283 yards of total offense. Not good. Dan Orlovsky is in at QB now, he replaced Curtis Painter a few weeks ago. Last week in the big win over Tennessee he managed… 115 yard passing. So I think the Colts have decided to not let him throw the ball. Could be a smart move. Like with the Texans, I think on the Indy side of the ball we will see alot of running plays as well. Donald Brown had a breakout game last week, 161 yard rushing and a TD. But that was his only game with over 80 yard rushing this season.

The Houston defense is pretty good. #7 in overall defensive efficiency (#4 v. pass, #12 v. rush) and I think they will be able to shut down the Colts offense, not that it’s a big challenge.

Houston is finally in a position to control it’s own destiny, and after years of playing second fiddle to the Colts in the AFC South they can finally bully them around and move closer to the chance at a bye week in the first round.

The Texans won the first matchup in Week 1, 34-7, and they will be rady for a season sweep.

How about both teams keep it on the ground, but only the Texans have success moving the ball. Houston finally gets revenge on big brother and comes away with a win, Texans 27-10.

The Line: Texans -6.5 O/U 40.5
The Pick: Texans -6.5
Game trends (via Covers.com): 10-3 OVER in the last 13 meetings. HOU 6-1-1 ATS last 8 games this season.

 

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 21-16. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

 

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Time’s Yours Podcast: The Eagles, 8-8 For Excellence

Two important things happened with yesterday’s Eagles win over the Dolphins.

First, they started off 1-0 in the “new season” that Asante Samuel claimed started yesterday.

Second, Lee Russakoff realized that he doesn’t want to lose Andy Reid. I couldn’t believe my ears.

We talk about those things, what the real chances are that the Eagles wind up in the playoffs, and whether signing Michael Vick was a good idea.

Follow Lee Russakoff on Twitter @LeeRussakoff

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The Degenerate: Week 12 – Thanksgiving Picks, The Turkey Day Threesome

It’s Thanksgiving week. You know, the week when you get sloppy drunk with old high school friends (“OH MY GOD WE SHOULD TOTALLY HANG OUT MORE!”), you pretend to start Christmas shopping before giving up after an hour, and… FOOTBALL!

Can we wrap this up? I have money on the Cowboys game.

Growing up, Thanksgiving day football was always a mess (except 1989 when the Eagles shut out the Cowboys 27-0, a.k.a Bounty Bowl). Detroit would play, Barry Sanders would get 175 yards rushing and they would still lose. Then we had to sit through a Dallas Cowboys game. No matter how much I hate the Cowboys, I always watched every play (mainly for gambling or fantasy football purposes, but still). And then, a few years ago, the greatest invention ever was created, the Thursday Night Thanksgiving game. Why did it take so long? Thanksgiving is perfect for a night game. The day is done, the food is gone, your family has all gone their separate ways, your stomach is bloated and you want nothing else than to sit in the recliner and watch football. Well, the NFL felt your pain and a few years ago they started the Thanksgiving night game. God Bless the NFL.

This year the Thanksgiving matchups are actually pretty decent. Miami at Dallas looks ugly on paper, but the Dolphins aren’t playing too bad lately. I could see a lot of points in this one.

Green Bay at Detroit? Nice. We finally have a Detroit Thanksgiving game that is worth a crap. This one should be a battle, the Packers are trying to keep their unbeaten season alive and the Lions are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. I’m actually looking forward to this one.

The night game is San Francisco at Baltimore. The Harbaugh Bowl, or whatever. Honestly, I’m already sick of the hype on this one. We get it, the coaches are brothers. Their mom said she is hoping for a tie. Whatever. Two great defenses are banging heads, this one should be a fight.

There are three great games on tap for Thursday, and guess what sports fans? I’m making a pick in all of them. Why not? I’m 13-11 on the season. I slugged through last weekend at 1-2. I’ve been pretty picky about my selections, and it’s only gotten me to two games over .500. Maybe shooting from the hip will get us some luck. I’ll call it “The Three Course Thanksgiving Cornucopia”.

So, here we go with the TCTC, as always this is for amusement purposes only. You can use this as your guide when making those $5 bets with your Uncle Frank. I’m going to breakdown the three games quickly since I know we all have better things to do today…

Bet #1: (a.k.a The “If Cam Newton can put up 35 points on Detroit…” pick) Green Bay -6.5 over Detroit

80 years and finally a good matchup.

I know, the cool thing to say is “yeah, I think Detroit knocks off the Packers and gives them their first loss.” But I don’t think it’s going to happen. I expect another big game from Aaron Rogers and company. Green Bay has been favored by less than a TD four times this season, covering all four games. They’re averaging 35 points per game so far this season.

The Detroit defense is good, I know that. But last week they sure didn’t look like it, giving up 35 points to Cam Newton and the Panthers. Could they have been looking ahead to this game? Probably. But I think the Packers are focused on the undefeated season, and this is a major hurdle, so they will be ready. Aaron Rogers is locked in right now, he will be tough to stop.

Detroit started the season 5-0, but have only gone 2-3 since then. Matt Stafford is hurting, but he sure didn’t look like it on Sunday, throwing five TD passes. They’re missing their #1 RB, but fill-in Kevin Smith had a good game last week. But I’m worried more about the defense. How can they give up 35 points to Carolina?

It could be a long day for the Lions. Vegas sets the Total at 56 points, so they’re looking for around a 31-24 game. I think it will be more lopsided. How about Aaron Rogers and Jordy Nelson keep rolling and the Packers win 38-21.

Bet #2 (a.k.a The “At least you aren’t picking the Cowboys” pick) Dallas / Miami OVER 44

Who knew Miami fans were so gangsta?

Miami has shut down the last three teams they have played. KC scored three, Washington scored nine and Buffalo scored eight. But take look at those teams, none of them have been playing well lately.

Yeah, Washington almost beat Dallas last week, but that was pretty much the Redskins’ Super Bowl. They gave Dallas all they could and still couldn’t get it done.

Dallas has put up 20+ in four of the last five games, they seem like a different team with DeMarco Murray in the backfield. Miami is averaging 29 points the last 3 games, ever since Reggie Bush remembered he was a Heisman winner. Both offenses are moving the ball well.

And playing on a short week, I’d give the advantage to the offense.

Add to that Miami has not gone OVER at all this season, eight UNDERs, one Push. All streaks end at some point, and I think this one ends this week. DeMarco Murray and the Dallas WR/TE’s (Bryant, Robinson, Witten) should have big days. As much as I would like to see the Cowboys lose to help the Eagles, I don’t see it happening. Romo and Murray get Dallas a 34-20 win.

Bet #3 (a.k.a The “Home cooking always tastes better” pick) Baltimore -3 over San Francisco

I know, I know, I said I’d never put my money on Joe Flaccid. But in this one, I’m putting my money on Joe Flaccid (but never again, I swear 😉 ).

Flacco is not a great QB, I know that. But I’m looking for less Flacco and more Ray Rice in this one.

Could be a big night for Ray Rice

Both defenses are solid (San Fran is #3, Baltimore is #1), and both offenses are average (San Fran is #19, Baltimore #21). Seems like a recipe for a low scoring game, Vegas set the total at 38 points.

This one comes down to two things for me: 1) San Francisco is coming off of a battle against the Giants on Sunday that pretty much came down to the last play, and 2) San Francisco is travelling across the country on a short week to play in a game that has been pretty hyped up.

San Francisco is a young team, I think the hype around this game could be distracting for them. Baltimore is at home, and they are a veteran team. I don’t think Ray Lewis, Ray Rice and Ed Reed will let the team lose focus on this one. Baltimore is battling the Steelers for the lead in the AFC Central, while the 49ers have already wrapped up the NFC West. This isn’t a great spot for the 49ers.

The 49ers are 9-0-1 vs. the spread, that is unconscious. It can’t keep up and I think this is the week they finally lose a game vs. the pointspread.

So, we have a veteran team at home, on a short week against a young, hot team off a tough win travelling cross country. I think Baltimore settles in and knocks off the 49ers, and it might not even be that close. I’m saying Ravens 27-10.

Let’s hope we sweep the board on Thursday and celebrate Turkey day with some winners.

*No pick from me on the Birds game. Patriots are laying 4 right now, no Over/Under posted yet. I’ll just sit back and hope for the best. I’m still ALL IN, but if they can manage to pull this one out? Oh boy, the hype machine starts up all over again.

I’ll be back next week with a full slate of posts. But for now, enjoy the holiday weekend!

 

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 13-11. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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The Degenerate: Week 9, The Friday Pick. How ‘Bout Them Cowboys!

Here we are, Friday. Time for some picks. Last week was a bit rough, 1-2 with a tough loss on the Chargers on Monday night to end the week. But no worries, we’ll get ’em this week.  We’re still 10-6 on the season (see all the picks here), and 9-4 over the past four weeks.

The Eagles are playing on Monday night this week, so I’ll be making that pick in my Monday Night Football column on Monday (have I said Monday enough?). But we still have a full slate of games to choose from on Sunday. We’re looking at seven games with a line of seven points of higher, last week was the week of the underdog (three double-digit dogs covered last week), will this be the week of the blowouts? We’ll see.

There is no line posted on the Rams/Cardinals game yet because of injuries to Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb. That game could be the worst game of the season, and I have no interest in handicapping a game between two terrible teams using backup QB’s. John Skelton vs. AJ Feeley? No thanks.

There were a few game I looked at, but decided not to make a play on…

Sorry Tim, you aren't cutting it.

Raiders -8′ over Broncos – Tebow sucks. There, I said it. I’m sure he’s a good guy but as an NFL QB, he just isn’t ready yet. Last week the Broncos got whooped 45-10 at home by Detroit, now they travel to Oakland. The Raiders are good and they should cover this line. This is a big rivalry, so the Raiders will have no issues with whopping up on the Broncos. But I hesitated for a few reasons. 1) Darren McFadden is hurting and probably won’t play. He’s been a bit of a bust this season, but he’s their #1 back. 2) Carson Palmer hasn’t proven that he is ready to be a QB again. He stunk in his Raiders debut vs. the Chiefs, throwing three INT’s. I don’t want to lay 8′ to find out that Carson Palmer is washed up. I’d lean to the Raiders, mainly because I don’t know how the Broncos will score any points. But I’m passing on making this a Friday pick.

49ers -4’ over Redskins – This line screams ‘Bet the 49ers!’ The Redskins got shutout against Buffalo last week, and the Bills have a mediocre defense. Now the big, bad 49ers defense is coming to town, how will John Beck lead this team to any scores? Santana Moss is out so there is no real pass threat. San Francisco is good, 5-2 with a 3 game lead in the NFC West. The Redskins are 3-4, but they’ve lost three in a row. I would go with the 49ers at any line under 6 points, but traveling East to play the early game is never a good position to bet on. I would think the 49ers can win this one like 27-10, but I’ll pass.

Maybe a Raiders/49ers ‘Bay Area’ teaser would be a decent play. But as individual bets, I’m going to pass on both. But I did find one game that  I thought had some value on Sunday. And in Monday’s post I’ll make a pick on the Eagles / Bears MNF matchup. On to the Friday Pick…

Bet #1 (The “You’re telling me I gotta cheer for the Cowboys?” pick) Dallas Cowboys -11.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks

Get up, Romo. You gotta win us some money!

I know, I know, screw the Cowboys. I’m with you, believe me. But let’s step back and look at this game without our Green and White glasses on. Dallas isn’t a bad team. They have a pretty good defense (maybe that defense didn’t show up last week, but it’s still good) and they have good skill position players. They have DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones (questionable) running the ball. And Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten catching the ball. Yeah, Tony Romo isn’t the best, but he’s pretty good and should be fine against the Seattle pass defense. It’s those close games down to the wire where he seems to crap the bed. And I don’t think this one will be close.

But let’s not bury the lede here, Seattle isn’t very good and that’s why I’m picking this game. They are 2-5. One win against Arizona (13-10) and a “how did they pull that off?” 36-25 upset over the Giants in the Meadowlands (Giants were our pick in that game in Week 5, so I remember it well). They have some bad losses @Cleveland (6-3), vs. Cincinnati (34-12), @Pittsburgh (24-0) and @San Francisco (34-17). They also lost a home game to Atlanta 30-28, but they were losing that game by 20 in the 3rd quarter and staged a miracle comeback that came up short at the end. I think the Cowboys will continue the trend and get a big win at home over the Seahawks.

But let’s look at the numbers to see why I think that:

Seattle offense vs. Dallas defense

The Cowboys should get to Tavaris this Sunday

Seattle cannot score. They’re putting up 15.6 points per game (27th out of 32). Their offense is sluggish, and they have no running game (to put it lightly). 284 total yards per game (31st), 206.3 pass yards per game (25th), 77.7 rushing yards per game (31st). FootballOutsiders.com has Seattle as #29th in offensive efficiency, #23 in passing, #31 in rushing. Not good.

Dallas defense is pretty good. I know they got smoked by the Eagles last week, but let’s be honest, Vick and Shady McCoy are leaps and bounds better than Tavaris Jackson (or Charlie Whitehurst) and Marshawn Lynch. Cowboys are 8th in Overall Defensive Efficiency, #10 in Rush, #10 in Pass. Seattle’s young offensive line has allowed the most sacks in the NFL (28). DeMarcus Ware could be in for a big day.

Missing Sean Lee could be an issue for the Cowboys D, but the lack of a running threat from Seattle and a whole week of preparation will help make up for Lee’s absence. Seattle has a young offensive line that could be exploited by the Cowboys pass rush. It could be a tough day for whoever the Seahawks put behind center. It looks like Tavaris Jackson will be starting. He was hurt last week and was supposed to sit but came in after Charlie Whitehurst started poorly, Jackson put up 323 yard passing against Cincinnati. Not a bad performance, we’ll see if he can do it again against that Cowboys pass rush.

Dallas Offense vs. Seattle Defense
Dallas is putting up almost 400 yards per game, good for 8th in the NFL. They’re near the top in passing with 294 yards per game (7th). Surprisingly, their rushing stats aren’t very good, 15th overall in rush yards per game and 29th on FootballOutsiders.com rushing efficiency. But the addition of DeMarco Murray is really paying off. Even last week vs. the Eagles Murray managed 9 yards a carry. He didn’t get much work because they fell behind so quickly they had to go right to the passing attack to try to make up the deficit but when he got the ball he made the most of it. Murray should get a good number of touches this week.

Fantasource, in his Sunday attire this week.

Seattle does have a good rush defense (#3), but not much of a pass defense (#29). The Cowboys counter with the #5 offensive line/pass protection, but are low ranked (#21) in run blocking. So I’m thinking a big day from Tony Romo (yeah, I think he has it in him), Miles Austin and Dez Bryant.

The intangibles are also pointing to the Cowboys. Dallas is coming home off of a bad loss, now they’re playing a weaker team, and it’s a must win game. Dallas is still very much alive in the NFC East division race. This is a good spot for the Cowboys to get a comfortable win. Seattle is having issues with injuries (QB Tavaris Jackson is hurting) and team chemistry (RB Marshawn Lynch was seen yelling at coaches last week after another bad game). And Seattle has put up 2 sub-par offensive performances in a row (3 points against Cleveland, 12 points against Cincinnati). I see the Cowboys letting out some frustration vs. Seattle.

I could name 10 things I’d rather do than cheer for the Cowboys, but this week you may as well call me Jerry Jones Jr. The Cowboys are coming home off of a bad loss, they are playing a below average opponent and they are in a must-win spot. I think the Cowboys get it done on Sunday and cover the 11.5 point line.

How about a final of Cowboys 31 Seahawks 10.

The Line: Cowboys -11.5, O/U 44.5
The Pick: Cowboys -11.5

So there you go. Dallas over Seattle. Go put on your Troy Aikman jersey and root for America’s Team (sorry, I promise I won’t make you cheer for the Cowboys again).

Coming on Monday, the Eagles / Bears pick. Good luck this weekend!

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 10-6. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

  • Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
  • Email me fantasource@gmail.com
  • Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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Time’s Yours Podcast: The Eagles Dismantle The Cowboys

My good friend Lee Russakoff has been Mr. Negative about the Eagles the last few weeks.

After the Eagles complete and total domination of the Cowboys last night, the thought of them making the playoffs is a little bit easier to swallow. Well, for most people. Let’s see if Lee’s with us.

We talk Vick at his best, McCoy being the best, Castillo’s defense coming alive and how they can win the division.

Click here and subscribe to Time’s Yours on iTunes.

Follow Lee Russakoff on Twitter @LeeRussakoff.

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