Tag Archive | "Chargers"

Time’s Yours Podcast: Eagles, Chargers And COLIN KAEPERNICK?!

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CHIP KELLY IS A GENIUS!

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WAIT A MINUTE WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED?!

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We talk about the Eagles loss to the Chargers, Nate Allen, Michael Vick’s play, Chip Kelly’s time management, and why the hell they don’t have Colin Kaepernick if they had the chance.

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The Degenerate: Monday Night Pick: Can I Get A Winner, Please?

Well, I won my fantasy games this weekend. So that’s kinda cool.

Thanks to the defense, we stayed in that game

Ok, so this weekend was not the start I expected to the 2012 gambling season. We started 0-2 and they weren’t even close. I know the Eagles pulled out a 4th quarter shocker and beat the Browns on a last minute drive but they were laying 9.5. So it wasn’t even close to sniffing a cover in the 4th quarter. And the penalties?! Oh lord, the penalties. Hopefully they review the rulebook in practice this week, I’m not sure if our guys know what they can and can’t do.

On the bright side, the Juan Castillo defense really put the screws to Brandon Weeden. But I think if we were playing against a half-decent QB (Colt McCoy?) we probably would have lost that one. But you know what, a win is a win and in Week 13 when we are fighting for the division lead we won’t remember how bad we looked yesterday. Looking forward to week 2 and it doesn’t get any easier, Baldymoore is coming to town. Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin. If we play sloppy like yesterday then those guys will beat us. It’s gonna be a tough one. No line yet, but it should be close to a pick ’em depending on how Baltimore looks on Monday Night.

And speaking of Monday night, we have a doubleheader tonight, Bengals at Ravens and Chargers at Raiders. But only one game looks like a value, the Chargers at Raiders, so let’s get into that one…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “10pm start? I’ll be asleep by halftime” bet): Oakland Raiders -1 over San Diego Chargers

Raiders fans. They are one of a kind.

I actually like the Raiders to make some noise this year. In my Saturday column I had them picked to win the AFC West. I think that the AFC West could be a battle. All 4 teams are pretty good, but no team stands out from the rest (although Denver looked pretty good last night).

The Chargers lost Vincent Jackson to free agency, and will probably not have Ryan Matthews tonight. So it will be Phillip Rivers looking to Antonio Gates for his offense tonight.  Last season, the Raiders lost in Week 17 to the Chargers at home, and that loss knocked them out of the playoffs race. I think they will remember that. The Raiders have a new GM, and a new Head Coach and are looking to (new and improved!) Carson Palmer to continue where he left off last season, in that Week 17 loss he threw for 417 yards.

The Raiders also get Darren McFadden back, he has been banged up his whole career and missed half the season last year with a foot injury. The Raiders should be able to move the ball with Palmer and McFadden. But their defense is another story.

The Raiders defense was not good last season, to put it kindly. 27th in defensive efficiency at Football Outsiders. But I think they use the home field advantage (one of the best in the NFL) and the arm of Carson Palmer version 2.0 and get a big opening win against a division rival. Could be high scoring, but I’ll stay away from the total and just take the Raiders.

How about Oakland starts fresh with a 30-20 win at home.

And oh yeah, I can’t forget that Phillip Rivers cost me money last year. It was Halloween Night, Chargers were lining up for a FG to win (and push -3) and he muffs the hold? I haven’t forgotten about that, Phil. Go Raiders!

The Line: Oakland Raiders -1, O/U 47
The Pick: Raiders -1
Game trends (via Covers.com): Oakland is 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Chargers; OVER is 5-0 last 5 in Oakland in this series.

Let’s get a winner! (I really need one)

Season Record: 0-2 (booooo!)

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Twitter:
Email: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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The Degenerate: Week 13, Monday Night – Let’s This Try Again

Rough loss on Sunday with the Bears. Matt Forte went down early in the game and the Bears never seemed to get their bearings. I said the Bears would win 24-10, well I got the ten points part right. Bears lose 10-3. The Bears D did what they needed to but the offense was invisible. 181 total yards? Ouch. Add that loss to the Thursday night Eagles loss and we’re looking at 0-2 going into Monday Night. But I’m riding a nice Monday Night streak this season, 7-3 so far, and three straight MNF winners. But the NFL didn’t do me any favors with this matchup.

San Diego visits Jacksonville. The Chargers are three point favorites on the road, the total is 39.

This could be a rough night for Rivers

This matchup is very hard to break down. The Chargers are basically the Eagles of the AFC. They came into the season with high expectations, and then totally crapped the bed. They were 10-1 to win the Super Bowl and -1000 to win the AFC West. Now they’re 4-7, in last place in the AFC West and in the grips of a six game losing streak. Not a good run for Norv Turner and the boys. And to top it all off, reports are circulating that Norv is going to be fired at the end of the season, and guess who is going to replace him? Andy Reid. Yeah, it’s gotta be true. The internet never lies.

Firing your coach? ‘Been there, done that’, says Jacksonville. Not only was HC Jack DelRio fired last week, the Jaguars were sold. Beat that, Chargers.

So here we are. One team in the midst of it’s longest losing streak in 10 years, and another with a new coach, and a new owner. Both teams are well under .500, and the home team is having trouble selling out the game. Nice. Can’t wait for this one.

I don’t know who is watching this game tonight. Maybe some Chargers fans, some Jags fans, gamblers and anyone with any of these guys in fantasy football. But here I am, trying to handicap this game and give you a winner. Fun job, isn’t it? But you know what, I do have a pick, but first let’s break down the combatants.

MJD will be the key for the Jags tonight

Like I said earlier, San Diego is a hot mess. 4-7 record, six game losing streak, under-performing all season and a coach on the hot seat. But they are actually still alive for the AFC West title if they can get a win. They’d only be two games back of the leaders if they can pull this out. So they still have some motivation to get this done.

Jacksonville has a new (interim) head coach, DC Mel Tucker takes over for the rest of the season. He got the job for good reason, his Jags defense is #2 in defensive efficiency, behind only the Ravens. So, how can a team with such a great defense be 3-8? The problem with the Jaguars is offense, or lack of it. The Jags come into this game averaging a league-low 12.5 points per game, and they have only scored over 17 points once this season. They’re ranked last (32nd) in passing, and 22nd in rushing. Going up against a Charger defense that is 30th overall.

So we have a terrible offense going up against a terrible defense. Not sure who wins that matchup, but it’s not the TV viewers.

The one bright spot on the Jags offense is RB Maurice Jones-Drew. He is tied for first with Shady McCoy averaging 95.4 rushing yards per game. And if the Jaguars want to win this one, they’re going to stick to the ground game with MJD.

It's been a rough year for Norv

When the Chargers have the ball they’ll have their work cut out for them. Jacksonville defense is good. Very good. Coming into the game they have the 2nd overall defense (5th against the pass, 3rd against the rush). And they are allowing only allowing 18.2 points per game.

San Diego has had trouble scoring lately, only once in their last 6 games have they scored over 21 points. QB Phillip Rivers has not been playing up to his past stats. Only once this season has he thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game. I don’t see him doing too much against this tough Jaguars defense. He should play ok, but not light up the scoreboard.

The Jaguars defense should shut down the Chargers, or at least limit their scoring ability. The Jags on offense should be able to move the ball with MJD and kill some clock in the process. I don’t see QB Blaine Gabbert being be much of a factor but he won’t really need to be. It’s all MJD and the Jags defense.

Add all that together and I’m going with UNDER 39 in this one.

Some trends I found on Covers.com point to the UNDER also:

  • Jags 10-1 UNDER this season
  • Chargers: 10-4 UNDER in their last 14 games on grass
  • Chargers: 20-2 in their last 22 games in December

I think that the Jaguars defense will be playing extra fired up now that their guy is in the top seat. MJD made a comment that practices this week were extra intense, and the new coach has the team focused and practicing sharp. But on the other hand, the Chargers continue to struggle. I’ve learned my lesson from the Eagles, sometimes a team is just not as good as you want them to be.

San Diego has to travel east to play against a great defense. It’s going to be a sluggish game. I think the Jaguars defense is the difference. I’ll still give San Diego the win, since the Chargers dominate in December, I think Phillip Rivers will find a way to pull it out and snap the six game losing streak, but it’s not going to be easy.

How about Chargers win 20-14.

The Line: San Diego Chargers -3, O/U 39
Ths Pick: UNDER 39

Let’s recover from a bad weekend and get this one.

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 16-14. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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The Degenerate: Week 10 Preview and Thursday Pick, A New Day

My Week 9 picks went 0-2, my alma mater is embroiled in the ugliest and most sickening scandal in NCAA history, and the Birds blew a 4th quarter lead and lost to the Bears on Monday night, probably ending any chances they had at a playoff run. So, how was your weekend?

Wow, Fantasource did not have a good five days.

What a week.

I spoke my piece on the Penn State issue yesterday. Check it out if you want to know my thoughts from an Alumni point of view. Thanks to Spike for letting me post it, I owe him an Orange Julius.

But let’s move on from the Penn State scandal. Not to mitigate the situation, or downplay it in any way, but I’m going to make this post a ‘Paterno-Free Zone’ this week. So, if you are looking to read something other than the 24/7 Penn State chatter, please stick around. I have some hot chocolate and cookies for you.

This week we start with the NFL Thursday night games. Great news for NFL fans (at least those of us with NFL Network), we get one more night of prime-time NFL action. And one more night of gambling (for amusement purposes only, as we all know). So this week, and all weeks going forward with a Thursday night game, we will do a review of the previous weeks picks, an Eagles preview, and the Thursday night pick.

Let’s get on with the show…

Week 9 Revisited

We'll Get 'Em This Week

0-2 last weekend. Rough loss on the Cowboys -11.5’ and an even tougher loss with the Eagles UNDER 47.5. Both games were close and could have been winners as easily as they were losers. Oh well, we need to regroup in Week 10 and get some winners.

We dropped to 10-8 on the season, still above .500 but we need to get back on the winning track. Let’s review last weeks picks…

Cowboys -11.5 over Seahawks

This game went pretty much as I thought, withthe exception of the Seattle rushing game. Marshawn Lunch decided to show up and put up 135 yards and a TD.

Dallas started well, but came away with two FGs in the 1st quarter when they should have had twp TD’s. Dallas had a 17 point lead in the 4th quarter but gave up a TD with six minutes left and only got away with a 10 point win, 23-13. Not enough to cover the 11.5. Loss

Eagles / Bears UNDER 47.5

We were sure looking good in this game, Chicago was up 10-0 with two minutes left in the half and then the wheels came off. The Eagles drove down and got a field goal, 10-3. Ok not bad. Still looking good for the under. Chicago gets the ball, and proceeds to fumble the ball and the Eagles run it in for a TD. 10-10. Not great but the Under is still looking ok. Then with a minute left in the half, DeSean Jackson fumbles a punt inside the 20, Dallas stuffs it in for a TD, 17-10 at half. What? 17 points in two minutes? Never good for the Under.

In the 3rd quarter we got two more rushing TD’s from the Eagles and we were pretty much done. Then the Eagles went ahead and blew a 4th quarter lead and lost the game. The icing on the cake. Chicago came into the Linc and got a 30-24 win. Loss.

Week 10 Hometown Preview: Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals

Opening Line: No Line posted
Current Line: No Line posted
Game Trends (via Covers.com):

Limber up, John. It's going to be a long day.

I looked every where for a line on this game and found nothing. No one wants to put up a number yet. The problem is that no one knows which QB is playing for the Cardinals. Kevin Kolb is hurt and is probably not going to play. That leaves the QB duties to John Skelton. Yup, good old John Skelton coming into the Linc.

If it was up to me, I would put this at Eagles -9, O/U of 48, but who knows what it will be. I’d expect to see a line posted sometime Thursday when the Cardinals decide on their starting QB.

Coming off of a loss to the Bears, you have to think the Eagles will come out fired up and ready to play.

Arizona is not a good team. 30th ranked in overall team efficiency. 27th on offense, 30th on defense. Yeah, they’re going to get lit up. The one bright spot for the Cardinals is that they have a decent rush defense, so it may cause problems for Shady. But I doubt it.

And QB? Kolb or Skelton? It’s not going to matter. The Cardinals are a one man team, Larry Fitzgerald. But here’s the problem, the Eagles have the 5th rated pass rush, and Arizona is 30th in pass protection. I’ll do the math for you, John Skelton (or Kevin Kolb) will be running for his life back all afternoon.

Arizona has two wins this season, week 1 at home against Carolina and last week at home vs St Louis. Not an impressive resume.

I do remember that the Cards went into Baltimore two weeks ago and almost pulled the big upset (that was our Week 8 pick, ugh), and they’ve hung tough on the road, only losing by more than 3 points on the road once, that was a 34-10 blowout @ Minnesota (McNabb’s last good game of his career).

I just can’t see a scenario where the Cardinals keep this game close. A west coast team coming east to play the early Sunday game, that’s never a good spot to be in.

I would lean to the Eagles at a line of 10 or less. We should see a pointspread Thursday and I’ll be back on Friday with the pick.

Thursday Night Football

TNF Bet #1: (a.k.a the “I hate Phillip Rivers, but I’m still betting on him” pick) San Diego Chargers -7 over Oakland Raiders

I hate Phillip Rivers. But that isn’t going to stop me from picking the Chargers tonight.

This is your last chance, Phil.

After what he did to us last Monday Night, I am not in his fan club. Last Monday, San Diego was driving late in the game, they were well into field goal range and ready to get us out of Monday night with a push, and Rivers fumbles, and the Chiefs win in OT. Thanks, Phil.

But ask yourself this, are you sold on the Raiders? Darren McFadden is their best player, and he is not even suiting up tonight.

I’m not sure if Carson Palmer is ready to be an NFL QB again. Last week vs. Denver he had another game with three INT’s. Seriously, four weeks ago Palmer was eating Papa John’s and laying on his couch and now he’s going to go into San Diego on a short week and beat the Chargers? He played in Week 7, had a bye week, played in Week 9, now he’s going on the road and playing four days later?

The basic handicapping of this game says that even with both teams at 4-4, San Diego is the much better team. They have the 9th ranked rushing offense, and the Raiders have the 26th ranked rushing defense. Oakland gave up 300 yard rushing to Denver last week. Yes, 300 yards rushing. So expect alot of Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert.

Without McFadden I don’t see where the Raiders get their offense. Michael Bush is a decent replacement, but he can’t make up all of McFadden’s production. San Diego’s defense isn’t great (24th overall) but the Raiders don’t really have weapons to take advantage of that.

San Diego put up 38 points on Sunday against Green Bay, so I don’t think they’ll have trouble scoring against the Raiders. With offensive weapons like Phillip Rivers, Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates they are just a better team. Combine that with the fact that they are playing at home on a short week, against a QB who may not be in shape to bounce back and win on the road with 4 days of rest.

How about Phil Rivers and his crew roll up the points and knock off the Raiders 34-20. (if you wanted to parlay this, I’d lean to the OVER also)

The Line: Chargers -7, O/U 47.5
The Pick: Chargers -7

Back on Friday with the Sunday picks

 

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 10-8. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

 

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The Degenerate: Week 8 MNF: Stay Classy, San Diego

What a win last night. Wow. There’s nothing more fun that slapping around the Cowboys. Especially on national TV. Birds looked good, 2nd place with a bullet. Bears and Cardinals in the next 2 weeks, then it’s a showdown with the Giants for 1st

Yo Cowboys, Why U Mad?

place. Hope you all got in your ‘Eagles to win the NFC East’ bet when it was +300 or +240. New odds come out tomorrow, I think we’ll see the Eagles as the 2nd choice. My quick guess: Giants +120, Eagles +150, Cowboys +200, Washington +500.

1-1 yesterday, lost on the Ravens -12, won on the Eagles UNDER. Still hitting at 9-3 in the last 12, so still in the black (for amusement purposes only).

Enough about Sunday, let’s get onto the Monday night pick, Chargers at Chiefs…

I guess if you’re from Kansas City or San Diego, or if you were a fan of the old AFL, then this game really strikes a chord. But I’m from Philadelphia, and I shot my ‘big game, huge rivalry’ load last night with the Birds blasting the Cowboys out of the Linc. But alot of people are foaming at the mouth for this one, and I respect a true rivalry. These team hate each other from way back.  This one is a rematch from Week 4 when KC went out to San Diego as 14 point dogs and almost pulled the upset. Chargers managed a tight 20-17 win.

Well, here we are four weeks later and the line is Chargers -3, a huge adjustment from the first game.

When I handicap I like to look at past games to see who a team has played to get where they are at. In this case, KC started

Obligatory Halloween image...

0-3 with some ugly losses and looked to headed for the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. But they’ve run off three wins in a row and now stand at 3-3 and only a game out of 1st place. But lets look closer at those three wins. Week 4 they beat Minnesota 22-17, Week 5 they beat the Colts 28-24 and Week 6 they beat the Raiders 28-0. Only the Raiders win is worth anything and I’m discounting that because it was their first game with Carson Palmer and Palmer and Kyle Boller managed to throw six INT’s. Also in that game they pitched a 28-0 shutout but got out-gained by 82 total yards (getting 2 pick-sixes will do that).

If we look at the Chargers, they stand at 4-2 and in 1st place but have only beaten Minnesota (2-6), KC (3-3), Miami (0-7) and Denver (2-5), with losses to New England and the Jets. So the Chargers are really in the same boat as KC. No real impressive wins on either side. I mean they both beat Minnesota at home by pretty much the same score (KC 24-17, SD 22-17). While San Diego lost to New England on the road they did play them tough for 3 quarters, and they were in the Jets game for the whole game on the road too, so they proved that they can play good teams tight on the road. So I’ll give that some weight.

Cassel v. Rivers. Who ya got?

In a game that is a true toss-up I’m going with San Diego -3 to get the win and cover in Kansas City on Monday Night. The Chargers get alot of flack for never winning the big games, for starting slow, for managing to lose winnable games, etc. But they have talent, at least on offense. Love or hate him Phillip Rivers is pretty good. And he throws to Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. They have a decent running game with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert (questionable for tonight). KC has Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe and a hodge podge of RB’s filling in for injured Jamal Charles (Jackie Battle, Dexter McCluster, Thomas Jones). I think the Chargers get it done. This is a must win for them, and I think they get it.

KC does have a home field advantage, one of the biggest in the league. They’re 8-2 at home in their last 10 games at Arrowhead, and they beat San Diego at home last season, on Monday Night, so that did factor in my decision.

FootballOutsiders.com has them as almost dead even. According to FO, the Chargers are #14 on offense, #26 on Defense, and KC is #25 on offense, #15 on defense. So this game is a true tossup. But I’m looking at this as a matchup of talent and skill players and I think San Diego has the edge. Better QB, better RB’s, better WR/TE combo. I also think they remember Week 4, they will be ready and not get caught sleeping like they did four weeks ago. The better talent wins, and I think the Chargers have the better talent.

I’m saying Norv goes on the road, into hostile Arrowhead Stadium and gets a win to take sole possession of 1st place in the AFC West. Chargers 27 Chiefs 17.

The Line: Chargers -3,  O/U 44.5
The Pick: Chargers -3

I’ll give you all one more day to soak in the Cowboys win last night, then it’s onto next Monday Night against Da Bears.

 

 

 

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

  • Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
  • Email me fantasource@gmail.com
  • Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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