Tag Archive | "Betting"

The Degenerate (Written) Podcast: Championship Weekend Picks And Props

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Spike is BOLD

Fantasource is ITALICS

Hey Fantasource, check out my weiner 8========D.

That’s impressive, must be excited about the big games this weekend..

To tell you the truth, it’s a leftover from your fantastic performance last week.

Yeah, last weekend was nice. Won the teaser, and we hit almost all of the props we put out. Except Edelman over 6’ catches. He only got 6. So close…

We should tell people that I was unable to get a studio to record the pod this week. So I suggested we do this “email exchange” bit, like Simmons and Gladwell do. Except not as many words and probably not as insightful. You might say, “Spike, isn’t that just ripping off Simmons?” My response that would be, “of course, but you’re about two years late in accusing me of that.” I’m looking to sign up Jimmy King to do podcasts, and have his mere presence ruin my judgement.

I’m wearing a afro wig ala Gladwell. And I’m going to write a book for the sole purpose of having white people fawn over me. I’ve put in my 10,000 hours handcapping. And I still suck. His arguments hold no water. Let’s get busy with the weekend picks….

I’ve got my 10,000 hours in bullshitting on the internet, so this should come natural. So, we’ll get to a few props, but you said you have a pick for this weekend. I think both of these games are super tough. Feels like the best combo of teams in the Championship games in forever.

Yeah. In Week 16 we talked about the future Super Bowl odds, and these four teams were the top four on the list. So yeah, even though it’s not one versus in both games, San Fran is clearly the second best team in the NFC, even though they were a wildcard team.

I think the Patriots and Broncos will get all of the hype, but the better game this weekend will be Seattle vs San Fran. Over under of 38.5?? That’s low. I would lean to Under in that game, but that’s not the ‘official’ pick I’m making.

I like Denver -5’.

Yowzer. You’re betting against the Hoodie? I won’t tell him.

I like the Broncos alot. Yes, the Pats are playing well, despite injuries, but I think the Broncos offense will be strong enough to score 30+ and get the win this weekend.

The Pats offense is potent, but Denver defense isn’t terrible. And they are at home. I like them to win something like 34-21?

Here’s a “twitter tidbit” (meaning I got it from a tweet and I haven’t even verified it): Since 2000 Teams scoring 40 or more points in a playoff game are 2-15-1 ATS the following week.

Pats put up 43 last week. And they jumped out early on the Colts. I don’t see that happening this week.

And LaGarrette Blount ran well the past two games, and he should get the ball this weekend, but 180 yards and four TD’s probably won’t happen again.

Another unverified Twitter Tidbit: Home team last 13 Patriots games: 11-2 ATS.

Yeah, it sort of feels like the Patriots have been doing it with smoke and mirrors for a while now. I guess the thing that really gets in my head is that I’ve finally, after a decade of fighting it, started to buy into the stupid Peyton Manning playoff narrative. I just get nervous betting on him. Arguably the greatest quarterback of all time and the thing that makes me worried is “he might choke again.” Silly I know, but I can’t get it out of my head.

Twitter tidbit: #Broncos have been held to less than 400 yards of offense only 3 times this season – all 3 times by Chargers

Denver at home: winning home games by an avg 16 points.

Take out Chargers games, Broncos winning home games by 20 points.

445 ypg total offense at home this season

We all know about the Broncos offense, but I think the story will be the Patriots defense as the weak point.

Patriots D:

give up 130 rush yards per game this season.

Since Week 5 – 138 ypg rush & 383 ypg total offense.

388 yards total offense since bye week

Pats 4-4 SU on the road this year, but they stay within 7 points in all road losses.

So you can say they may lose but still cover. But I think if Denver wins they win by 7+.

Well the odds say it will be the Seahawks and the Broncos. I think I’d be happy with any matchup out of these four teams. I know it’s not your official pick, but do you like any team in the other game?

If I was picking the others, I would go with (in order of confidence)

1) Seattle / SF Under 38.5

2) Denver / NE Over 55.5

3) Seattle -3.5. If I play Seattle I would buy a half point to get to -3. Pay a little extra juice. Could come down to a field goal.

So we can put the Broncos -5’ and write it in stone. That’s the pick this weekend. But let’s move onto some props, which we did pretty well with last weekend. Maybe we know what we are talking about? (nah, probably just lucky)

Prop #1: Who will record the most Rushing Yards?

Marshawn Lynch (SEA) +120

Knowshon Moreno (DEN) +250

LeGarrette Blount (NE) +275

Frank Gore (SF) +400

I like Knowshon Moreno here at +250. He only got 100+ yards once this season. But it was against the Patriots, and he roll up 224 yards rushing. I expect him to see alot of touches this week. Especially if Denver gets a lead, maybe they learned from the last game. Get a lead and try to milk some clock. Don’t let New England get back in it.

Lynch is also an option but playing 49ers D scares me.

Speaking of options but scary defenses, I don’t know man, with as scary as the Seattle pass defense is, and as low scoring as this could be, isn’t Gore at +400 a decent play?

Maybe, Seattle does give up rush yards. They’ve given up 100+ yards rushing 10 times in 18 games. So, he could be worth a flyer. But I’m gonna stay away from him.

Prop #2: Who will record the most Receiving Yards?

Demaryius Thomas (DEN) 7/2

Julian Edelman (NE) 4/1

Anquan Boldin (SF) 9/2

Eric Decker (DEN) 11/2

Michael Crabtree (SF) 11/2

Wes Welker (DEN) 6/1

Golden Tate (SEA) 9/1

Percy Harvin (SEA) 9/1

This is too tough for me. I mean, I can’t imagine taking anyone in the NFC game. I know Boldin would be a hot pick, but I can’t in my right mind suggest you bet any receiver against the Seattle defense. Anything here?

Yeah, I think playing multiple guys from Denver could be the play. like we did last week. Take Thomas/Decker/Welker and see if any go off. Still make $$ if any of the 3 get most yards. Definitely staying away from the NFC game. Don;t see any of those guys getting big yards.

Edelman is 4/1 but he is a receptions guy, not known for big yards.

Speaking of Edelman…

Prop #3: Total Receptions – Julian Edelman (NE) O/U 6½

Yes, I do like this OVER 6.5 receptions. Again. We lost last week, but I think he will get targets this week and I expect Brady to throw a lot more than last week. Blount rushing and the Luck interceptions probably impacted Edleman last week. But this week, I think he will get catches. And win this OVER 6.5.

Prop #4: Total Rushing Yards – Knowshon Moreno (DEN) O/U 77½

Well thinking about what you did in the earlier prop, I gotta think you’re going OVER here.

Yes, I am going OVER. I think even if Moreno doesn’t win most rushing yards, he should be able to get 78+ this week. For the same reason I mentioned earlier, Pat rush defense is not great, and he should get enough touches to get to 78+.

Prop #5: Total Passing Yards – Colin Kaepernick (SF) O/U 190½

UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER. Can I get odds on under half of this?

UNDER!! Yes, I love the Under here. Kaepernick averages only 199 ypg this season in all games. And vs. Seattle in two games he had 125 and 175..

He probably needs 20+ completions to get this number and Seattle is 4th in the league in completions surendered per game. and Opponents are only getting 179 ypg on seattle pass D this year. and 170 yards at home (in Seattle). Love the UNDER.

Prop #6: Total Rushing Yards – Marshawn Lynch (SEA) O/U 89½

I’m gonna hedge my Moreno most rushing yards bet with this one. I like Lynch OVER 89.5. I do think he will get yards, and he has had success vs. SF this year. 2 game he had 28 carries for 98 and 20 carries for 72 yars.

The key is can he get 21+ carries? When he gets 21+ carried this year (4 games) he has eclipsed 89 yards in all 4 games.

That is an “analytic pick”

FANTA-HINKIE

Now on to the best prop on the board…

Prop #7: Will any Seahawk Player kiss his bicep after he scores a TD in the game?

Must be clearly shown on TV, Book Manager’s decision is final.

Yes +500

No -1000

Dude I love the YES on this one. I don’t know why, but I love it. I’m a huge Kaep fan, but he’s so asking for it.

Yes, after what he did last week with the Superman pose, you know Seattle would love to rub it in if they are winning late and get a score, expecially a defensive TD, they will try it. But -1000 is BIG juice. So maybe only a few $$. Don’t cash in the 401k but it will be fu to watch.

Of course all of these picks are FOR AMUSEMENT PURPOSES ONLY. So we hope everyone has fun watching the games and maybe if Denver wins and covers I’ll be kissing my biceps at the end.

I do have a Seattle 12-1 to win the Super Bowl ticket, so i am also cheering for a Seattle win.

Well being that you got Marvin Lewis’ed on your other Super Bowl futures ticket, I’m cheering for you. I’d rather have Kaep win, but as long as a running QB wins, it’s troll gold for me.

Alright, enjoy the games and BE WELL!

Follow Fantsource on Twitter @Fantasource

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin

 

 

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The Degenerate Podcast: NFL Playoff Teaser And Playoff Props

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There are only four games, no way Fantasource can come up with a three team teaser, can he?

BULLSHIT. OF COURSE HE CAN.

A playoff NFL teaser and we talk some playoff props.

Follow Fantasource (Delco Legend) on Twitter @Fantasource.

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin.

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Subscribe to the podcast via RSS here.

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The Degenerate: The Final NFL Regular Season Three Team Tease

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Oh hey, remember me? Well, we didn’t have time to record a podcast this week so we decided to put pen to paper (fingers to keyboard) and write it up, like we used to do back in the original days of The Degenerate.

It’s week 17, and just like most week 17’s in the past the league is separated into two camps: those playing for something, and those who were eliminated and just want to get home and eat cheese and sit in their recliners. This week in our three team teaser we went with teams that really have a reason to play, whether it is for a division title, a bye week, or both. I think we have some good picks this week. I ignored any games between two teams that have already been eliminated, but there were still a bunch of games to pick from.

In case you aren’t familiar with a three team teaser, this type of bet allows you to get 10 points and use it in your favor and as you can see from the picks below, we used those points this week to bring our pointspreads from double digits (or close to double digits) down to more manageable lines.

On with the picks…

Pick #1: Patriots +1 over Buffalo Bills (original line Patriots -9)

Playoff scenarios for New England: Win and and clinch at least #2 seed (and bye week). Win and a Broncos loss and NE will get #1 seed in AFC.

This is a game where we just need New England to win the game, and I fully expect them to do it.

Since 2001, when the Patriots are 23-2-0 (92.0%) straight up against the Bills, with an average margin of victory of 15 points.

The Patriots since 2001, in home games in week 6 or later vs. teams with a winning percentage less than .500 they are 29-0 SU and 27-2 on the 10 point teaser line.

Some trends working against the Buffalo Bills:

When betting AGAINST the Bills in a three team teaser:

In 2013: 7-0 on the road, 13-2 overall.

And betting AGAINST the Bills in a three team teaser since 2011, in road games: 28-2-1 (93.3%); in all games: 52-9-2 (85.2%)

The Patriots will have a tough time in the playoffs without Gronkowski, and getting a bye week (and possibly home field advantage) will be huge for them. They will be prepared and should easily knock off the Bills.

Pick #2: Seattle Seahawks -1/2 over St Louis Rams (original line Seattle -10.5)

Playoff scenarios for Seattle: Win and clinch division and #1 seed (head-to-head tie-breaker beats Panthers). Seattle loss and San Fran win and Seattle drops to a wildcard team.

This is another game where we have one team playing for playoff positioning against a division team has already been eliminated. Seattle could end the season anywhere from #1 seed with a bye week next week and home field advantage, all the way down to the #5 seed and playing a road game next week. I think they bounce back from the loss last week and beat up on St Louis.

Seattle lost last week to Arizona, Seahawks coming off of a loss:

Since 2011: 13-1-1 (92.9%) on the 10 point teaser line

Since 2012: 7-0-0 (100.0%) on the 10 point teaser line

Seattle is 14-1 straight up at home since 2012. Yes, their lone loss was last week, but I think they get it done this week against St Louis. I don’t see how the Rams offense will be able to score enough points against the #1 defense in the league to get a win on the road. Could be low scoring (first meeting was 14-9 Seattle) and covering 10 point may be tough but Seattle should win the game and that is all we are asking for here.

Pick #3: Saints -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (original line Saints -13)

New Orleans’ playoff scenarios: Win and they are in. Saints win and Panthers lose then Saints win NFC South.

Saints at home this year are 7-0 straight up and on the three team teaser line, with an average margin of victory of 15 points.

And another stat (also fits for Seattle this week): Since 2010, any home favs of 10+ points who are coming off of a loss: 15-4-0 (78.9%) on the three team teaser line.

Since 2006, when the Saints play division games at home they are 19-3-1 (86.4%) on the three team teaser line (7-0-1 in since 2012).

Saints have lost 3 of last 4, and 2 in a row but they are 7-0 at home this year.

Since 2008, Saints: 14-3 ATS regular season home games off of a loss, including 11-1 last 12 games.

Brees had a terrible game last week at Carolina. This is a win and get in situation, the Bucs defense is tough but on the road this season Tampa Bay is 1-6 and gives up 25 ppg in road. Saints will get it done.

The three team teaser for Week 17:

Patriots +1

Seahawks -1/2

Saints -3

Confidence rating: 5 Bazaars (out of 5).

I really like the teaser plays this week. We have good situations, good matchups and motivated teams for our side. Let’s get this one…

Good Luck this week, and have a Happy New Year!!

Follow Fantasource on Twitter @Fantasource.

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The Degenerate Podcast: NFL Three Team Tease And Late Season Trends

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What’s that? What is that you say?!

It’s a winning streak, baby.

Fantasource looks to go above .500 in three team teasers for the season, and goes over some interesting late season trends. Spike gives his baseless, “gut” three team tease as well.

Follow Fantasource (Delco Legend) on Twitter @Fantasource.

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin.

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Subscribe to the podcast via RSS here.

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The Degenerate Podcast: Thanksgiving NFL Three-Team Tease

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It’s four losses in a row in The Degenerate (3-5 overall), and there are two ways to handle it.

First, we could hang our heads and give up. That’s not what we’re about here.

Instead, we’re going to strap in, buckle up, board up the windows, and move forward and get this thing back on track.

Today’s episode has Fantasource’s well researched three-team tease, and Spike’s “gut” three team tease.

Follow Fantasource (Delco Legend) on Twitter @Fantasource.

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin.

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Subscribe to the podcast via RSS here.

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The Degenerate Podcast: NFL Three Team Tease And Odds Explained

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Fantasource took one on the chin last week with the three-team tease, but that’s why they call it gambling.

We’re back at it this week with another, NFL three-team teaser, as well as an explanation about how lines are created, and why the injury to Aaron Rodgers swung the line so much.

Follow Fantasource (Delco Legend) on Twitter @Fantasource.

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin.

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Subscribe to the podcast via RSS here.

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The Degenerate Podcast: NFL Three Team Tease & Super Bowl Odds

The Degenerate

Another three team teaser, another win for Fantasource. His picks came through again last week, and the record on the year for the three teamers so far is 3-1.

We give you another one for this weekend’s NFL action, as well as discuss sharps vs. squares, Halloween candy, and some Super Bowl odds.

As always, it’s for amusement purposes only.

Follow Fantasource (Delco Legend) on Twitter @Fantasource.

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin.

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Subscribe to the podcast via RSS here.

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The Degenerate Podcast With Fantasource: The NFL Three Team Tease

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Are you serious?! Another weekly podcast on the Time’s Yours Podcast Network? You’re damn right.

Every week our handicapping expert FANTASOURCE will give you an NFL three-team tease. I will give you some things to tread lightly (!) on, and we’ll touch on anything else big in the world of handicapping.

Remember, this is ALL FOR FUN and it is FREE so take that for what it’s worth.

Follow Fantasource for handicapping advice on Twitter @Fantasource

Follow Spike on Twitter @SpikeEskin

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes (DO IT! RATE IT)

Subscribe to the podcast on RSS

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The Degenerate: Week 11, MNF pick – Just Bet The Patriots

Well, another loser on Sunday. Not just an average loss, but a ‘blow the doors out’ loss. We had UNDER 48 in the Carolina / Detroit game. Final score? Well, I’m glad you asked, how about 45-38 Detroit. Nice.

For Amusement Purposes Only, right?

It pretty much went the exact opposite of what I wrote up:

  • The Carolina defense isn’t very good. But with Stafford limited and the rushing game missing it’s #1 guy, I think Detroit will try to play a conservative gameplan.” – 5 passing TD’s from Matt Stafford. Slightly incorrect.
  • I fully believe that the Detroit defense will shut down a pretty good Carolina offense.” – LOL, Carolina put up 35 points.

Well, let’s put yesterday’s pick behind us and pretend it never happened. And yes, the Eagles won, and I’m #ALLIN, but I need to wait another week before jumping back into the playoff hysteria.

Onto the Monday Night pick…

Monday Night Football: Chiefs at Patriots

Tonight we have Kansas City visiting New England. We’ve been burned by KC on Monday Night before. On Halloween night, Phillip Rivers blew a perfect chance for a push and fumbled in the red zone late in the 4th quarter, KC ended up winning in OT. Screw Phillip Rivers. But the good news for us tonight is that Tom Brady is not Phillip Rivers. Brady has a better arm, better weapons and a model girlfriend. He won’t blow this one for us.

Wll this be a big night for Welker?

As far as I can see it tonight is not going to be a good night for KC, this one could get ugly.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not a fan of the Patriots. Not since that 2004/05 Super Bowl when they beat the Eagles. And then there was that smugfest 2007 undefeated regular season. Add to that the cocky Boston fans and the media’s love affair with Tom Brady, well it all adds up.

But I do know one thing, love or hate the Patriots you have to admit Bill Belichek knows how to win. And I think in a position like the Patriots are in tonight, they will come out firing and win this game going away. They have the offensive weapons to put a bad teams away early.

New England has had a pretty tough schedule the past five weeks, vs. Jets, vs. Dallas, @Pittsburgh, vs. Giants, @Jets. Tonight they get a breather.

The Chiefs have really come back to earth since they ran off a 4 game winning streak after starting 0-3. They’ve lost 2 in a row, 31-3 to Miami, and 17-10 to the Tebows. They’re now going on the road after 3 straight home games.

All trends are pointing to the Chiefs in this one; Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when getting 10.5+ points. The Pats are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games when favored by 10+ points (via Covers.com).

It's on you, Palko

But those trends don’t factor in one important detail about tonight, Chiefs QB Matt Cassel is out, and Tyler Palko is making his first NFL start. The Patriots knocked off the Jets last week 37-16 and they seem like they are ready to put the division away. Tonight should be an easy win, and a game that Patriots should control from start to finish.

We are looking at a KC team going on the road after 2 home losses, KC is ranked 30th (out of 32) in overall team efficiency, and 30th overall in pass defense. Brady should have his way with that defense tonight.

The Patriots are #4 overall, and #2 in overall offense and #2 in pass offense. Yes, the Patriots are low ranked in defense (23rd) but I think Belichek will be able to draw up some schemes to confuse Palko.

I’m not going to get fancy, I’m not going to say Tyler Palko will find a way to beat the Patriots, I’m not going to say that the Chiefs defense will magically shut down Tom Brady. I’m going with the obvious play here, I’m laying the 16.5 with New England (for amusement purposes only, to be clear).

I’m thinking Brady and Welker have a big night, the Patriots defense gives Tyler Palko a rude NFL introduction and New England gets a big win in front of the home crowd. Patriots win 34-10.

Going 0-3 this week would really suck, and drop me to .500 on the season. Help me, Tom Brady. You’re my only hope.

Thanksgiving picks post coming Wednesday.

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 12-11. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

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