Oh hey, remember me? Well, we didn’t have time to record a podcast this week so we decided to put pen to paper (fingers to keyboard) and write it up, like we used to do back in the original days of The Degenerate.
It’s week 17, and just like most week 17’s in the past the league is separated into two camps: those playing for something, and those who were eliminated and just want to get home and eat cheese and sit in their recliners. This week in our three team teaser we went with teams that really have a reason to play, whether it is for a division title, a bye week, or both. I think we have some good picks this week. I ignored any games between two teams that have already been eliminated, but there were still a bunch of games to pick from.
In case you aren’t familiar with a three team teaser, this type of bet allows you to get 10 points and use it in your favor and as you can see from the picks below, we used those points this week to bring our pointspreads from double digits (or close to double digits) down to more manageable lines.
On with the picks…
Pick #1: Patriots +1 over Buffalo Bills (original line Patriots -9)
Playoff scenarios for New England: Win and and clinch at least #2 seed (and bye week). Win and a Broncos loss and NE will get #1 seed in AFC.
This is a game where we just need New England to win the game, and I fully expect them to do it.
Since 2001, when the Patriots are 23-2-0 (92.0%) straight up against the Bills, with an average margin of victory of 15 points.
The Patriots since 2001, in home games in week 6 or later vs. teams with a winning percentage less than .500 they are 29-0 SU and 27-2 on the 10 point teaser line.
Some trends working against the Buffalo Bills:
When betting AGAINST the Bills in a three team teaser:
In 2013: 7-0 on the road, 13-2 overall.
And betting AGAINST the Bills in a three team teaser since 2011, in road games: 28-2-1 (93.3%); in all games: 52-9-2 (85.2%)
The Patriots will have a tough time in the playoffs without Gronkowski, and getting a bye week (and possibly home field advantage) will be huge for them. They will be prepared and should easily knock off the Bills.
Pick #2: Seattle Seahawks -1/2 over St Louis Rams (original line Seattle -10.5)
Playoff scenarios for Seattle: Win and clinch division and #1 seed (head-to-head tie-breaker beats Panthers). Seattle loss and San Fran win and Seattle drops to a wildcard team.
This is another game where we have one team playing for playoff positioning against a division team has already been eliminated. Seattle could end the season anywhere from #1 seed with a bye week next week and home field advantage, all the way down to the #5 seed and playing a road game next week. I think they bounce back from the loss last week and beat up on St Louis.
Seattle lost last week to Arizona, Seahawks coming off of a loss:
Since 2011: 13-1-1 (92.9%) on the 10 point teaser line
Since 2012: 7-0-0 (100.0%) on the 10 point teaser line
Seattle is 14-1 straight up at home since 2012. Yes, their lone loss was last week, but I think they get it done this week against St Louis. I don’t see how the Rams offense will be able to score enough points against the #1 defense in the league to get a win on the road. Could be low scoring (first meeting was 14-9 Seattle) and covering 10 point may be tough but Seattle should win the game and that is all we are asking for here.
Pick #3: Saints -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (original line Saints -13)
New Orleans’ playoff scenarios: Win and they are in. Saints win and Panthers lose then Saints win NFC South.
Saints at home this year are 7-0 straight up and on the three team teaser line, with an average margin of victory of 15 points.
And another stat (also fits for Seattle this week): Since 2010, any home favs of 10+ points who are coming off of a loss: 15-4-0 (78.9%) on the three team teaser line.
Since 2006, when the Saints play division games at home they are 19-3-1 (86.4%) on the three team teaser line (7-0-1 in since 2012).
Saints have lost 3 of last 4, and 2 in a row but they are 7-0 at home this year.
Since 2008, Saints: 14-3 ATS regular season home games off of a loss, including 11-1 last 12 games.
Brees had a terrible game last week at Carolina. This is a win and get in situation, the Bucs defense is tough but on the road this season Tampa Bay is 1-6 and gives up 25 ppg in road. Saints will get it done.
The three team teaser for Week 17:
Confidence rating: 5 Bazaars (out of 5).
I really like the teaser plays this week. We have good situations, good matchups and motivated teams for our side. Let’s get this one…
Good Luck this week, and have a Happy New Year!!
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