The Degenerate: Week 1 picks; Meet the Super Bowl Champs…

So, last year was a mess. 8-8. Andy and the crew salvaged the season with a 4 game winning streak at the end , but no playoffs. And you know, the Eagles didn’t deserve the postseason anyway. But this is a new year, new attitude, new everything.

Well, except the players, they’re pretty much the same as last year. Mike Vick, Lesean McCoy and Desean Jackson could be one of the top offensive trios in the league. The defense is solid, and I’m more comfortable with Juan Castillo as DC this season (but one bad defensive game and he’s back on the hot seat). To say I’m pretty optimistic about this season is an understatement, as you’ll see below I have high hopes for the Eagles in 2012-13…

(Click to embiggen)

I mean, it’s really as simple as that. 11-5, easy peezy. You might be able to swap the Ravens win and the Steelers loss, and we could grab another win somewhere else. I’m looking at 11-5, 12-4 if things break right (and Vick stays healthy). Yeah, I’m an optimistic kind of guy. And every year my heart gets smashed into a million pieces.

And yeah, this is pretty pointless, but here is my lame attempt at picking the division winners, wildcards teams and Super Bowl champions.

Super Bowl or Bust

NFC East – Philadelphia Eagles
NFC South – New Orleans Saints
NFC North – Green Bay Packers
NFC West – Seattle Seahawks

NFC Wildcard #1 – Dallas Cowboys
NFC Wildcard #2 – San Francisco 49ers
(yes, I know I left out the Falcons and Giants. 49ers should win the West, but I like Russell Wilson, so I’m picking Seattle.)

AFC East – New England Patriots
AFC South – Houston Texans
AFC North – Baltimore Ravens
AFC West – Oakland Raiders

AFC Wildcard #1 – Denver Broncos
AFC Wildcard #2 – Buffalo Bills
(Yeah, no Steelers, or Chargers, or Jets. And I’m really sticking my neck out with the Raiders. But the AFC West is a crapshoot, why not take a longshot?)

NFC Championship: Eagles over Packers
AFC Championship: Texans over Patriots

Super Bowl:
Eagles over Texans (yup, I went there).

So there you are, your Eagles will be the 2012-13 Super Bowl Champions. Get your hotel reservations for New Orleans now.

Onto the Week 1 pick, which coincidentally also involves the Eagles…

Bet #1: (a.k.a the “You saw my Super Bowl pick, of course I’m picking the Eagles” bet): Eagles -9.5 over Browns

Hi Brandon Weeden, welcome to hell.

I’ve been eyeing this game since the schedule came out. Our first step on the road a Super Bowl title. Let’s be honest, the Browns aren’t that good. They ended last season with the 25th rated offense, and they are opening the season with a rookie QB (Brandon Weeden) and a rookie RB (Trent Richardson? Um, ok.

The Eagles defense is licking their lips to get a hold of the youngsters on Sunday. They led the league in sacks last season with 50 and should be able to put plenty of  pressure on Weeden all day. Trent Richardson isn’t even 100%, so he may be limited on Sunday. I like the Eagles defense to smother the young Browns offense.

On the other side of the ball the Browns actually have a decent pass defense. 2nd overall last year, only giving up 185 passing yard per game. But their rush defense isn’t so hot. 29th out of 32, 147 yards per game. So it should be a good mix of Shady on the ground this week.

The Eagles ended last season winning 4 straight by an average of 20 points. I just think this is a game where the Eagles are the better team and it will show on Sunday.

I’ll say the Eagles start their season with a big 31-13 win at the Dog Pound.

The Line: Eagles -9.5, O/U 43.5
The Pick: Eagles -9.5
Game trends (via Covers.com): Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 season openers; Browns are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.

I also was leaning towards picking Houston Texans -12.5 over Miami but I laid off once I heard Arian Foster was a gametime decision. I can’t lay that number without knowing if the #1 RB is going to play. It probably won';t make a difference, but it’s a long season so no need to force a pick here.

Good luck this week. Let’s try to bounce back off of the Giants loss on Wednesday.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Twitter:
Email: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

  • http://twitter.com/_magowan Mark Magowan

    I’d flip the results in the games vs NYG. Always feel like both teams have success as the road teams in those match-ups.

    Also I think this team is always due for one upsetting loss vs the AFC. I think we lose to Pitt outright, but the Ravens take us apart as well.

    Everything else sits okay with me. 10-6.

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