Well, it’s finally here. The Super Bowl.
Back in August when all of us Eagles fans were looking ahead to the season I’m sure alot of us pictured the Eagles playing this week. Well, we all know what happened. Not quite a Super Bowl run, but an interesting season nonetheless. Andy is coming back, Juan is coming back, pretty much the same story next year, let’s hope we have more success. But enough about the Birds, it’s Super Bowl week.
We’re going to approach the Super Bowl in two installments here at SpikeEskin.com. Today, we’ll take a look at prop bets. Prop bets are those crazy bets that you hear people talking about on TV and radio, pretty much any scenario you want to bet on is available. They make for interesting conversation, and keep people talking during the leadup to the game when nothing else is happening.
Some are pretty basic football bets, “How many passing attempts for Tom Brady?”, “How many completions for Eli Manning?”. But the ‘wacky’ prop bets are the ones that get most of the attention, bets like “Who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first in his postgame interview?”, “How many times will they show Robert Kraft on camera”, stuff like that. I don’t know if there is any real way to handicap some of these, but I’ll break a few down and give out my picks.
So, today it’s the prop bets and tomorrow will be the picks. I’ll make a pick in the game (as usual), but I’m pretty excited to say that we’ll also have Super Bowl picks from some of our favorite folks in the internet world (Twitter legends, bloggers, local celebs, etc.). Spike hasn’t unvelied the complete list to me, but some of the early names look interesting. That should be a fun read tomorrow.
I found these props and their odds from Sportsbook.com, but these props and many, many others are available at almost all online sports books (and in the Vegas casinos, as well). Even my local guy offers a long list of props to pick from. I included a PDF from Sportsbook.com if you want to print some out and bring them to your Super Bowl party (for amusement purposes only, of course).
Last year a buddy of mine had Jordy Nelson to score the first TD at 11-1. And yeah, when Nelson broke that TD and scored, it was cha-ching for him. Nice payday and it was still the first quarter. These payouts aren’t as high paying, but they will be fun to track, so let’s get to it…
1) What will be higher Eli Manning Completions (+120) or Lebron James Points (-150)
Before you decide on this wager you need to put a number on both options. Eli’s completions? Flacco went 22-36 for 306 yards vs. the Patriots 2 weeks ago, so you can use that as a starting point. So, you have to think Eli will do something similar, his over/under for completions is 24.5 with more juice on the Over, so Vegas thinks around 25/26. So how about we say 26 total completions for Eli.
LeBron plays the Raptors on Sunday afternoon. That game should be a blow out, and I don’t expect LeBron to play the whole game. But even 3 quarters of LeBron will get you 26+ points. LeBron has been held under 26 points only 4 times this season.
Fantasource says: I’ll take LeBron to have more points. But it could be close. How about Eli completes 26, LeBron scores 30.
2) What will be higher Tom Brady TD Passes (-115) or Bruins Total Goals (-115)
How many TD’s do you think Tom Brady will throw? I’ll say 3. That’s just a guess. I know for sure that he won’t throw 6 like he did against the Broncos. And the Bruins goals? They’re leading the NHL in goals per game (3.5), and they play the Capitals who give up 2.8 goals per game. So let’s say 3+ goals for the Bruins.
Fantasource says: I’ll take the Bruins Total Goals to be higher. It’s gonna be tough for Brady to get more than 3 TD’s. I’ll wager that the Bruins have a decent chance at 4+ goals.
3) How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem? From first note starts until she completes saying “Brave”.
Over 1 minute 34 Seconds (-120)
Under 1 minute 34 Seconds (-120)
This one is so dumb that you have to love it. And you know what, someone actually did alot of research on this. So here’s all you ever wanted to know, and then some, about the National Anthem prop bet from BeyondTheBets.com. “Super Bowl National Anthem: Will Clarkson’s rendition fall short of 1:34 over/under?”
Fantasource says: BeyondTheBets says Under. But Covers.com says they like the Over. And I say… Under. BeyondTheBets.com makes a more compelling case than Covers.com. But really, if you’re betting this you might have a problem (but that is probably true for most of these prop bets).
4) Will Kelly Clarkson’s bare belly be showing when she sings the National Anthem?
For this one I consulted my pop-culture expert, Mrs. Fantasource. Her analysis was this, “Well, if she shows her belly it won’t be on purpose. She’s a little chunky.”
Fantasource says: Actually Mrs. Fantasource says: “No, at least not on purpose.” So, no bet on this one for me.
5) Will Madonna be wearing fishnet stockings at any point during the Super Bowl Halftime show?
As much as this might be a “who the hell knows?” type of bet, there is some recent history to go back on. In the past month Madonna has been photographed a few times, most times she is wearing fishnets. I guess the Material Girl is trying fishnets as party of her new look. WagerMinds.com did some research as well and came to the conclusion that ‘Yes’ is a good bet. So believe it or not, I’m saying bet ‘Yes’ on this one.
Fantasource says: Bet Yes. Fishnets are in this season, at least for Madonna, and she will wear them proudly.
6) How many times will David Tyree’s 2008 Super Bowl catch be shown be shown on TV during the game? From kick off until final whistle. Half-time does not count towards wager.
Over 1 (-160)
Under 1 (+120)
You gotta go OVER. No doubt. You have to expect it’s coming at least once, and at that point you’ll have a push. Will it happen twice? Unlikely, but you never know. If it’s late and the game is tight, or if there is a crazy catch by a Giants WR they may show it again.
Fantasource says: Bet OVER. At the very least you should get a push.
7) Which region will have the higher local TV Rating?
Boston -7 (-120)
New York +7 (-120)
I don’t know much about TV ratings, but I know the Bostonians love to watch their Pats. When these teams played in Super Bowl XLII the Giants got crushed in the ratings. Boston came in with a 55.6 local rating, New York got 44.9 local. Why would this year be any different? I think it might even be a higher difference.
Fantasource says: Lay the 7 ratings points (or whatever they’re called) and cash in. Boston is the solid play here. If there was a ‘best bet’, this would be it.
8 ) Longest Completion – Eli Manning (NYG) Over/Under 45½ yards
I’m going on a hunch here and saying that Eli will be able to find one of his WR’s for a long gain. The Patriots pass defense is not good. I mean, Tebow even got a 41 yard pass in, and he played terrible. Eli got a 66 yard pass against the Packers and 36 yarder against a tough 49ers defense. A combination of a talented Giants receiving corp and a bad Patriots defense makes me say over is a Over.
Fantasource says: I like the OVER 45½ yards. I think Eli will test the Pats pass defense, and Eli’s WR’s have the speed and talent to break a long one.
9) What Color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?
Clear/Water – 2/1
Yellow – 2/1
Orange – 9/4
Red – 11/2
Green – 6/1
Blue – 10/1
Fantasource says: Clear/Water is the choice here, and at 2/1 it’s a nice bet. Bill Belicheck has been doused with only water in his Patriots coaching career. And when the Giants won in 2008, yup, Coughlin got a water bath (see the image at the top). Go with ‘Clear/Water’ and meet me at the cash window for your 2/1 payout.
10) What will be higher, Hakeem Nicks Receptions (-115) OR Total Goals in the Flyers/Rangers game (-115)?
Flyers fans, this one is for you. The Over/Under for Hakeem Nick receptions is 5½, and the juice is on the UNDER. So Vegas is thinking 5 or fewer receptions. But I expect Eli to be tossing all day, and Nicks is one of his main targets. Flyers/Rangers total goals? These teams have played 3 times this season, with total goals of 2,6, and 5. The Rangers are only giving up 2.0 goals per game, and scoring 2.8. The Flyers are scoring 3.3, and surrendering 2.9. We can put the total goals at a max of 6 and hope Hakeem Nicks is Eli’s main target. I like Nicks here.
Fantasource says: Flyers/Rangers should be low scoring, and Eli should be tossing it all day. I like Nicks’ Receptions to be higher.
So there you have it. Some meaningless prop bets to make the game more enjoyable. You can have action from before the kickoff (National Anthem time), up to after the final whistle has blown (Gatorade bath color).
Season Record: 25-18. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.
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