The Degenerate: Week 16, The Friday Pick: Merry Christmas and Dallas Sucks!

“And so this is Christmas Cowboys week, I hope you have fun. The near and the dear ones, the old and the young.”
Yeah, not quite how John Lennon wrote it, but fitting nonetheless.

Another big week for Shady?

So it’s Cowboys week, and it’s ‘Win or Go Home’ version 4.0 for the Eagles. But for real this time. The Eagles are on the ropes and not only do they have to win at Dallas but they have to cheer for a Jets win over the Giants, if both of those things happen, we are still alive. Yes, I think the Jets will win, and I think the Eagles will win and I think we will be riding this thing out until the last minutes of Week 17. We’re not dead yet.

#ALLIN

I wanted to take a minute to say thanks to everyone for reading the posts this year and for listening to my Twitter nonsense. Hopefully we all made a little money this season. Not just on the picks here but on some of the games I put out myself or re-tweeted on Twitter.

We had a loser last night with the Texans -6.5 and I think we can officially write off the Texans. They could end up with a #2 seed and I’d still bet against them at home in the playoffs. What a bad showing last night. Arian Foster did all he could, but TJ Yates is not a big game QB. How can you lose to the Colts? Oh well, we dropped to 21-17 on the season with the loss.

I’m going to keep it short this week, because I know that we all have alot on our plate this week trying to wrap up Christmas week. I won’t be putting out a Monday Night Football pick this week, so this is the last post for the week.

Onto the Week 16 pick…

Bet #1: (a.k.a. The “what’s better than beating the Cowboys on Christmas Eve?” pick)

Parlay: Eagles +1.5 AND Eagles / Cowboys UNDER 50.5

Oh, for the love of God. Are you kidding me?

I love Cowboys fans, they sure are loyal to a fault. I was looking into this game trying to get a feel for how it will go, so I was perusing some Cowboys blogs to try to take the pulse of the Dallas fans and uncover some local angle that I missed, and let me tell you something about the Cowboys fans this week… they sure are confident that Santa Romo will be delivering them a win (I’m really not one to talk, I always pick the Eagles. Bleed Green, and all that).

Over at TheLandryHat.com (great name, BTW), all seven of the contributors picked the Cowboys to win. Fancy that. Here are some nuggets:

‘[Eagles] are riding high off two straight wins (against the Dolphins and Jets) and they might just be starting to buy into the “dream team” hype’ – Dream Team reference? That is so Week 4.

‘The Boys are coming off a stellar win against the Buccaneers’ – Um, buddy, you beat Tampa Bay not the 1975 Steelers.

One guy says: “Rob Ryan better think of something to stop Vick”. You mean, unlike the last time they played? But he still picks the Boys to win by 3.

I love this one: “Michael Vick will probably get hurt.” So this cat is basing his prediction on Vick getting hurt? Ha ha. Stay classy, Dallas.

Jason Babin is closing in on the sack record.

And to a man, they all are predicting a big offensive game from the Cowboys, 34/31/34/38/30 points? Did I miss something, did RB Felix Jones get miraculously healed this week, or did the Cowboys sign 1997 Barry Sanders? They have Tony Romo, a decent slew of WR’s and at RB they have either a very banged up Felix Jones, or newly-signed Sammy Morris (or some dude named Chauncey Washington).

So Dallas fans are coming in all pumped up and ready for revenge. Ok, I get that. We whooped their ass in Week 8 and they probably couldn’t live with themselves if they got slapped around at home on Christmas Eve. That Week 8 win was probably the most fun game to watch all season. Sunday night national TV beatdown of the Cowboys. Good stuff.

This week I am going to say the Eagles win and game stays under 50.5, yup it’s a Christmas Eve parlay. Why not? Hey it’s Saturday night, it’s Christmas Eve, and you know you’ll be watching the game. You’ll probably be drinking a few beers, hanging with your Uncle Dave who can’t stop telling you about the time he beat up a Cowboys fan in the 700 Level in 1979 (“He had the balls to wear a Tony Dorsett jersey in the Vet, what was I supposed to do?”). I love the holidays.

And in case you don’t know, a parlay is a bet where you make two (or more) bets and if they all win then you win your bet, in this case you would parlay the Eagles +1.5 and UNDER 50.5 and this bet will get you a payout of around 2.5 times your bet (payout depends on the individual wager odds). But if either end of the parlay loses, you lose your bet, so there is a risk associated with the reward.  Here’s a good parlay calculator if you want to find out more.

Let's hope the Eagles give us a Merry Christmas.

The big unknown this week is if the Giants win in the early game then the Eagles will be eliminated from the playoff picture. But I think in either case (Giants win or lose) the Eagles will come to play in Dallas.

These teams are very similar, Eagles are 11th in offense, 12th in defense, Dallas is 9th in offense, 15th in defense. But I think the X factor in this game is the running game. Dallas is without rookie sensation DeMarco Murray (OUT) and Felix Jones is banged up pretty good with a hamstring injury. Jones missed practice this week and is a game-time decision (the Cowboys say he will play, but who knows how healthy he will be). Sammy Morris is on stand-by to handle the rushing duties in case Jones can’t go.

That plays into the Eagles favor, it lets them put more focus on Romo and the passing game. The Eagles do ok with Romo, in eight career games vs. the Eagles he has 11 TD’s and 11 INT’s. Yeah, Tony is playing great ball the past two weeks, and is having a pretty good season. But the Eagles are 11th vs. the pass, and #1 pass rushing team in the NFL (Dallas has the #10 ranked pass protection). If Babin and the boys can pressure Romo, I don’t see him having a very productive day. And with no running game to fall back on, it could be trouble for the Cowboys. Asante Samuel is out and that could hurt, but I think the Eagles will be ok in the defensive backfield (DRC gets the start in place of Asante? Oh boy).

The Eagles on offense should just be Shady all day, he got 185 yards rushing in the first meeting. Why change what works. Dallas is middle of the league in rush defense (16th overall). Brandon Jacobs got 101 yards and 2 TD’s in the Giants win in Dallas two weeks ago. Just give the ball to Shady!

Shady as a running threat will open up the game for Mike Vick. I think Vick will have a good game (250 yards passing, 2 TDs?), DeMarcus Ware is hurting but should play but anything less than 100% of DeMarcus Ware is a good thing for opponents.

It’s Christmas Eve and I think the fat man will give you something to smile about, no not Santa Claus, Andy Reid. How about the Eagles continue where they left off in Week 8 and knock off the Cowboys 24-20.

Injuries:
Eagles: CB Asante Samuel is  OUT.
Cowboys: RB Felix Jones is game time decision but should play. LB DeMarcus Ware is probable and should play.

The Line: Cowboys -1.5, O/U 50.5
The Pick: Parlay: Eagles +1.5 / UNDER 50.5

Merry Christmas!!

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 21-17. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me: fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

  • http://twitter.com/fantasource Fantasource

    Saw this Tweet from a Dallas reporter tonight: “@mattmosley: If the Giants beat the Jets, Felix Jones will not play a snap vs Eagles. Jets win, he’s 50-50.”

    Without Jones the Cowboys lose a big threat in the running game.
    But even with Jones playing part-time, and playing hurt, he may not be able to give them much.

    This news doesn’t change my pick, I still like the Eagles and UNDER 50.5.

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