I’m still in Thanksgiving weekend vacation mode (plus that Eagles debacle really killed my Sunday night), so apologies for the quick post. We went 2-1 on Thursday and 15-12 so far this season, let’s get another winner tonight and close out the week in good fashion.
Monday Night Football: New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
We’ve had a pretty good run on Monday Nights this season, going 6-3 with the picks. And most of those times I went with the favorite, only taking the underdog once (Indy, in a teaser in Week 6). Tonight, the Saints are my pick. Simply because they dominate at home. 4-0 on the season (and 4-0 against the spread). Scoring 40 points per game at home (62 points v. Colts definitely helped pad that stat); and only allowing 17 points. The Saints are tough in the Superdome, excuse me, the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. And coming off a bye week? They’ll be ready.
The Giants are in a tough spot in this one. They’re coming off two straight losses (Eagles and 49ers) and now they continue their death march into New Orleans. This is game four of a six game stretch that everyone thought would doom New York to 2nd place. Tonight is the night that prediction comes true.
A loss tonight will drop the Giants to 6-5 and put them in 2nd place behind the 7-4 Cowboys. On the other side, the 7-3 Saints need a win to stay alone at the top of the NFC South, ahead of the 7-4 Falcons.
I think the Saints will have too much for the Giants in this one. Eli has worked magic before, and he has led his share of 4th quarter comebacks (and ‘almost comebacks’) but tonight I think the Saints will put enough points on the board to put this game away.
The Giants are #31 in rushing yards per game. So even if they wanted to slow down the pace and try to kill the clock by keeping the ball on the ground, they couldn’t do it.
Vegas doesn’t think the Giants can slow down the game either. The total on this game is 51 points, the highest total for either team all season. And there’s good reason why. The Saints defense is less than average, 23rd overall (20th v. run; 21st v. pass), so Eli should be able to move the ball in the air. And Brees should be able to move the ball for the Saints, too. The Saints offense is solid. They’re #2 in points per game behind the Packers. #1 passing yards per game, #4 overall offensive efficiency. Surprisingly, they’re averaging 4.6 yards per carry (8th overall). They can move the ball in the air, and on the ground when needed, and they can score. And they should be able to do tonight, even against a good Giants defense.
I’m going with the Saints -7.5 points to knock off the Giants (For amusement purposes only. Why do I keep saying it? You already know).
I think the Saints at home off the bye week coupled with the Giants in the 4th game of a tough stretch, and their 3rd road game in 4 weeks could prove too much. How about Drew Brees airs it out, and moves the Saints to 8-3 with a 34-21 win.
**If you decide to take the Saints, you would be wise to buy points and get this line down to -7, or even -6.5. Getting onto the other side of a 7 point line is always a smart move.
The Line: Saints -7.5, O/U 51
The Pick: Saints -7.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): NYG are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
Season Record: 15-12. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.
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