The Degenerate: Week 11, The Friday Pick – Cat Fight

So, today is officially “The Day After I Got Tebowed”. Ouch. Tough loss last night on the Jets teaser. I don’t know what it is, but somehow Tim Tebow finds ways to win. Divine intervention? Maybe. His numbers were terrible, 104 yards passing, 68 yards rushing (20 of them coming on his final TD run). But he got the W.

The Jets let the Broncos stay in the game, and that was their own fault. Mark ‘Game Manager’ Sanchez threw a pick-six and Denver tied the game at 10 with nine minutes left. Later, a stalled drive with five minutes left in the game gave the ball back to Tebow on his own five yard line down by three points.

All I Do is Win, Win, Win...

We all knew what was coming. Tebow drove down 95 yards, a combination of some bad passes, some wildcat rushes, some scrambles out of the pocket, and all of the sudden he evades a sack, scampers 20 yards and scores. Bam! 17-13 Broncos win.

I checked Sportsbookspy.com and saw that Jets minus the points received 76% of the action, that is a huge amount for one side. Of course, as a gambler you live by the adage, “go against the public”. But I didn’t see how Tebow could win this game. Yet, he did. In stunning fashion, high drama, a ‘made-for-SportsCenter’ moment. Spike wrote about it this morning, you may hate Tebow as a QB and hate his mechanics and whatever, but you have to appreciate the dramatics. Me? I’m all in.

I’ll always remember my first Tebow-ing. It took three ugly hours to develop and then it was over in the blink of an eye.

Onto the Friday pick…

Eagles / Giants is always a war

I’m not making a pick in the Eagles / Giants game this week. Without knowing the status of Mike Vick I can’t make a good decision. If Vick plays, and is semi-healthy, I would lean to the Eagles plus the points (plus 4.5 points as I write this).

With Vince Young or Mike Kafka? I’m not as confident.

One side is saying that Vick is playing, other side says he is not. I don’t even know if the Eagles have any clue. FWIW, Howard Eskin, who is as in-tune with the Eagles as any sports reporter in Philly, says Vick will not practice this week, but will play.

The game is Sunday night, the current line is Giants -4.5, if the Vick situation clears up by Sunday I’ll tweet out a play if I like a side or total.

Bet #1: (a.k.a. the “Can you pick an uglier game, please?” pick) Carolina / Detroit UNDER 48 points

So, how so you feel about betting another UNDER? This week we are setting our sights on Ford Field, and looking at the Lions and Panthers. Cat Fight in the Motor City, or something like that.

I’m going UNDER 48 points in this for a few reasons: 

  1. The Detroit defense is very good.
  2. The Lions are banged up, QB Matt Stafford is hurting (fractured index finger on his throwing hand) and RB Jahvid Best is probably out (concussion symptoms).
  3. I think the rest of the NFL has caught up with Cam Newton and the Detroit D could shut him down.

Lions D will be ready to swarm

The total on this game is a little too high for me at 48 points. I know about Calvin Johnson and Cam Newton and Steve Smith and yes, both teams have proven that they are capable of putting up points. But Carolina is coming off a showing last week that was less than spectacular. They got smoked by Tennessee, an average team, with a decent (but not great) defense. The Titans were able to hold Cam Newton to 212 yards passing (0 TD’s) and 55 yards rushing. By keying on Newton they were able to shut down the entire Panther offense. Maybe the league has caught up with the Panthers offense. And now here come the Lions with the #4 ranked defense, and I think they are up to the task.

For the Lions, last week they lost to the Bears 37-13, but it wasn’t the defense’s fault, they only gave up 216 total yards! Blame Matt Stafford for two pick-6’s and the special teams for giving up the Devin Hester punt return TD.

I fully believe that the Detroit defense will shut down a pretty good Carolina offense.

Now when the Lions have the ball, it will be bad vs. worse.

We all know about how good Detroit’s defense is, well as good as the Lions are, Carolina D is the complete opposite. #31 ranked defense, and the 32nd (worst) in run defense.

Cam could be in for a long day

Matt Stafford is hurt, but will play. He has a fractured index finger on his throwing hand and some folks think it will be a problem for him this weekend (NFL analysts see Matthew Stafford’s finger injury as an issue for Lions).

Detroit will probably also be without RB Jahvid Best, who is still suffering from concussion symptoms. That leaves the rushing duties to Maurice Morris. Does that make you comfortable?  You’re relying on a QB with a broken finger and an RB who is only averaging 50 yards per game since becoming the starter.

The Carolina defense isn’t very good. But with Stafford limited and the rushing game missing it’s #1 guy, I think Detroit will try to play a conservative gameplan.

Detroit is right in the thick of the wildcard race. And they have Green Bay (twice), New Orleans, San Diego and division rival Minnesota coming up on the schedule so they can’t afford to take this game lightly.

I’m saying that Carolina comes into Detroit, an injured Matt Stafford does enough to not lose the game, the Lions defense does it’s thing and Detroit gets a 24-14 win to stay UNDER the total.

The Line: Detroit -7, O/U 48
The Pick: UNDER 48 points
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Detroit: 10-3-1 ATS last 14 overall

Last night was a tough loss, let’s get a winner on Sunday.

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 12-10. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

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