The Degenerate: Week 11 Preview and Thursday Night Pick, TEBOW!

Remember back to the fun of three weeks ago, after the Eagles crushed the Cowboys and we were ready to take control of the NFC East. We said that this weekends Giants game was going to be the game of the year, and we would win and get back into first place? I think I’ll quote from my own post that week… “That [Cowboys] game was huge. It got us closer to the Giants, it vaulted us from the ‘and other teams…’ list onto the short list for the NFC title race

Remember the Cowboys game? Wasn't that fun?

Yeah, well forget all that. Now we are in sink or swim mode.

A record of 3-6 with seven just games left. Our playoff chances are getting slimmer and slimmer by the week. That stuff happens when you lose back to back weeks as nine & 14 point favorites. Right now, we are on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. I see a statistic of a 3.6% chance of us making the postseason. And this week it doesn’t get any easier, we go up to the Meadowlands and take on the Giants.

Not only have the Eagles had a rough run of it in the real world, they haven’t done too much to help gamblers who have backed them this season. The Dream Team has been favored every game this season up to this week, and they’re only 3-6 ATS (against the spread). When they actually win a game, they cover the spread, too bad they haven’t won many games this season.

The kicker is that they’ve been favorites of seven points or higher four times (v. Giants, v. 49ers, v. Bears and v. Cardinals), all home games, and they’ve lost them all straight up. I’m trying to dig up how much you would have lost if you bet $100 on the Eagles to win every game on the moneyline (no spread), but an early guess is well over $1000. I’ll try to figure that out and report back in tomorrow’s column.

The good news for us here at The Degenerate is that we got back on the winning side last week, going 2-1 with the picks. Winners on San Francisco and the Packers OVER 50 on Monday Night, loser on the Chargers. I made my last bet on Phillip Rivers last Thursday night, the Chargers are dead to me. No way am I putting any money on them again this season.

This week the NFL throws us a pretty interesting Thursday night matchup, Jets vs. Tebow, I mean the Broncos. I’ll have a pick in that game and a first look at the Eagles / Giants matchup.

Onto the Week 10 review..

Week 10 Revisited

After losing 4 of 5, going 2-1 makes me feel like Einstein.

After a few tough weeks I am happy to say we got back on the winning track last weekend. I can’t blame you if you didn’t follow any of the plays last week since we sucked for 2 weeks in a row, but 2-1 last weekend isn’t bad. it moved us to 12-9 on the season (all of the 2011 picks are documented here). Not great, but still not bad. It’s 57%, still enough to make us a little profit for the season, but that’s irrelevant since this is for amusement purposes only, right?

Chargers -7 over Raiders – this game sucked. If someone informed me that Carson Palmer had an HGH injection I probably would have laid off the game. Seriously, Carson Palmer threw for 300 yards and two TD’s. Michael Bush had 157 yards rushing?

The Chargers were never really in this game, besides a 3-0 lead in the 1st quarter, they never led in the game. Bad showing for the Chargers, and a bad loss for us.  Raiders win 14-17. Loss

49ers -4 over  NY Giants – this one was a little nerve wracking. This was a slugfest, but a little more high scoring than I expected, even though the scoring started slowly. It was all field goals until the 3rd quarter. 12-6 49ers and Eli throws a TD to give the Giants the lead 13-12. 49ers came back with 2 TD’s to take a 27-13 lead.

Eli had one last surge in him, getting the Giants to within seven at 27-20, and driving with a minute left. 49ers needed a red zone stand to get out with the win and the cover. 27-20. Winner

Packers/Vikings OVER 50 – this one was a little too close for comfort. It started off pretty well, the Packers had 14 points before I even sat down on my couch, and then the scoring stopped.

We went into half with a 17-0 Packers lead. I was nervous. But with Aaron Rogers at QB, I knew we still had a chance. And he didn’t disappoint. 21 points in the 3rd quarter. Then it was stuck on 45 points, and it’s garbage time. Here comes Matt Flynn. 10 minutes left, he drives the Packers down for a meaningless TD to put us OVER 50. Packers win, 45-7 final. Winner.

Week 11 Hometown Preview: Eagles @ New York Giants

Opening Line: Giants -3, O/U 47
Current Line: Giants -5, O/U 46.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Underdog is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings. Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

The Giants game is always a bloodbath.

This game is tough to handicap. Mainly because we aren’t sure if Vick is playing. Which is why the line jumped so much. With Vick out the options are Mike Kafka (probably ugh) or Vince Young (definitely ugh). The Giants are for real, FootballOutsiders.com has them as the #8 overall team (#6 offense, #11 defense).

They’re also right in the middle of a tough stretch of games that everyone thought would kill their season. Two weeks ago they knocked off the Patriots on the road as 9 point underdogs. Last week they fought hard in San Francisco as four point dogs and almost pulled off another improbable win. This week they come home and look to keep their lead in the NFC East. Next week it’s @ New Orleans, then home vs. Green Bay and then @ Dallas. Ouch.

New York has had a pretty easy home schedule so far this season, St Louis, Seattle, Miami and Buffalo. But they only have one cover at home, a 12 point Week 2 win vs. Rams as seven point favorites. The Buffalo and Miami games were tight wins (but not covers) and the Giants got knocked off by Seattle as 10 point favorites a few weeks ago.

The Eagles? Well we know their story all too well.

This is a Sunday Night matchup, and the NY crowd will be fired up, they know a win here would pretty much put the final stake in the Eagles season. So expect a raucous crowd (I know, what else would you expect?).

But looking at the trends this seems like a good spot for the Eagles. Road team and Underdogs in this series cover at a pretty good clip, and the Eagles are both.

And last year, we went up there as three point underdogs and then this happened (w/Merrill Reese audio)…

We’ll make a pick in this game on Friday. I’m leaning Eagles and UNDER (seriously).

Thursday Night Football

TNF Bet #1: (a.k.a the “a bet against Tebow is a bet against God” pick): Teaser – Jets pick ’em and UNDER 46

Tebow-mania has hit new heights of absurdity

If you only got your news from ESPN here’s what you know about this game: Tebow Tebow Tebow. Tebow, Tebow Tebow Tebow. (Tebow) Tebow Tebow , Tebow? Jets. Tebow.

Yeah, Tim Tebow makes his national TV debut. NFL Network execs are creaming themselves at the chance to show Tebow vs. the Jets. Big Name player vs. Big Market team. Must See TV. I know I’ll be watching.

I like Tebow, he is a very interesting guy. He has strong beliefs, and he sticks to them. As we’ve seen all too well lately that some people preach one thing and do another (*cough* PSU *cough*), but Tim Tebow seems like the real deal. But that still doesn’t mean I’m going to bet on him.

This line opened at Jets -4, O/U 42.5, and is now Jets -6, O/U 40. All the money is on the Jets. Heck, I think even Mr. and Mrs. Tebow have money on the Jets. Sportsbookspy.com has 84% of the bets on this game going to the Jets. Wow, that’s huge public backing on the Jets minus the points.

But there’s good reason. The Broncos are still an unknown commodity. Tebow has only started 4 games. Yeah, he’s 3-1, but wins over Miami, Oakland and KC aren’t jumping off the page. Those teams have bad defenses (Miami: #21, Oakland #26, KC: #22). The week that they played a team with a decent defense (Detroit: #4) they got shut down, 45-10.

The Jets have a great defense, #2 overall (#2 passing, #5 rushing) and I think they match up well with the Tebow offense (if that’s possible). The Denver passing game is non-existent. Just stick Revis on Eric Decker and that’s that. This will force Tebow to keep it on the ground with whatever types of wildcat plays he plans to run. Add to that both Denver RB’s are hurting. Knowshow Moreno is out (ACL), and Willis McGahee is questionable tonight. So Tebow is out there all alone, his top WR will be all stranded on Revis Island, and his only functioning RB will be playing hurt, if he plays at all. Could be a long night for Tebow.

Whatever you do, just don't blow the game for us, ok?

That brings us to the Jets. They are pretty average on offense, #15th overall. (#13th passing, #14th rushing). LaDanian Tomlinson is out. So it’s going to be all Shonn Greene in the backfield. So I think tonight it comes down to Mark Sanchez and a short passing game. Can he get it done vs the #24 ranked pass defense? I think he can, but with a ball control mentality. I saw an article in the NY Daily News that said Sanchez is basically a ‘game manager’ now. Translation: play conservative and don’t screw anything up.

With the Jets D shutting down Tebow and Sanchez playing ‘game manager’, I think this will be a low scoring game, and the total of 40 shows me that Vegas thinks so to.

Both teams are desperate for a win, The Broncos are 4-5 but only a game out of 1st place in the AFC West, and the Jets are 5-4 and a game out of the AFC EAst. The Jets are also in the mix for a wildcard spot. Denver is playing well, three wins in four games, but they are 1-3 at home. The Jets are 1-3 on the road, so something has to give.

And logistically, the Jets are in a tough position. They played the Sunday Night game vs. New England, now they fly West and play again 4 days later in Mile High (or whatever it’s called), and in this time they have to prepare for the crazy Tebow offense? I still they can do it (In Rex We Trust), but I’m not willing to lay 6 points on the road. I also like the UNDER, so I think I’ll throw out a ‘Thursday Night Teaser of the Week’, how about Jets and UNDER. With the 6 points it will take the lines to Jets pick ‘em, Under 46.

Let’s say Rex and the Jets shut down Tebow, Sanchez plays a conservative game and the Jets come away with a 24-13 win.

C’mon Rex, get it done.

The Line: Jets -6, O/U 40
The Pick: Teaser: Jets pick ‘em + Under 46

Back on Friday with the Sunday picks

 

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 12-9. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

Follow me on Twitter: @Fantasource
Email me fantasource@gmail.com
Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

 

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