The Degenerate: Week 11, MNF pick – Just Bet The Patriots

Well, another loser on Sunday. Not just an average loss, but a ‘blow the doors out’ loss. We had UNDER 48 in the Carolina / Detroit game. Final score? Well, I’m glad you asked, how about 45-38 Detroit. Nice.

For Amusement Purposes Only, right?

It pretty much went the exact opposite of what I wrote up:

  • The Carolina defense isn’t very good. But with Stafford limited and the rushing game missing it’s #1 guy, I think Detroit will try to play a conservative gameplan.” – 5 passing TD’s from Matt Stafford. Slightly incorrect.
  • I fully believe that the Detroit defense will shut down a pretty good Carolina offense.” – LOL, Carolina put up 35 points.

Well, let’s put yesterday’s pick behind us and pretend it never happened. And yes, the Eagles won, and I’m #ALLIN, but I need to wait another week before jumping back into the playoff hysteria.

Onto the Monday Night pick…

Monday Night Football: Chiefs at Patriots

Tonight we have Kansas City visiting New England. We’ve been burned by KC on Monday Night before. On Halloween night, Phillip Rivers blew a perfect chance for a push and fumbled in the red zone late in the 4th quarter, KC ended up winning in OT. Screw Phillip Rivers. But the good news for us tonight is that Tom Brady is not Phillip Rivers. Brady has a better arm, better weapons and a model girlfriend. He won’t blow this one for us.

Wll this be a big night for Welker?

As far as I can see it tonight is not going to be a good night for KC, this one could get ugly.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not a fan of the Patriots. Not since that 2004/05 Super Bowl when they beat the Eagles. And then there was that smugfest 2007 undefeated regular season. Add to that the cocky Boston fans and the media’s love affair with Tom Brady, well it all adds up.

But I do know one thing, love or hate the Patriots you have to admit Bill Belichek knows how to win. And I think in a position like the Patriots are in tonight, they will come out firing and win this game going away. They have the offensive weapons to put a bad teams away early.

New England has had a pretty tough schedule the past five weeks, vs. Jets, vs. Dallas, @Pittsburgh, vs. Giants, @Jets. Tonight they get a breather.

The Chiefs have really come back to earth since they ran off a 4 game winning streak after starting 0-3. They’ve lost 2 in a row, 31-3 to Miami, and 17-10 to the Tebows. They’re now going on the road after 3 straight home games.

All trends are pointing to the Chiefs in this one; Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when getting 10.5+ points. The Pats are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games when favored by 10+ points (via Covers.com).

It's on you, Palko

But those trends don’t factor in one important detail about tonight, Chiefs QB Matt Cassel is out, and Tyler Palko is making his first NFL start. The Patriots knocked off the Jets last week 37-16 and they seem like they are ready to put the division away. Tonight should be an easy win, and a game that Patriots should control from start to finish.

We are looking at a KC team going on the road after 2 home losses, KC is ranked 30th (out of 32) in overall team efficiency, and 30th overall in pass defense. Brady should have his way with that defense tonight.

The Patriots are #4 overall, and #2 in overall offense and #2 in pass offense. Yes, the Patriots are low ranked in defense (23rd) but I think Belichek will be able to draw up some schemes to confuse Palko.

I’m not going to get fancy, I’m not going to say Tyler Palko will find a way to beat the Patriots, I’m not going to say that the Chiefs defense will magically shut down Tom Brady. I’m going with the obvious play here, I’m laying the 16.5 with New England (for amusement purposes only, to be clear).

I’m thinking Brady and Welker have a big night, the Patriots defense gives Tyler Palko a rude NFL introduction and New England gets a big win in front of the home crowd. Patriots win 34-10.

Going 0-3 this week would really suck, and drop me to .500 on the season. Help me, Tom Brady. You’re my only hope.

Thanksgiving picks post coming Wednesday.

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 12-11. You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

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