The Degenerate: Week 10: The Friday Pick, Staying Out West

Well, last night we had another loser on San Diego -7. That makes four losing picks in a row. Ugh.  We were just enjoyed an 8-2 run, but now that’s changed, and it’s been 1-5 the past three weeks. I’m going to keep plugging away and hopefully we can get back on the winning side. (editor’s note: I think the losing streak is hilarious – Spike)

Welcome back, Kevin. I hope you get some snaps.

The end of the week is here. Finally. I’ve been waiting patiently for Vegas to give us a line on the Eagles/Cardinals game, and so far…nothing. This stuff happens all the time, a team has injury issues (usually QB, but sometimes big-time RB or WR) so Vegas isn’t ready to put a line on the game. This time it’s because the Cardinals QB situation is murky, they haven’t commited to a starter. I’ll be honest, whether it’s Kevin Kolb or John Skelton it really doesn’t matter, the Eagles will win, and probablhy win big. I saw someone say the line should be 12, another said 14, a third said 10, I think nine points. But I can’t really handicap the game without knowing what I’m up against.

Anyway, I’m going to breakdown another game I like and if the oddsmakers put a line on the Birds game I’ll put something up here at SpikeEskin.com, or I’ll blast it out on Twitter before Sunday kickoffs.

No bye weeks this week, so we have 16 games this weekend (including last night). But we also have another tough choice to make… “which game this weekend sucks the most?” There are 3 contenders that could be up for “crappiest matchup of the year”…

St Louis (1-7) @ Cleveland (3-5); Washington (3-5) @ Miami (1-7); or Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (0-9). Take your pick. I’m going with Washington/Miami. John Beck vs. Matt Moore? Yeah, I’d rather be watching Law and Order reruns.

Week 10 Pick

Bet #1 – (a.k.a the “Hey look, it’s two teams that beat the Eagles” pick) San Francicso 49ers -3 over New York Giants

This is probably the best game of the weekend. Maybe Patriots/Jets is a better rivalry, but 49ers/Giants is the best matchup.

Can Eli whip up another big road win?

I like this 49ers team. At the beginning of the season (like when they came in to play the Eagles in Week 4) I wasn’t convinced, but now I am. Alex Smith is solid and Frank Gore is a top RB, but the defense is where this team really shines.

49ers are #1 in points per game allowed (14.8), #9 in total yards per game allowed (325), and FootballOutsiders.com has them at #4 in defensive efficiency, #1 vs. rush and #8 vs. pass.

But the Giants are only averaging 88 yards rushing per game anyway, so I think the 49ers will shut them down completely on the ground and make Eli beat them. I like to bust Eli’s balls about not being a big game QB, but he looked pretty good last week at the Patriots. Even so, I still think the 49ers can control him. Without a running game to worry about they can scheme to stop Eli and the pass.

The Giants defense is pretty good too. Even though they gave up 345 yards passing to Tom Brady (I know, Tom Brady > Alex Smith), they’re still pretty good against the pass, giving up only 238 yards per game. But I think the 49ers get them with the run game with Gore and short, ball control passing.

I could see this being a low scoring game, the 49ers don’t put up many points. But in order for the Giants to win, Eli has to beat the 49ers, on the road, after a huge come from behind win @ Foxboro, going out to the West Coast, with a look ahead game on tap against the Eagles next week. That’s alot to ask.

Like Jim Morrison said, “The west is the best.” And I’m staying out west this weekend. San Diego on Thursday night, now San Francisco on Sunday.

I think the 49ers get it done, more so with defense than offense. I’m saying the 49ers move to 8-1, stay undefeated ATS and come out with a 24-14 win.

Let’s get it done, San Fran! Please? I need a winner, like desperately.

The Line: San Francisco -3, O/U 42.5
The Pick: San Francisco -3
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Giants: 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games on grass; 49ers: 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

 

Fantasource

 

 

 

Season Record: 10-9 (ouch!). You can see all my picks for the 2011 season documented here.

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