What a win last night. Wow. There’s nothing more fun that slapping around the Cowboys. Especially on national TV. Birds looked good, 2nd place with a bullet. Bears and Cardinals in the next 2 weeks, then it’s a showdown with the Giants for 1st
place. Hope you all got in your ‘Eagles to win the NFC East’ bet when it was +300 or +240. New odds come out tomorrow, I think we’ll see the Eagles as the 2nd choice. My quick guess: Giants +120, Eagles +150, Cowboys +200, Washington +500.
1-1 yesterday, lost on the Ravens -12, won on the Eagles UNDER. Still hitting at 9-3 in the last 12, so still in the black (for amusement purposes only).
Enough about Sunday, let’s get onto the Monday night pick, Chargers at Chiefs…
I guess if you’re from Kansas City or San Diego, or if you were a fan of the old AFL, then this game really strikes a chord. But I’m from Philadelphia, and I shot my ‘big game, huge rivalry’ load last night with the Birds blasting the Cowboys out of the Linc. But alot of people are foaming at the mouth for this one, and I respect a true rivalry. These team hate each other from way back. This one is a rematch from Week 4 when KC went out to San Diego as 14 point dogs and almost pulled the upset. Chargers managed a tight 20-17 win.
Well, here we are four weeks later and the line is Chargers -3, a huge adjustment from the first game.
When I handicap I like to look at past games to see who a team has played to get where they are at. In this case, KC started
0-3 with some ugly losses and looked to headed for the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. But they’ve run off three wins in a row and now stand at 3-3 and only a game out of 1st place. But lets look closer at those three wins. Week 4 they beat Minnesota 22-17, Week 5 they beat the Colts 28-24 and Week 6 they beat the Raiders 28-0. Only the Raiders win is worth anything and I’m discounting that because it was their first game with Carson Palmer and Palmer and Kyle Boller managed to throw six INT’s. Also in that game they pitched a 28-0 shutout but got out-gained by 82 total yards (getting 2 pick-sixes will do that).
If we look at the Chargers, they stand at 4-2 and in 1st place but have only beaten Minnesota (2-6), KC (3-3), Miami (0-7) and Denver (2-5), with losses to New England and the Jets. So the Chargers are really in the same boat as KC. No real impressive wins on either side. I mean they both beat Minnesota at home by pretty much the same score (KC 24-17, SD 22-17). While San Diego lost to New England on the road they did play them tough for 3 quarters, and they were in the Jets game for the whole game on the road too, so they proved that they can play good teams tight on the road. So I’ll give that some weight.
In a game that is a true toss-up I’m going with San Diego -3 to get the win and cover in Kansas City on Monday Night. The Chargers get alot of flack for never winning the big games, for starting slow, for managing to lose winnable games, etc. But they have talent, at least on offense. Love or hate him Phillip Rivers is pretty good. And he throws to Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. They have a decent running game with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert (questionable for tonight). KC has Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe and a hodge podge of RB’s filling in for injured Jamal Charles (Jackie Battle, Dexter McCluster, Thomas Jones). I think the Chargers get it done. This is a must win for them, and I think they get it.
KC does have a home field advantage, one of the biggest in the league. They’re 8-2 at home in their last 10 games at Arrowhead, and they beat San Diego at home last season, on Monday Night, so that did factor in my decision.
FootballOutsiders.com has them as almost dead even. According to FO, the Chargers are #14 on offense, #26 on Defense, and KC is #25 on offense, #15 on defense. So this game is a true tossup. But I’m looking at this as a matchup of talent and skill players and I think San Diego has the edge. Better QB, better RB’s, better WR/TE combo. I also think they remember Week 4, they will be ready and not get caught sleeping like they did four weeks ago. The better talent wins, and I think the Chargers have the better talent.
I’m saying Norv goes on the road, into hostile Arrowhead Stadium and gets a win to take sole possession of 1st place in the AFC West. Chargers 27 Chiefs 17.
The Line: Chargers -3, O/U 44.5
The Pick: Chargers -3
I’ll give you all one more day to soak in the Cowboys win last night, then it’s onto next Monday Night against Da Bears.
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