The Degenerate: Week 4: The Monday Night Football Pick

Well, Sunday sure did suck. But cheer up buttercup, it’s Monday. You know, ‘Monday Night Football’! A little football, some Jaws and Gruden, yeah, that’ll be the perfect remedy for the depressed Philadelphia sports fan.

So, let’s get settled in on our couches, spark up the fireplace, turn on the 50 inch plasma and watch……… Curtis Painter and the winless Colts head down to Tampa to take on Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers.

Kill me now.

Sports fans, if you thought last weeks field goal-fest in Dallas was a snoozer, wait until you check out the Colts and Bucs this week. If any team has ‘shot their load’ already I think it is the Colts. They pretty much laid it all on the line in a home game as a 10 point underdog last week and almost pulled the huge upset, only to lose on a Steelers field goal as time expired. Killer loss (think about how we felt after the 49ers game, and the Phils/Cardinals game). Can Curtis Painter rally the troops and get them fired up again? Vegas doesn’t think so. The line for this is game up to Buccaneers -10.5, with a Over/Under of 40.5.

I have no idea what I'm doing!

I can't hear you over all the boos.

Basically the linemakers say that the Colts have no shot. But I hear you screaming, “Yo, Fantasource! The 49ers were 9 point dogs, and they beat the Eagles.” Yes, that is true, in the NFL every team has a shot to win any game. And tonight might be a case where the better team wins but doesn’t cover.

The Bucs come into the game at 2-1, and a win will keep them tied for 1st with the Saints. So they have incentive to get this done tonight. The Colts on the other hand are 0-3, and are arguably the worst team in the league (pipe down Eagle fans, we’re not that bad). They have no passing game, and no running game. But their defense is serviceable and that could be the difference tonight.

The Bucs lost to the Lions (who are now a legit ‘good’ team) in Week 1 and have run off 2 wins over the Vikings (terrible) and Falcons (not bad), not an impressive resume, but they’re still laying 10 points?

Yes, the Colts stink on ice. I know that. But right now they are such an unknown, especially with Curtis Painter at QB, that I think they’re worth a shot. They could lose by 30 and I wouldn’t be surprised, but they could just make a game of it. If you look at the offense and defense stats (rushing yards per game, passing yards per game) both teams are almost even. For real, check it out.

This line is one of perception, more than reality. Most people will go with Tampa, simply because of no Peyton Manning, but I think it could be closer than people expect.

I don’t see alot of points being scored. If the Colts are going to win they’re going to play ball control. Short passes

Josh!

Yeah, but can Andy Dalton do this?

and lots of the running game. I think the Colts can make the Bucs keep it on the ground. I mean as much hype as Josh Freeman gets, he has a passer rating of 76. Not very good (Andy Dalton and Sexy Rexy have higher passer ratings). Why is he laying 10 points again?

I like to look at the Don Best Linemakers Poll to get the updated power rankings and match them against the line to find any discrepancies. The latest poll has Tampa at 92.4 and Indy at 85.9, add in 3 points for home field and you get a spread of 9.5. So these guys are pretty much spot on with the 10.5 point spread.

I’m going to throw out a teaser for tonight, it could be the best way to go with this game if you wanted to bet it at all. I’ll go with a two team teaser and I’ll take the 6 points and put them on the Colts and Under (for amusement purposes only, of course).

But in all honesty, I’ll probably be watching the baseball games, or Boardwalk Empire on DVR. And the fans in Tampa will be too busy with the Rays game to care. So if you sit through this one you might be on your own. With a gun to my head, I’ll say Bucs: 24 Colts: 14

The Line: Buccaneers -10.5; Over/Under of 40.5

The Pick: Crappy Quarterback Teaser of the Month: Colts +16.5, UNDER 46.5.

 

Oh, and let’s not forget, Mike Vick set a career high in passing yards this weekend. So there’s that.

 

Fantasource

 

 

 

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

  • Follow me on Twitter – @Fantasource
  • Email me fantasource@gmail.com
  • Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments.

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