The Degenerate Week 4: Groundhogs Day – Eagles vs. 49ers Preview and More…

So, Mike Vick is hurting and he might not play. Or maybe he will. We don’t know yet. Hey where have I heard that one before?

Week 4:

Hometown Preview: Eagles vs. 49ers

I think I’ll just copy last weeks opening paragraph to save myself time…

This Eagles /Giants 49ers game is tough to handicap without knowing the Vick injury situation (obviously). I’m going to approach it as if Vick is going to play. If it turns out he is sitting, then you stay away. Early indications say he will play, but we won’t know for sure until later this week. (get used to this paragraph, I have a feeling you’ll be seeing it alot this season)

Right now I’m seeing Eagles -9 (at Pinnacle), and I have to think this line is assuming Vick plays. I’ll probably be in the minority this week but I like the Ealges laying 9. Yes, San Fran is 2-1, but they’ve beaten Seattle and Cincinati and lost in OT to Dallas. That Dallas loss is a little bit misleading, they were outgained by 266 yards and gave up 427 yard passing, so just because it went to OT doesn’t mean it was particularly a close game in anything outside the score.

Useless trivia: The 49ers did not travel back to San Francisco after playing in Cincinnati last week. They stayed in Youngstown, Ohio for the week.

For what it’s worth, the Eagles have won 5 straight vs. San Fran going back to 2005.

Line: Eagles -9. O/U 44.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Eagles: 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Big Line Move of the Week: Giants at Cardinals

KOLB SMASH!

This opened at Giants -3 then was bet down by the sharps to only Giants -1.5 by Wednesday. I guess the wiseguys didn’t think beating the Eagles was a really big deal so they took the 3 points.

I don’t see the appeal of the Cardinals, they’ve played 3 bad teams (Panthers, Redskins, Seattle), lost to 2 of them (Redskins, Seahawks) and they needed a 4th quarter punt return to beat the Panthers. The Cardinals give up almost 400 yards of total offense per game. Giants are travelling cross country, after a tough division game, maybe the sharps are thinking they sleep walk in this one.

Kevin Kolb gets a test at home against a good defense. If he beats the Giants (after Vick lost to them) you can expect the WIP phone lines to melt on Monday morning.

Line: NY Giants -1.5, O/U 44.5
Game Trends (via Covers.com): Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 Giants/Cardinals meetings in Arizona.

Quick note on betting NFL underdogs:

In 80% of games the team that wins the game also covers the spread.

So, knowing that, if you’re leaning towards an underdog with the points it’s not a bad idea to put some of it on the money line also.
The money line is the odds you get when you bet a game straight up,without a pointspread. Example, this week Houston is -3 vs. Pittsburgh. The moneyline is Houston -215, Pittsburgh +185. That means if you bet $100 on Houston to win, you get your $100 back if they win, but you lose -$215 if they lose. For Pittsburgh (since they are the underdog), if you bet $100, if they lose you only lose $100, but if they win you win $185. So if you like the Steelers, why not go straight up?
History shows that the pointspread doesn’t come into play as often as you might think. You’re making your bet because you think your team can be competitive and stay within the point spread. Of course, if you’re getting 10 points or more, maybe a money line bet isn’t prudent. But laying 7 or less, go ahead and ride the money line too.

Stay informed:

Here’s some more handicappers/gamblers on Twitter who have great info…

  • Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) – I can’t believe I missed him the first time. His stuff is great, and his site (ViewFromVegas.com) is a must read.
  • Joe Fortenbaugh (@JoeFortenbaugh) – Joe writes for National Football Post, mainly about gambling and fantasy football.
  • Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) – Todd works at Caesar’s Race and Sports Book and tweets good analysis of games and the gaming industry.

If you want to see a collection of gambling tweets in one spot just follow fantasource/sharps (it includes all the folks I’ve spotlighted so far, plus a few others)

Study Hall:

Here’s some articles to check out after you’ve finished reading every article on SpikeEskin.com…

Read to learn: National Football Post: Week 3 Revelations (link)
Read for fun: New York Magazine: Michael Schur Gives a Master Class on His Favorite Comedy, Cheers (link)

Tweet of the Week (non-Beat Writer Fistfight Category):

This weeks T.O.T.W (see what I did there) one is from new Flyers goalie Ilya Bryzgalov where he let’s us know his philosophy on life and movies…

http://twitter.com/#!/bryzgoalie30

And then there’s this curious one from Jim Rome. Hmmmm, I grind….

http://twitter.com/#!/jimrome

 

Hey, it’s almost Doc-tober.

Coming up on Friday: The Week 4 picks and some MLB playoff odds.

 

 

 

 

Questions, comments, links to share, etc… You can get in touch with me multiple ways:

  • Follow me on Twitter – @Fantasource
  • Email me fantasource@gmail.com
  • Or just let me know your thoughts in the comments

Connect with Spike

Podcast

Recent Comments