The Degenerate, Week 3: The Monday Night Football Pick

So, the Redskins are going on the road for the first time this season, and it’s the home opener for the Cowboys. Sexy Rexy Does Dallas. Good luck with that, Skins fans.

The Line: Cowboys -3’; Over/Under 46 (for amusement purposes only, may be harmful to your health, keep out of reach of children)

It’s Monday Night Football, it’s Cowboys / Redskins, it’s a big time NFC East rivalry. God Bless America, Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition. But this time the injuries are a bigger story than the actual game. Cowboys (1-1) will be without Miles Austin for sure. Tony Romo has an injured vagina, or broken ribs or something, but he will probably start. Felix Jones and Dez Bryant are questionable and will be playing hurt if they play at all.

Yes, I know Washington is 2-0, but it’s a sloppy 2-0. They had to fight back in the final part of the 4th quarter to pull out a win vs. Arizona last week (KOLB SMASH!) and back in Week 1 Eli and the Giants came into FedEx Field and laid an egg. Now it’s off to Big D to take on the Cowboys.

I’m thinking this game will play out with the Cowboys going a little more conservative than usual on offense, in an effort to try to keep Romo and his band of gimpy Cowboys healthy for as long as possible. The Redskins are going to bring the house and try to knock out Romo early. Cowboys know this and I think there will be a few big strikes, but for the most part it will be dink and dunk short yardage plays. Maybe 8th string WR Kevin Ogletree will make an appearance in the boxscore. And don’t sleep on DeMarco Murray (yeah, I just said ‘don’t sleep’), the rookie from Oklahoma will be just fine sharing the RB load with Felix Jones.

The Dallas defense is tough. After 2 weeks they have the NFL leader in tackles, Sean Lee (Penn State, FTW!), and the NFL leader in sacks (DeMarcus Ware), and they’re 4th overall in yards per game allowed. That won’t bode well for Rex.

I’m not buying Rex Grossman on the road, and I’m not buying Roy Helu and Tim Hightower to be the ones who finally run on the Cowboys defense (2nd in rushing yard allowed after 2 weeks).

The stat animals at Football Outsiders have the Cowboys d-line ranked 4th in rush defense and 1st in pass rush. Their formula is way over my head (hey, I’m from Delco, give me a break. I swam in the Darby Creek as a kid) but it sounds good enough to say the Redskins are in for a long night.

The ghost of Tom Landry* will be proud of this one…

Cowboys 24
Redskins 10

The Pick: Cowboys -3’

(*apologies to Tom Landry and his family if he is, in fact, still alive)

Gambling note: When you see a line like 3′, 7′, 10′ it’s usually smart to buy a half point and drop down to a key number (3, 7, 10). The juice is higher, -120 or -130, but I think it’s worth it.

Also, some places are saying this game is 5’, or even 6’. I am seeing 3’, and even took a screenshot:

Oh… and about that big white elephant in the room called ‘Da Birds’? All I can say at this moment is… Serenity Now. Spike already has a nice write-up on that, so I’ll let him throw gas on that fire.

Tuesday (or maybe Wednesday)… the weekend recap.

Keep your head out of the oven, Birds fans.

 

 

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  • http://twitter.com/fantasource Fantasource

    Gotta give props to Kissing Suzy Kolber for the Rex Grossman “F** it, I’m goin’ deep” image. I stole it, because I love it. It’s always the first thing I think of when I think of Rex.

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